We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and ...boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 10
7
kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs—very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.
Signals of volcanic unrest do not usually provide insights into the timing, size and style of future eruptions, but detailed analysis of past eruptions may uncover patterns that can be used to ...understand future eruptive behavior. Here, we examine basaltic-andesitic to andesitic eruption deposits from La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, covering a range of eruption styles, ages and magnitudes. Our work is timely given unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe has increased over the last 25 years. We constrain the timescales of magmatic processes preceding four eruptions: 1657 Cal. CE (Vulcanian), 1010 Cal. CE (Plinian), ∼341 Cal. CE (Strombolian) and 5680 Cal. BCE (La Soufrière de Guadeloupe’s first known Plinian eruption). Using crystal-specific analyses of diffusion in orthopyroxenes, we calculate the timescale occurring between the last recharge/mixing event in the magma reservoir and the eruption. We use backscattered electron images, coupled with EMPA of the outermost crystal rim, to derive magmatic timescales. We model the timescale populations as random processes whose probability distributions provide expected (“mean”) timescales and the associated standard errors for each eruption. This provides a new statistical method for comparing magmatic timescales between disparate eruptions. From this, we obtain timescales of magma storage at La Soufriére de Guadeloupe ranging from 18.8 ± 0.37 days to 361 ± 0.40 days, with no clear distinction between eruption style/size and timescales observed. Based on these data, magmatic interaction timescales are a poor predictor of eruption style/size. This study shows that magmatic processes prior to eruption can occur on relatively short timescales at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. Further to this basaltic-andesitic to andesitic volcanoes can rapidly produce large-scale eruptions on short timescales. These relatively short timescales calculated for volcanic processes at this system constitute a critical new data set and warrant an urgency in enhancing modeling and interpretation capabilities for near-real time monitoring data. These integrated efforts will improve early warning, eruption forecasting and crisis response management for different scenarios, as well as planning for long-term risk reduction.
Les cimetières littoraux de la période coloniale Bonnissent, Dominique; Courtaud, Patrice; Legendre, Yoann ...
Nouvelles de l'archéologie/Les Nouvelles de l'archéologie,
04/2018, Letnik:
150
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Les Petites Antilles sont des territoires insulaires dont les espaces côtiers ont été de tout temps investis, d’où une forte densité de sites archéologiques identifiés sur le littoral et, notamment, ...de nombreux cimetières datant de la période coloniale. L’amplification des phénomènes érosifs côtiers, constatée durant ces dernières décennies (Gassies 1995 ; Fitzpatrick 2010), a affecté certains cimetières, fait qui a eu un grand retentissement dans la société antillaise. Ces sites ont très tôt...
Over the past 9,150 years, at least 9 flank collapses have been identified in the history of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe volcano. On account of the volcano's current unrest, the possibility of such a ...flank collapse should not be dismissed in assessing hazards for future eruptive magmatic as well as non-magmatic scenarios. We combine morphological and geophysical data to identify seven unstable structures (volumes ranging from 1 × 10
m
to 100 × 10
m
), including one that has a volume compatible with the last recorded flank collapse in 1530 CE. We model their dynamics and emplacement with the SHALTOP numerical model and a simple Coulomb friction law. The best-fit friction coefficient to reproduce the 1530 CE event is tan(7°) = 0.13, suggesting the transformation of the debris avalanche into a debris flow, which is confirmed by the texture of mapped deposits. Various friction angles are tested to investigate less water-rich and less mobile avalanches. The most densely populated areas of Saint-Claude and Basse-Terre, and an area of Gourbeyre south of the Palmiste ridge, are primarily exposed in the case of the more voluminous and mobile flank collapse scenarios considered. However, topography has a prominent role in controlling flow dynamics, with barrier effects and multiple channels. Classical mobility indicators, such as the Heim's ratio, are thus not adequate for a comprehensive hazard analysis.
•Successful mass flow simulations with up to two rheological parameters.•Extensive use of field data for model calibration and scenario definition.•Mapping of areas exposed to high discharge debris ...flow, for hazard assessment.
