In this paper, we performed Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) by using L-moments and Annual Maximum Series (AMS) methods. Time series of volumes and duration of floods were derived using the ...threshold level method for 22 hydrological stations in the Pannonian Basin. For flood definition, a threshold set at Q10 was used. The aim of this research is to derive best-fit regional distribution for the four major rivers within the Pannonian Basin and to provide reliable prediction of flood quantiles. The results show that the investigated area can be considered homogeneous (Vi < 1) both for flood volumes (0.097) and durations (0.074). To determine the best-fit regional distribution, the six most commonly used distributions were used. Results obtained by L-moment ratio diagram and Z statistics show that all distributions satisfy the test criteria, but because the Log-Normal distribution has the value closest to zero, it can be selected as the best-fit distribution for the volumes (0.12) and durations (0.25) of floods.
In this study, we explored the frequency and occurrence rate of maximum river discharges in the Una and Sana rivers, to understand hydrological variations amidst climate change. We categorized ...maximum discharges into severe (Una River M1 > 98.2 m3/s; Sana River M1 > 118.2 m3/s) and extreme (Una River, M2, > 123.4 m3/s; Sana River M2 > 246.4 m3/s) events, and identified trends in these events, crucial for assessing environmental impacts. Our findings reveal a nuanced pattern: both rivers experience an increase in severe events from 58 to 55 and 56 to 54 days return period respectively, indicating complex hydrological dynamics. The trends underscore the significant shifts in annual event occurrences, the evolving nature of river systems and underscore the necessity for adaptive management strategies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Climate change is a global crisis exacerbated by human activity and a matter of urgent concern. There is a significant knowledge gap among primary school students in Serbia, as the topic of climate ...change is barely covered in the curriculum. This study examines their awareness, knowledge and attitudes. Of the participants, 96.6% are aware of climate change, but their knowledge and attitudes vary considerably. Some 80.10% expect climate change to have a significant impact on humans through floods (90%), droughts and temperature increases (85% each). Further results show that schools are a key source of information (35.10%), followed by television (30.10%) and the internet (14.90%). In summary, this study highlights the need for comprehensive, multidisciplinary climate education to address different levels of awareness, encourage informed and proactive responses and engage young voices in discussions about climate change.
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of flood frequency and a spatio-temporal characterization of historical torrential floods in the Šumadija region using water discharge datasets and ...documented events. A chronology of 344 recorded torrential flood events, spanning from 1929 to 2020, illustrates the region’s vulnerability, with a death toll exceeding 43. The study defines the intra-annual primary and secondary peaks of torrential flood occurrences and explains their spatial distribution. Furthermore, the identification of suitable probability distribution functions underscores the necessity of tailored approaches for effective flood risk management in this diverse geographical environment. The study employed Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) and goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) tests, to assess the frequency and magnitude of flood events and evaluate diverse distribution functions. The main results include the identification of suitable probability distribution functions for each river within the region, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches in flood risk management. Additionally, discharge values for various return periods offer crucial insights for informed decision-making in flood risk management and infrastructure planning.
Abstract
Flood frequency analysis was performed on annual maxima series for 90 years (1928–2017) of discharge data recorded at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station on the Sava River. The ...three-parameter distributions (PearsonIII, Log-PearsonIII) are more suitable for modelling annual maxima than distribution functions with only two parameters (Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel). The Mann–Kendall test statistic indicated that there is no statistically significant trend identified in annual maximum discharges or average annual discharges. A positive increasing trend was observed in annual temperature, while annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend which is non-significant. The seasonality analysis found a statistically non-significant weak negative trend in discharge in spring, summer and autumn and a statistically non-significant weak positive trend in winter. During winter, spring, and summer a non-significant negative trend in precipitation was observed, while autumn has experienced a statistically significant increasing trend. Temperatures show a positive trend in all seasons, but only temperatures during the warm period show a statistically significant increase. The results demonstrate that decreasing discharges of the Sava River at the Sremska Mitrovica gauging station are mainly the consequence of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature (increasing evaporation), which is consistent with the results of other studies of the region.
EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS IN NOVI SAD Leščešen, Igor; Basarin, Biljana; Pavić, Dragoslav ...
Aerul si Apa. Componente ale Mediului,
03/2023, Letnik:
2023, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
A direct consequence of the global climate change is the alteration of seasonal precipitation patterns and as a consequences pluvial flood in urban areas becoming more frequent. In this study, ...precipitation patterns for the city of Novi Sad were analysed for the 1961 -2020 period. F or the extraction of extreme precipitation values, the peaks-over-threshold method was applied with the threshold level set at the 90th percentile. For the inspection of time-dependent occurrence rates and assessment of significant changes, a Kernel estimation was applied. For the assessment of the significances of the occurrence rate estimation Cox-Lewis (CL) test was used. The obtained results indicate decreasing trends in occurrence rate and frequency of minor and strong events in the second half of the 20th century. On the other hand, we argue that there is the increase of occurrence rate and frequency of extreme events at the beginning of the new millennia. Regarding the occurrence and frequency of the extreme events a clear increase in occurrence rate and frequency can be observed, especially when frequency is observed as from the year 2000 a total of 11 of these extreme years occurred in contrast to six events prior 2000. The application of the CL test yields a decreasing trend of strong events and increasing trend of extreme events. Thep values are as small as 0.0336 and 0.0034 respectively. The test confirms what confidence bands display, i.e., more and more extreme participations per decade towards the modern times.
For the trend analysis of the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation linear regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests at the 5% significance level were applied. In this study, precipitation data ...from two stations in Serbia for the 1949-2019 period were used. Results indicate that increasing trends of precipitation for the selected station can be observed but these trends were not statistically significant according to MK test. Then again, MK test has shown that only on Palić station during autumn precipitations have statistically significant increase during the observed period with a p value of 0.0441 at the significant level p=0.005.
Droughts are natural hazards that endanger the safety of population, their property and can create serious agricultural and ecological problems over the affected region. An analysis of the ...Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was performed by using the database of sixty years (1956–2016) of the monthly precipitation for the nine meteorological stations in Vojvodina region (Serbia). The SPI has been used for drought determination. The present study investigates the application of k-means clustering methods on the SPI at the 12-month timescale values to detect distinct drought clusters. For the purpose of determining the optimal number of clusters, the Gap Statistics was used. The results show that the total of four clusters (regions) can be identified in Vojvodina: three stations are listed in region 1 (Sombor, Palić, and Novi Sad), two stations in region 2 (Bač and Sremska Mitrovica), region 3 is a single-station region (Bela Crkva), while in region 4, three stations are grouped (Kikinda, Zrenjanin, and Vršac). The Mann-Kendall test has shown that only in region 1 there is a trend in SPI values ranging from arid towards more humid conditions in the 1956–2016 period. In other regions no trend was observed in the data series. These results could contribute to water resources and agricultural planning and management in Vojvodina region and also confirm the usefulness of clustering methods for drought regionalization.
This paper examines temporal and spatial variability and trends of annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovenia and their relationship with three atmospheric circulation patterns represented by ...their indices: North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi), Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi) andWestern Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). Data from 45 precipitation stations were used for the period 1963–2012.Mean annual precipitation varies from 736 mm in eastern Slovenia to 2,518 mm in northwestern Slovenia. A significant annual precipitation decrease (from −3% to −6% per decade) is observed in western Slovenia. Significant negative trends are observed in southwestern Slovenia in summer (from −4% to −10% per decade) and near the Adriatic coast in spring (from −6% to −10% per decade). Non-significant negative and positive trends are observed in winter and autumn, respectively. Results indicate significant correlations between winter precipitation and MOi (from −0.3 to −0.7), NAOi (from −0.3 to −0.6) andWeMOi (from 0.3 to 0.6). Significant We-MOi influence is observed in spring and autumn, while NAOi and MOi influence has not been detected. Annual precipitation and WeMOi are significantly correlated in central and eastern Slovenia, while significant NAOi and MOi influence is observed in western Slovenia (with the larger area covered by MOi influence).
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