Developing scenarios to explore possible environmental futures is a widely used tool in social-ecological research. Scenario planners working in environmental systems increasingly enlist stakeholders ...to help develop scenarios, but effectively integrating stakeholder participation with scenario analyses and modeling remains a challenge. Using the New England Landscape Futures project as a case study, we explore how a method for codesigning a scenario elicitation process can be used to help balance the needs of both stakeholders and scientists. To illustrate the design process, we document eight influential decisions made with stakeholder input, describe the competing demands that we negotiated, and outline the rationale for the selected approach. We find that three priorities drove most of our decisions: maximizing stakeholder involvement in the scenario development process, efficient use of stakeholder time, and research needs. The outcome was a robust, intense, and highly structured one-day scenario development protocol that engaged stakeholders in the full scenario development process from initial orientation and identification of driving forces through to fleshedout scenarios narratives and quantitative inputs able to inform land-use simulations. Its deployment in six state-specific workshops was successful in eliciting divergent scenarios that stakeholders perceived as being plausible and relevant. Stakeholder responses to the process were positive, though also reflected the compromises made during the codesign process. Research needs were largely met, though initial expectations likely exceeded what could reasonably be elicited from a stakeholder group in one day. Our experiences highlight the importance of process design and how selection of scenario development techniques should follow from the project objectives, problem context, and stakeholder preferences for engagement activities. The use of a codesign framework that recognizes the challenges involved and engages stakeholders in the design process can act as a shared learning experience and contribute to greater effectiveness and impact for participatory social-ecological scenario processes.
Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power plants can have important "co-benefits" for public health by reducing emissions of air pollutants. Here, we examine the costs and health ...co-benefits, in monetary terms, for a policy that resembles the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. We then examine the spatial distribution of the co-benefits and costs, and the implications of a range of cost assumptions in the implementation year of 2020. Nationwide, the total health co-benefits were $29 billion 2010 USD (95% CI: $2.3 to $68 billion), and net co-benefits under our central cost case were $12 billion (95% CI: -$15 billion to $51 billion). Net co-benefits for this case in the implementation year were positive in 10 of the 14 regions studied. The results for our central case suggest that all but one region should experience positive net benefits within 5 years after implementation.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed replacement of the Clean Power Plan (CPP), targets heat rate improvements (HRIs) at individual coal ...plants in the US. Due to greater plant efficiency, such HRIs could lead to increased generation and emissions, known as an emissions rebound effect. The EPA Regulatory Impact Analysis for the ACE and other analyses to date have not quantified the magnitude and extent of an emissions rebound. We analyze the estimated emissions rebound of carbon dioxide (CO2) and criteria pollutants sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), using results from the EPA's power sector model, under the ACE in 2030 at model coal plants and at the state and national levels compared to both no policy and the CPP. We decompose emissions changes under a central illustrative ACE scenario and find evidence of a state-level rebound effect. Although the ACE reduces the emissions intensity of coal plants, it is expected to increase the number of operating coal plants and amount of coal-fired electricity generation, with 28% of model plants showing higher CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to no policy. As a result, the ACE only modestly reduces national power sector CO2 emissions and increases CO2 emissions by up to 8.7% in 18 states plus the District of Columbia in 2030 compared to no policy. We also find that the ACE increases SO2 and NOX emissions in 19 states and 20 states plus DC, respectively, in 2030 compared to no policy, with implications for air quality and public health. We compare our findings to other model years, additional EPA ACE scenarios, and other modeling results for similar policies, finding similar outcomes. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the emissions rebound effect and its effect on sub-national emissions outcomes in evaluating the ACE and similar policies targeting HRIs.
The effects of acidic deposition in the northeastern US include the acidification of soil and water, which stresses terrestrial and aquatic biota. Driscoll et al examine the ecological effects of ...acidic deposition in New England and New York and explore the relationship between emissions reductions and ecosystem recovery.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Long-term research should play a crucial role in addressing grand challenges in environmental stewardship. We examine the efforts of five Long Term Ecological Research Network sites to enhance ...policy, management, and conservation decisions for forest ecosystems. In these case studies, we explore the approaches used to inform policy on atmospheric deposition, public land management, land conservation, and urban forestry, including decisionmaker engagement and integration of local knowledge, application of models to analyze the potential consequences of policy and management decisions, and adaptive management to generate new knowledge and incorporate it into decisionmaking. Efforts to enhance the role of long-term research in informing major environmental challenges would benefit from the development of metrics to evaluate impact; stronger partnerships among research sites, professional societies, decisionmakers, and journalists; and greater investment in efforts to develop, test, and expand practice-based experiments at the interface of science and society.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Mercury is a global pollutant and presents policy challenges at local, regional, and global scales. Mercury poses risks to the health of people, fish, and wildlife exposed to elevated levels of ...mercury, most commonly from the consumption of methylmercury in marine and estuarine fish. The patchwork of current mercury abatement efforts limits the effectiveness of national and multi-national policies. This paper provides an overview of the major policy challenges and opportunities related to mercury in coastal and marine environments, and highlights science and policy linkages of the past several decades. The U.S. policy examples explored here point to the need for a full life cycle approach to mercury policy with a focus on source reduction and increased attention to: (1) the transboundary movement of mercury in air, water, and biota; (2) the coordination of policy efforts across multiple environmental media; (3) the cross-cutting issues related to pollutant interactions, mitigation of legacy sources, and adaptation to elevated mercury via improved communication efforts; and (4) the integration of recent research on human and ecological health effects into benefits analyses for regulatory purposes. Stronger science and policy integration will benefit national and international efforts to prevent, control, and minimize exposure to methylmercury.