High discharge debris flows in mountainous and volcanic areas are major threats to populations and infrastructures. Modeling such events is challenging because the associated processes are complex, and because we often lack data to constrain rheological parameters. In this work, we show how extensive field data can help model a rock avalanche, and the subsequent remobilization of the deposits as a high discharge debris flow, with a single one-phase thin-layer numerical code, SHALTOP, and up to two rheological parameters. With the Prêcheur river catchment (Martinique, Lesser Antilles) as a case study, we use geological and geomorphological data, topographic surveys, seismic recordings and granulometric analyses to define realistic simulation scenarios and determine the main characteristics of documented events for model calibration. Then, we model a possible 1.9×106 m3 rock avalanche. The resulting deposits are remobilized instantaneously as a high discharge debris flow. We show that, for a given unstable volume, successive collapses allow to better reproduce the dynamics of the rock avalanche, but do not change the geometry of the final deposits, and thus the initial conditions of the subsequent debris flow simulation. The location of the debris flow initiation has also little influence on simulation results. However, progressive remobilization of materials slows down the debris flow and limits overflows, in comparison to an instantaneous release. Nevertheless, high discharge debris flows are well reproduced with an instantaneous initiation. Besides, the range of travel times measured for other significant debris flows in the Prêcheur river is consistent with our simulation results.
Gravitational instabilities can be significant threats to populations and infrastructure. For hazard assessment, it is important to estimate the geometry and volume of potential unstable masses. This ...characterization can be particularly difficult in volcanic contexts due to the succession of deposition and erosion phases. Indeed, it results in complex layering geometries in which the interfaces between geological layers may be neither parallel nor planar. Geometry characterization is all the more complex when unstable masses are located in steep and hard to access landscapes, which limits data acquisition. In this work, we show how remote observations can be used to estimate the surface envelope of an unstable mass on a volcanic cliff. We use ortho-photographs, aerial views and topographic surveys to (i) describe the different geological units of the cliff, (ii) characterize the stability of geological units, (iii) infer the paleo-morphology of the site and (iv) estimate potential unstable volumes. We investigate the Samperre cliff in Martinique (Lesser Antilles, French West Indies) as a study site, where recurrent destabilizations since at least 1988 have produced debris flows that threaten populations and infrastructure. Our analysis suggests that the destabilizations occurring on the cliff may be associated with the re-opening of a paleo-valley filled by pyroclastic materials. We estimate that between 3.5×106 and 8.3×106 m3 could still be mobilized by future destabilizations in the coming decades.
Sea-level rise due to anthropogenic climate change is projected not only to exacerbate extreme events such as cyclones and storms but also to cause more frequent chronic flooding occurring at high ...tides under calm weather conditions. Chronic flooding occasionally takes place today in the low-lying areas of the Petit Cul-de-sac marin (Guadeloupe, West Indies, French Antilles). This area includes critical industrial and harbor and major economic infrastructures for the islands. As sea level rises, concerns are growing regarding the possibility of repeated chronic flooding events, which would alter the operations at these critical coastal infrastructures without appropriate adaptation. Here, we use information on past and future sea levels, vertical ground motion, and tides to assess times of emergence of chronic flooding in the Petit Cul-de-sac marin. For RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; i.e., continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions), the number of flood days is projected to increase rapidly after the emergence of the process so that coastal sites will be flooded 180 d a year within 2 decades of the onset of chronic flooding. For coastal locations with the lowest altitude, we show that the reconstructed number of floods is consistent with observations known from a previous survey. Vertical ground motions are a key source of uncertainty in our projections. Yet, our satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar results show that the local variability in this subsidence is smaller than the uncertainties in the technique, which we estimate to be between 1 (standard deviation of measurements) and 5 mm/yr (upper theoretical bound). Despite these uncertainties, our results imply that adaptation pathways considering a rapid increase in recurrent chronic flooding are required for the critical port and industrial and commercial center of Guadeloupe. Similar processes are expected to take place in many low-elevation coastal zones worldwide, including on other tropical islands. The method used in this study can be applied to other locations, provided tide gauge records and local knowledge of vertical ground motions are available. We argue that identifying times of emergence of chronic flooding events is urgently needed in most low-lying coastal areas, because adaptation requires decades to be implemented, whereas chronic flooding hazards can worsen drastically within years of the first event being observed.
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