Summary Background Tuberculosis elimination in countries with a low incidence of the disease necessitates multiple interventions, including innovations in migrant screening. We examined a cohort of ...migrants screened for tuberculosis before entry to England, Wales, and Northern Ireland and tracked the development of disease in this group after arrival. Methods As part of a pilot pre-entry screening programme for tuberculosis in 15 countries with a high incidence of the disease, the International Organization for Migration screened all applicants for UK visas aged 11 years or older who intended to stay for more than 6 months. Applicants underwent a chest radiograph, and any with results suggestive of tuberculosis underwent sputum testing and culture testing (when available). We tracked the development of tuberculosis in those who tested negative for the disease and subsequently migrated to England, Wales, and Northern Ireland with the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system. Primary outcomes were cases of all forms of tuberculosis (including clinically diagnosed cases), and bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Findings Our study cohort was 519 955 migrants who were screened for tuberculosis before entry to the UK between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2012. Cases notified on the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2013, were included. 1873 incident cases of all forms of tuberculosis were identified, and, on the basis of data for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis in migrants screened before entry was 147 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 140–154). The estimated incidence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in migrants screened before entry was 49 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 45–53). Migrants whose chest radiographs were compatible with active tuberculosis but with negative pre-entry microbiological results were at increased risk of tuberculosis compared with those with no radiographic abnormalities (incidence rate ratio 3·2, 95% CI 2·8–3·7; p<0·0001). Incidence of tuberculosis after migration increased significantly with increasing WHO-estimated prevalence of tuberculosis in migrants' countries of origin. 35 of 318 983 pre-entry screened migrants included in a secondary analysis with typing data were assumed index cases. Estimates of the rate of assumed reactivation tuberculosis ranged from 46 (95% CI 42–52) to 91 (82–102) per 100 000 population. Interpretation Migrants from countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis screened before being granted entry to low-incidence countries pose a negligible risk of onward transmission but are at increased risk of tuberculosis, which could potentially be prevented through identification and treatment of latent infection in close collaboration with a pre-entry screening programme. Funding Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Public Health England, and Department of Health Policy Research Programme.
The incidence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) isolation from humans is increasing worldwide. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EW&NI) the reported rate of NTM more than doubled between ...1996 and 2006. Although NTM infection has traditionally been associated with immunosuppressed individuals or those with severe underlying lung damage, pulmonary NTM infection and disease may occur in people with no overt immune deficiency. Here we report the incidence of NTM isolation in EW&NI between 2007 and 2012 from both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary samples obtained at a population level.
All individuals with culture positive NTM isolates between 2007 and 2012 reported to Public Health England by the five mycobacterial reference laboratories serving EW&NI were included.
Between 2007 and 2012, 21,118 individuals had NTM culture positive isolates. Over the study period the incidence rose from 5.6/100,000 in 2007 to 7.6/100,000 in 2012 (p < 0.001). Of those with a known specimen type, 90 % were pulmonary, in whom incidence increased from 4.0/100,000 to 6.1/100,000 (p < 0.001). In extra-pulmonary specimens this fell from 0.6/100,000 to 0.4/100,000 (p < 0.001). The most frequently cultured organisms from individuals with pulmonary isolates were within the M. avium-intracellulare complex family (MAC). The incidence of pulmonary MAC increased from 1.3/100,000 to 2.2/100,000 (p < 0.001). The majority of these individuals were over 60 years old.
Using a population-based approach, we find that the incidence of NTM has continued to rise since the last national analysis. Overall, this represents an almost ten-fold increase since 1995. Pulmonary MAC in older individuals is responsible for the majority of this change. We are limited to reporting NTM isolates and not clinical disease caused by these organisms. To determine whether the burden of NTM disease is genuinely increasing, a standardised approach to the collection of linked national microbiological and clinical data is required.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
An IFN-γ response to M. tuberculosis-specific antigens is an effective biomarker for M. tuberculosis infection but it cannot discriminate between latent TB infection and active TB disease. Combining ...a number of cytokine/chemokine responses to M. tuberculosis antigens may enable differentiation of latent TB from active disease.
Asymptomatic recently-exposed individuals (spouses of TB patients) were recruited and tuberculin skin tested, bled and followed-up for two years. Culture supernatants, from a six-day culture of diluted whole blood samples stimulated with M. tuberculosis-derived PPD or ESAT-6, were measured for IFN-γ, IL-10, IL-13, IL-17, TNF-α and CXCL10 using cytokine ELISAs. In addition, 15 patients with sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB were recruited and tested.
Spouses with positive IFN-γ responses to M. tuberculosis ESAT-6 (>62.5 pg/mL) and TB patients showed high production of IL-17, CXCL10 and TNF-α. Higher production of IL-10 and IL-17 in response to ESAT-6 was observed in the spouses compared with TB patients while the ratios of IFN-γ/IL-10 and IFN-γ/IL-17 in response to M. tuberculosis-derived PPD were significantly higher in TB patients compared with the spouses. Tuberculin skin test results did not correlate with cytokine responses.
CXCL10 and TNF-α may be used as adjunct markers alongside an IFN-γ release assay to diagnose M. tuberculosis infection, and IL-17 and IL-10 production may differentiate individuals with LTBI from active TB.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The incidence of TB has doubled in the last 20 years in London. A better understanding of risk groups for recent transmission is required to effectively target interventions. We investigated the ...molecular epidemiological characteristics of TB cases to estimate the proportion of cases due to recent transmission, and identify predictors for belonging to a cluster.
