AbstractObjectiveTo review the evidence on the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.DesignSystematic review ...and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, Embase, CINAHL, Biosis, Joanna Briggs, Global Health, and World Health Organization COVID-19 database (preprints).Eligibility criteria for study selectionObservational and interventional studies that assessed the effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality.Main outcome measuresThe main outcome measure was incidence of covid-19. Secondary outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 transmission and covid-19 mortality.Data synthesisDerSimonian Laird random effects meta-analysis was performed to investigate the effect of mask wearing, handwashing, and physical distancing measures on incidence of covid-19. Pooled effect estimates with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were computed, and heterogeneity among studies was assessed using Cochran’s Q test and the I2 metrics, with two tailed P values.Results72 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 35 evaluated individual public health measures and 37 assessed multiple public health measures as a “package of interventions.” Eight of 35 studies were included in the meta-analysis, which indicated a reduction in incidence of covid-19 associated with handwashing (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 1.12, I2=12%), mask wearing (0.47, 0.29 to 0.75, I2=84%), and physical distancing (0.75, 0.59 to 0.95, I2=87%). Owing to heterogeneity of the studies, meta-analysis was not possible for the outcomes of quarantine and isolation, universal lockdowns, and closures of borders, schools, and workplaces. The effects of these interventions were synthesised descriptively.ConclusionsThis systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that several personal protective and social measures, including handwashing, mask wearing, and physical distancing are associated with reductions in the incidence covid-19. Public health efforts to implement public health measures should consider community health and sociocultural needs, and future research is needed to better understand the effectiveness of public health measures in the context of covid-19 vaccination.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42020178692.
OBJECTIVE:To assess the effects of an active pharmacogenetic screening policy for antiepileptic drug (AED) therapy on everyday clinical practice and clinical outcomes.
METHODS:We extracted data ...covering all public hospitals and clinics in Hong Kong for patients who were newly commenced on carbamazepine or other AEDs, or were tested for HLA-B*15:02 3 years before policy implementation (prepolicySeptember 16, 2005 to September 15, 2008) and 3 years after (postpolicySeptember 16, 2008 to September 15, 2011). We compared AED prescriptions and the incidence of SJS/TEN between the 2 periods and analyzed adherence to the policy.
RESULTS:A total of 111,242 patients were included and 4,149 were tested for HLA-B*15:02. As a proportion of all new AED prescriptions, carbamazepine declined from 16.2% (10,077/62,056) in the pre-policy period to 2.6% (1,910/74,606) in the post-policy period (p < 0.001) while other AEDs increased. Among patients started on their first-ever AEDs, incidence of Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS)/toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) induced by carbamazepine reduced from 0.24% (20/8,284) to 0% (0/1,076; p = 0.027), but SJS/TEN induced by phenytoin increased (0.15% 18/11,839 vs 0.26% 33/12,618, p = 0.058), and the overall incidence of AED-induced SJS/TEN remained unchanged (0.09% 42/45,832 vs 0.07% 39/55,326, p = 0.238). Test-prescription practice was adherent to the policy in only 26.4% (1,302/4,929) of relevant patients.
CONCLUSIONS:The screening policy was associated with prevention of carbamazepine-induced SJS/TEN without reducing the overall burden of AED-induced SJS/TEN, likely because of clinicians preferring AEDs that do not require genetic screening but may also induce SJS/TEN.
Instagram has more than one billion monthly users, which presents a unique research opportunity particularly in rare diseases or hard to reach populations. This study focuses on acute myeloid ...leukaemia, a rare haematological malignancy and aims to characterise who posts acute myeloid leukaemia-related content and the type of content created. The findings can provide information and a method for future studies, particularly those focused on online or social media based interventions. Acute myeloid leukaemia-related Instagram posts were identified by searching specific and relevant hashtags (#). A content analysis systematically classified themes in the data. A convenience sample of 100 posts (138 photos) were manually extracted and coded. Data are described using descriptive statistics and demonstrated by qualitative examples. The most frequent users in our sample were patients (66%), patient support networks (24%) and professional organisations (10%). Patients who were communicating their health update (31%) were the most frequently posted content and 25% of these posts described a symptom experience. Our findings demonstrate that patients and their support networks are frequenting Instagram and therefore may be able to receive and benefit from tailored intervention, however there is an identified gap in health-organisations participating in this virtual online community.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
For patients in whom statins are not tolerated or effective as monotherapy, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) represent a new class of lipid lowering therapies that ...may reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels by up to 50% and lower cardiovascular events. While an important treatment option, the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9i in Australia remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9i compared to placebo in the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD).