► The patchwork of national and multi-national policy hinders mercury abatement. ► Reducing anthropogenic sources of mercury is an effective intervention. ► Policy challenges are transboundary, multi-media, cross-cutting and interdisciplinary. ► Intentional integration of emerging research will help address policy challenges.
A standard for carbon dioxide emissions from power plants in the United States, known as the Clean Power Plan, has been finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency. Decreases in carbon dioxide ...emissions from fossil fuel combustion have the potential cobenefit of reductions in emissions of oxides of nitrogen, which contribute to the formation of ground‐level ozone. Emissions of ozone precursors may result in elevated ozone concentrations nearby or downwind. Chronic exposure of sensitive vegetation to tropospheric ozone reduces its potential productivity. To evaluate the cobenefits of the Clean Power Plan to sensitive vegetation, we estimate ozone concentrations in the continental U.S. in 2020 with a chemical transport model in accordance with reference and alternative Clean Power Plan policy scenarios, which represent a range of possible approaches to reducing carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The reductions in biomass, or the potential productivity losses, due to the exposure of 4 crops and 11 tree species to ozone are as large as 1.9% and 32%, respectively, in the reference scenario. The least stringent policy scenario reduces these losses by less than 3% for any given species; however, the scenarios consistent with policies resulting in more rigorous nitrogen oxide reductions produce potential productivity losses lower than the reference scenario by as much as 16% and 13% for individual crops or tree species, respectively. This analysis affords the opportunity to consider public welfare cobenefits of a regulation that is designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.
Key Points
Policies to control carbon dioxide emissions from power plants also decrease ground‐level ozone
Decreases in ground‐level ozone can mitigate potential productivity losses to crops and trees
Decreases in potential productivity losses of crops and trees vary spatially across the U.S.
Vitamin D Deficiency in Older Men Orwoll, Eric; Nielson, Carrie M; Marshall, Lynn M ...
The journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism,
04/2009, Letnik:
94, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Context: Vitamin D deficiency is not adequately evaluated in older men.
Objective: The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and identify risk factors for its ...occurrence.
Design and Setting: We conducted a cross-sectional evaluation of 1606 older men in the general community who were enrolled in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.
Participants: A randomly selected subcohort of a large population of men from six U.S. communities participated in the study.
Main Outcome Measures: Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 were measured using mass spectrometry.
Results: Deficiency 25(OH)D <20 ng/ml was present in 26%, and insufficiency (<30 ng/ml) was present in 72%. Deficiency was particularly common among men during the winter and spring (especially in the northern communities) and in the oldest and more obese men. For instance, in Caucasian men in winter or spring who were >80 yr old, did not engage in lawn/garden work, and had a body mass index greater than 25 kg/m2 and vitamin D intake below 400 IU/d, the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was 86%. 25(OH)D2 levels were present in a small fraction of men and accounted for a low proportion of total 25(OH)D levels. The use of vitamin D supplements was reported by 58% of men, but supplement use had a small effect on total 25(OH)D levels and, despite supplement use, low levels remained frequent.
Conclusions: Vitamin D deficiency is common in older men and is especially prevalent in obese, sedentary men living at higher latitudes. Use of vitamin D supplements at levels reported here did not result in adequate vitamin D nutrition.
Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent in older men in the United States, despite the common use of vitamin D supplements.
Anticipating landscape‐ to regional‐scale impacts of land use on ecosystems and the services they provide is a central challenge for scientists, policymakers, and resource managers. Working with a ...panel of practitioners and regional experts, we developed and analyzed four plausible but divergent land‐use scenarios that depict the future of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2060 to address two questions: (1) “How do the magnitude and spatial distribution of ecosystem service provisioning vary under the different land‐use regimes?” and (2) “What are the synergies and trade‐offs among direct human uses, ecosystem services, and habitat quality?” Each scenario specifies the detailed prescriptions for the major uses of the forests, including conversion to residential and commercial development, clearing new farmland, shifting silvicultural practices, and designating forests protected from development. We simulated the land‐use scenarios and their interactions with anticipated climate change by coupling statistical models of land use to the LANDIS‐II landscape model and then evaluated the outcomes in terms of the magnitude and spatial distribution of (1) direct human uses of the landscape (residential and commercial development, agricultural, timber harvest), (2) ecosystem services (carbon storage, flood regulation, nutrient retention), and (3) habitat quality (forest tree species composition, interior forest habitat). Across all scenarios, conflicts occurred between dispersed residential development and the supply of ecosystem services and habitat quality. In all but the scenario that envisioned a significant agricultural expansion, forest growth resulted in net increases in aboveground carbon storage, despite the concomitant forest clearing and harvesting. One scenario, called Forests as Infrastructure, showed the potential for synergies between increased forest harvest volume through the sustainable practices that encouraged the maintenance of economically and ecologically important tree species, and carbon storage. This scenario also showed trade‐offs between development density and water quantity and quality at the watershed scale. The process of integrated scenario analysis led to important insights for land managers and policymakers in a populated forested region where there are tensions among development, forest harvesting, and land conservation. More broadly, the results emphasize the need to consider the consequences of contrasting land‐use regimes that result from the interactions between human decisions and spatially heterogeneous landscape dynamics.
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