Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on ...permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.
Permafrost is warming at a global scale Biskaborn, Boris K; Smith, Sharon L; Noetzli, Jeannette ...
Nature communications,
01/2019, Letnik:
10, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost ...temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the ...amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
The Arctic is experiencing the greatest increase in air temperature on Earth. This significant climatic change is leading to a significant positive trend of increasing wave heights and greater ...coastal erosion. This in turn effects local economies and ecosystems. Increasing wave energy is one of the main drivers of this alarming trend. However, the data on spatial and temporal patterns of wave heights in the Arctic are either coarse, interpolated or limited to point measurements. The aim of this study is to overcome this shortcoming by using remote sensing data. In this study, the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite TerraSAR-X (TS-X) and TanDEM-X (TD-X) imagery are used to obtain sea state information with a high spatial resolution in Arctic nearshore waters in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. From the entire archive of the TS-X/TD-X StripMap mode with coverage around 30 km × 50 km acquired between 2009 and 2020 around Herschel Island, Qikiqtaruk (HIQ), all the ice-free scenes were processed. The resulting dataset of 175 collocated scenes was used to map the significant wave height (Hs) and to link spatial and temporal patterns to local coastal processes. Sea state parameters are estimated in raster format with a 600 m step using the empirical algorithm CWAVE_EX. The statistics of the Hs were aggregated according to spatial variability, seasonality and wind conditions. The results show that the spatial wave climate is clearly related to the dominant wind regime and seasonality. For instance, the aggregation of all the scenes recorded in July between 2009 and 2020 results in an average of 0.82 m Hs, while in October the average Hs is almost 0.40 m higher. The analysis by wind direction shows that fetch length and wind speed are likely the most important variables influencing the spatial variability. A larger fetch under NW conditions results in a mean wave height of 0.92 m, while waves generated under ESE conditions are lower at 0.81 m on average.
Alkalinity generation from rock weathering modulates Earth's climate at geological time scales. Although lithology is thought to dominantly control alkalinity generation globally, the role of other ...first-order controls appears elusive. Particularly challenging remains the discrimination of climatic and erosional influences. Based on global observations, here we uncover the role of erosion rate in governing riverine alkalinity, accompanied by areal proportion of carbonate, mean annual temperature, catchment area, and soil regolith thickness. We show that the weathering flux to the ocean will be significantly altered by climate warming as early as 2100, by up to 68% depending on the environmental conditions, constituting a sudden feedback of ocean CO
sequestration to climate. Interestingly, warming under a low-emissions scenario will reduce terrestrial alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes (-1.6 t(bicarbonate) a
km
) until the end of the century, resulting in a reduction in CO
sequestration, but an increase (+0.5 t(bicarbonate) a
km
) from mid-latitudes is likely under a high-emissions scenario, yielding an additional CO
sink.
Palaeoclimatic reconstructions of the northern Yukon show cooler conditions before AD 1850 followed by gradual warming, and 20th-century temperature measurements indicate decadal-scale temperature ...fluctuations. The impact of climate on regional vegetation and lake systems has seldom been observed on this scale, however. With this study, we provide a sub-decadal reconstruction of regional vegetation and lake-basin development for the past 300 years, covering the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the period of recent warming, in low Arctic tundra. We analysed a short lake sediment core from the Yukon Coastal Plain. The age–depth relationship of the core is based on 210Pb/137Cs validated by AMS radiocarbon dating. We analysed terrestrial pollen abundances as proxies for regional vegetation development, and we used grain size and biogeochemical analyses (TOC, TN, TOC/TN, δ13C) and the analysis of semiaquatic pollen to describe the lake development. Stable abundances of regional pollen taxa between AD 1730 and AD 2012 accompanied by climatic warming indicated that the regional vegetation was not sensitive to climate change. Based on changes in TOC/TN, δ13C and pollen of shallow-water taxa, we reconstructed an increase in lake water depth after AD 1910 that likely followed climatic warming. We attributed this development to climate-driven thaw subsidence in the lake basin. The impact of widespread permafrost thaw on regional vegetation needs to be better constrained in order to predict the limits of vegetation stability and drivers of lake changes in the region.