A Markov cohort state-transition model was developed in Microsoft Excel. A hypothetical sample of 1000 individuals based on subjects in the Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk (FOURIER) trial populated the model. With each five-year cycle, model subjects could have non-fatal CVD events (myocardial infarction and/or stroke), or die from CVD or other causes. Follow-up was simulated for 25 years. CVD risk reduction, cost and utility data were gathered from published sources. At current acquisition prices (AU$8174 per person per year), the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was AU$308,558 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved. Acquisition prices would need to be reduced to approximately AU$1500 per person per annum for PCSK9i to reach the arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold of AU$50,000 per QALY saved.
PCSK9i are an effective alternative for those with existing CVD or at high risk of CVD in whom statin therapy alone is ineffective, but are not cost-effective to the Australian healthcare system based on current prices.
•PCSK9 inhibitors are an efficacious alternative for those with statin intolerance.•This is the first cost-effectiveness analysis of PCSK9 inhibitors in Australia.•The analysis was from the Australian healthcare perspective.•The model comprised a secondary prevention population based on the FOURIER study.•At current prices, PCSK9 inhibitors would not be considered cost-effective.
Resuscitated cardiac arrest is associated with high mortality; however, the ability to estimate risk of adverse outcomes using existing illness severity scores is limited. Using in-hospital data ...available within the first 24 hours of admission, we aimed to develop more accurate models of risk prediction using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) techniques, with a combination of demographic, physiologic, and biochemical information.
Patient-level data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for patients who had experienced a cardiac arrest within 24 hours prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during the period January 2006 to December 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The models were trained and tested on a dataset (split 90:10) including age, lowest and highest physiologic variables during the first 24 hours, and key past medical history. LR and 5 ML approaches (gradient boosting machine GBM, support vector classifier SVC, random forest RF, artificial neural network ANN, and an ensemble) were compared to the APACHE III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) predictions. In all, 39,566 patients from 186 ICUs were analysed. Mean (±SD) age was 61 ± 17 years; 65% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Models were evaluated in the test set. The APACHE III and ANZROD scores demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUROC = 0.80 95% CI 0.79-0.82 and 0.81 95% CI 0.8-0.82, respectively) and modest calibration (Brier score 0.19 for both), which was slightly improved by LR (AUROC = 0.82 95% CI 0.81-0.83, DeLong test, p < 0.001). Discrimination was significantly improved using ML models (ensemble and GBM AUROCs = 0.87 95% CI 0.86-0.88, DeLong test, p < 0.001), with an improvement in performance (Brier score reduction of 22%). Explainability models were created to assist in identifying the physiologic features that most contributed to an individual patient's survival. Key limitations include the absence of pre-hospital data and absence of external validation.
ML approaches significantly enhance predictive discrimination for mortality following cardiac arrest compared to existing illness severity scores and LR, without the use of pre-hospital data. The discriminative ability of these ML models requires validation in external cohorts to establish generalisability.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Objective
To forecast the prevalence and direct health care costs of osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Australia to the year 2030.
Methods
An epidemiologic model of the Australian ...population was developed. Data on the national prevalence of OA and RA were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2014–2015 National Health Survey. Future prevalence was estimated using ABS population projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030. Available government data on direct health care expenditure for OA and RA were modeled to forecast costs (in Australian $) for the years 2020, 2025, and 2030, from the perspective of the Australian public health care system.
Results
The number of people with OA is expected to increase nationally from almost 2.2 million in 2015 to almost 3.1 million Australians in 2030. The number of people with RA is projected to increase from 422,309 in 2015 to 579,915 in 2030. Health care costs for OA were estimated to be over $2.1 billion in 2015; by the year 2030, these are forecast to exceed $2.9 billion ($970 for every person with the condition). Health care costs for RA were estimated to be over $550 million in 2015, including $273 million spent on biologic disease‐modifying antirheumatic drugs. Health care costs for RA are projected to rise to over $755 million by the year 2030.
Conclusion
OA and RA are costly conditions that will impose an increasing health care burden at the population level. These projections provide tangible data that can be used to map future health service provision to expected need.
There is increasing evidence that use of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) guidance during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with improved clinical outcomes compared with ...angiography guidance alone. However, concern regarding the cost-effectiveness of IVUS has limited use of this technology worldwide. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IVUS-guided PCI compared with angiography-guided PCI in patients undergoing drug-eluting stent implantation.
A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of IVUS to angiography guidance from the Australian healthcare system perspective. Procedure-related morbidity and mortality were estimated from the literature. Costs were obtained from Australian sources. The population of interest was all-comers undergoing PCI with drug-eluting stent. Outcomes of interest included costs, life-expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for both treatment groups.
In the base case, IVUS guidance was cost-effective compared with angiography guidance alone. With 5% annual discounting, IVUS was associated with increased lifetime costs of Australian dollars (AUD) $823 (USD $597) per person and benefits of 0.04 life years and 0.05 QALYs compared with angiography, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AUD $17 539 (USD $12 730) per QALY gained. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, with IVUS being cost-effective in 99% of 10 000 Monte Carlo iterations assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD $50 000 per QALY gained. In a worst-case scenario analysis, IVUS remained the cost-effective option, with an ICER of AUD $36 651 (USD $26 601) per QALY gained. Exploratory subgroup analysis revealed that cost-effectiveness may be greatest among patients with left main and complex coronary lesions.