The study population included all culture-positive TB cases in London residents, notified between January 2010 and December 2012, strain typed using 24-loci multiple interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeats. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk factors for clustering using sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of cases and for cluster size based on the characteristics of the first two cases.
There were 10 147 cases of which 5728 (57%) were culture confirmed and 4790 isolates (84%) were typed. 2194 (46%) were clustered in 570 clusters, and the estimated proportion attributable to recent transmission was 34%. Clustered cases were more likely to be UK born, have pulmonary TB, a previous diagnosis, a history of substance abuse or alcohol abuse and imprisonment, be of white, Indian, black-African or Caribbean ethnicity. The time between notification of the first two cases was more likely to be <90 days in large clusters.
Up to a third of TB cases in London may be due to recent transmission. Resources should be directed to the timely investigation of clusters involving cases with risk factors, particularly those with a short period between the first two cases, to interrupt onward transmission of TB.
We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to delineate transmission networks and investigate the benefits of WGS during cluster investigation.We included clustered cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) ...tuberculosis (TB)/extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB linked by mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit variable tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) strain typing or epidemiological information in the national cluster B1006, notified between 2007 and 2013 in the UK. We excluded from further investigation cases whose isolates differed by greater than 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Data relating to patients' social networks were collected.27 cases were investigated and 22 had WGS, eight of which (36%) were excluded as their isolates differed by more than 12 SNPs to other cases. 18 cases were ruled into the transmission network based on genomic and epidemiological information. Evidence of transmission was inconclusive in seven out of 18 cases (39%) in the transmission network following WGS and epidemiological investigation.This investigation of a drug-resistant TB cluster illustrates the opportunities and limitations of WGS in understanding transmission in a setting with a high proportion of migrant cases. The use of WGS should be combined with classical epidemiological methods. However, not every cluster will be solvable, regardless of the quality of genomic data.
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom ...(UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, ...particularly in low-incidence settings.
National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection).
We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio IRR 0.75 0.65-0.86) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 3.12-4.19) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 0.69-0.98), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case.
Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Among tuberculosis (TB) patients, acquired resistance to anti-TB drugs represents a failure in the treatment pathway. To improve diagnosis and care for patients with drug-resistant TB, we examined ...the epidemiology and risk factors associated with acquired drug resistance during 2000-2015 among TB patients in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. We found acquired resistance in 0.2% (158/67,710) of patients with culture-confirmed TB. Using multivariate logistic regression, we identified the following factors associated with acquired drug resistance: having pulmonary disease; initial resistance to isoniazid, rifampin, or both; a previous TB episode; and being born in China or South Africa. Treatment outcomes were worse for patients with than without acquired resistance. Although acquired resistance is rare in the study area, certain patient groups are at higher risk. Identifying these patients and ensuring that adequate resources are available for treatment may prevent acquisition of resistance, thereby limiting transmission of drug-resistant strains of mycobacteria.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background. An urgent UK investigation was launched to assess risk of invasive Mycobacterium chimaera infection in cardiothoracic surgery and a possible association with cardiopulmonary bypass ...heater-cooler units following alerts in Switzerland and The Netherlands. Methods. Parallel investigations were pursued: (1) identification of cardiopulmonary bypass–associated M. chimaera infection through national laboratory and hospital admissions data linkage; (2) cohort study to assess patient risk; (3) microbiological and aerobiological investigations of heater-coolers in situ and under controlled laboratory conditions; and (4) whole-genome sequencing of clinical and environmental isolates. Results. Eighteen probable cases of cardiopulmonary bypass–associated M. chimaera infection were identified; all except one occurred in adults. Patients had undergone valve replacement in 11 hospitals between 2007 and 2015, a median of 19 months prior to onset (range, 3 months to 5 years). Risk to patients increased after 2010 from <0.2 to 1.65 per 10000 person-years in 2013, a 9-fold rise for infections within 2 years of surgery (rate ratio, 9.08 95% CI, 1.81–87.76). Endocarditis was the most common presentation (n = 11). To date, 9 patients have died. Investigations identified aerosol release through breaches in heater-cooler tanks. Mycobacterium chimaera and other pathogens were recovered from water and air samples. Phylogenetic analysis found close clustering of strains from probable cases. Conclusions. We identified low but escalating risk of severe M. chimaera infection associated with heater-coolers with cases in a quarter of cardiothoracic centers. Our investigations strengthen etiological evidence for the role of heater-coolers in transmission and raise the possibility of an ongoing, international point-source outbreak. Active management of heater-coolers and heightened clinical awareness are imperative given the consequences of infection.
Despite control efforts, Mycobacterium bovis incidence among cattle remains high in parts of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, attracting political and public health interest in potential spread ...from animals to humans. To determine incidence among humans and to identify associated factors, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of human M. bovis cases in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland during 2002-2014. We identified 357 cases and observed increased annual case numbers (from 17 to 35) and rates. Most patients were >65 years of age and born in the United Kingdom. The median age of UK-born patients decreased over time. For 74% of patients, exposure to risk factors accounting for M. bovis acquisition, most frequently consumption of unpasteurized milk, was known. Despite the small increase in case numbers and reduction in patient age, M. bovis infection of humans in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland remains rare.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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