•High resolution maps of soil carbon in two Canadian Beaufort Sea catchments.•Variable importance varied among the sites and depth interval.•Models reflect the high natural variability of permafrost ...soil properties.•Long-term landscape history causes difference in soil carbon vulnerability.
Soil organic carbon (SOC) in Arctic coastal polygonal tundra is vulnerable to climate change, especially in soils with occurrence of large amounts of ground ice. Pan-arctic studies of mapping SOC exist, yet they fail to describe the high spatial variability of SOC storage in permafrost landscapes. An important factor is the landscape history which determines landform development and consequently the spatial variability of SOC. Our aim was to map SOC stocks, and which environmental variables that determine SOC, in two adjacent coastal areas along Canadian Beaufort Sea coast with different glacial history. We used the machine learning technique random forest and environmental variables to map the spatial distribution of SOC stocks down to 1 m depth at a spatial resolution of 2 m for depth increments of 0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60 and 60–100 cm.
The results show that the two study areas had large differences in SOC stocks in the depth 60–100 cm due to high amounts of ground ice in one of the study areas. There are also differences in variable importance of the explanatory variables between the two areas. The area low in ground ice content had with 66.6 kg C/m−2 more stored SOC than the area rich in ground ice content with 40.0 kg C/m−2. However, this SOC stock could be potentially more vulnerable to climate change if ground ice melts and the ground subsides. The average N stock of the area low in ground ice is 3.77 kg m−2 and of the area rich in ground ice is 3.83 kg m−2.
These findings support that there is a strong correlation between ground ice and SOC, with less SOC in ice-rich layers on a small scale. In addition to small scale studies of SOC mapping, detailed maps of ground ice content and distribution are needed for a validation of large-scale quantifications of SOC stocks and transferability of models.
Permafrost-affected soils are among the most obvious ecosystems in which current microbial controls on organic matter decomposition are changing as a result of global warming. Warmer conditions in ...polygonal tundra will lead to a deepening of the seasonal active layer, provoking changes in microbial processes and possibly resulting in exacerbated carbon degradation under increasing anoxic conditions. To identify current microbial assemblages in carbon rich, water saturated permafrost environments, four polygonal tundra sites were investigated on Herschel Island and the Yukon Coast, Western Canadian Arctic. Ion Torrent sequencing of bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA amplicons revealed the presence of all major microbial soil groups and indicated a local, vertical heterogeneity of the polygonal tundra soil community with increasing depth. Microbial diversity was found to be highest in the surface layers, decreasing towards the permafrost table. Quantitative PCR analysis of functional genes involved in carbon and nitrogen-cycling revealed a high functional potential in the surface layers, decreasing with increasing active layer depth. We observed that soil properties driving microbial diversity and functional potential varied in each study site. These results highlight the small-scale heterogeneity of geomorphologically comparable sites, greatly restricting generalizations about the fate of permafrost-affected environments in a warming Arctic.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Arctic permafrost coasts are sensitive to changing climate. The lengthening open water season and the increasing open water area are likely to induce greater erosion and threaten community and ...industry infrastructure as well as dramatically change nutrient pathways in the near-shore zone. The shallow, mediterranean Arctic Ocean is likely to be strongly affected by changes in currently poorly observed arctic coastal dynamics. We present a geomorphological classification scheme for the arctic coast, with 101,447 km of coastline in 1,315 segments. The average rate of erosion for the arctic coast is 0.5 m year⁻¹ with high local and regional variability. Highest rates are observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas. Strong spatial variability in associated database bluff height, ground carbon and ice content, and coastline movement highlights the need to estimate the relative importance of shifting coastal fluxes to the Arctic Ocean at multiple spatial scales.
In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. ...Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007–2016, and 1995–2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014–2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.
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