Use of IVUS guidance during PCI is likely to be cost-effective compared with angiography guidance alone among patients undergoing drug-eluting stent implantation.
Older people (aged ≥ 65 years) have distinctive challenges with medication adherence. However, adherence and persistence patterns among older statin users have not been comprehensively reviewed.
As ...part of a broader systematic review, we searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, CENTRAL, and the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database through December 2016 for English articles reporting adherence and/or persistence among older statin users. Data were analyzed via descriptive methods and meta-analysis using random-effect modeling.
Data from more than 3 million older statin users in 82 studies conducted in over 40 countries were analyzed. At 1-year follow-up, 59.7% (primary prevention 47.9%; secondary prevention 62.3%) of users were adherent (medication possession ratio MPR or proportion of days covered PDC ≥ 80%). For both primary and secondary prevention subjects, 1-year adherence was worse among individuals aged more than 75 years than those aged 65-75 years. At 3 and ≥10 years, 55.3% and 28.4% of users were adherent, respectively. The proportion of users persistent at 1-year was 76.7% (primary prevention 76.0%; secondary prevention 82.6%). Additionally, 68.1% and 61.2% of users were persistent at 2 and 4 years, respectively. Among new statin users, 48.2% were nonadherent and 23.9% discontinued within the first year. The proportion of statin users who were adherent based on self-report was 85.5%.
There is poor short and long term adherence and persistence among older statin users. Strategies to improve adherence and reduce discontinuation are needed if the intended cardiovascular benefits of statin treatment are to be realized.
Background Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) imposes significant burden of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). Objective This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of FH detection ...based on genetic testing, supplemented with the measurement of plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, and treatment with statins. Methods A Markov model with a 10-year time horizon was constructed to simulate the onset of first-ever CHD and death in close relatives of probands with genetically confirmed FH. The model comprised of 3 health states: “alive without CHD,” “alive with CHD,” and “dead.” Decision-analysis compared the clinical consequences and costs of cascade-screening vs no-screening from an Australian health care perspective. The annual risk of CHD and benefits of treatment was estimated from a cohort study. The underlying prevalence of FH, sensitivity, specificity, cost of screening, treatment, and clinic follow-up visits were derived from a cascade screening service for FH in Western Australia. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to costs and benefits. Results The model estimated that screening for FH would reduce the 10-year incidence of CHD from 50.0% to 25.0% among people with FH. Of every 100 people screened, there was an overall gain of 24.95 life-years and 29.07 quality-adjusted life years (discounted). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was in Australian dollars, $4155 per years of life saved and $3565 per quality-adjusted life years gained. Conclusion This analysis within an Australian context, demonstrates that cascade screening for FH, using genetic testing supplemented with the measurement of plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations and treatment with statins, is a cost-effective means of preventing CHD in families at risk of FH.
Abstract
Context
Cardiovascular disease is a major public health problem and represents a significant burden of disease globally. Lifestyle interventions have their limitations and an intervention ...that will effectively address cardiovascular risk factors to help reduce this growing burden of disease is required.
Objective
Carnosine and other histidine-containing dipeptides (HCDs) have exerted positive effects on cardiovascular risk factors and diseases in animal and human studies. The authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis examining the effects of HCDs on cardiovascular outcomes in line with the PRISMA guidelines.
Data Sources
The Medline, Medline in process, Embase, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health, and All EBM databases were searched from inception until January 25, 2019, for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effects of HCDs on cardiovascular outcomes, compared with placebo or controls.
Data Extraction
Basic characteristics of the study and populations, interventions, and study results were extracted. The grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation approach was used to assess the quality of evidence for each outcome.
Data Analysis
A total of 21 studies were included. Of these, 18 were pooled for meta-analysis (n = 913). In low risk of bias studies, HCD-supplemented groups had lower total cholesterol (n = 6 RCTs; n = 401; weighted mean difference WMD, −0.32 mmol/L 95%CI, −0.57 to −0.07, P = 0.01) and triglyceride levels (n = 6 RCTs; n = 401; WMD, −0.14 mmol/L 95%CI, −0.20 to −0.08, P < 0.001) compared with controls. In studies using carnosine, triglycerides levels were also lower in the intervention group vs controls (n = 5 RCTS; n = 309; P < 0.001). There were no significant differences in blood pressure, heart rate, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or the total cholesterol to HDL-C ratio between groups.
Conclusions
Carnosine and other HCDs may have a role in improving lipid profiles. Larger studies with sufficient follow-up are necessary to confirm these findings and explore the use of HCDs in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases.
Systemic Review Registration
PROSPERO registration no.: CRD42017075354
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