The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model has been commonly used to analyze the spread of infectious diseases. This 4-compartment (S, E, I and R) model uses an approximation ...of temporal homogeneity of individuals in these compartments to calculate the transfer rates of the individuals from compartment E to I to R. Although this SEIR model has been generally adopted, the calculation errors caused by temporal homogeneity approximation have not been quantitatively examined. In this study, a 4-compartment l-i SEIR model considering temporal heterogeneity was developed from a previous epidemic model (Liu X., Results Phys. 2021; 20:103712), and a closed-form solution of the l-i SEIR model was derived. Here, l represents the latent period and i represents the infectious period. Comparing l-i SEIR model with the conventional SEIR model, we are able to examine how individuals move through each corresponding compartment in the two SEIR models to find what information may be missed by the conventional SEIR model and what calculation errors may be introduced by using the temporal homogeneity approximation. Simulations showed that l-i SEIR model could generate propagated curves of infectious cases under the condition of l>i. Similar propagated epidemic curves were reported in literature, but the conventional SEIR model could not generate propagated curves under the same conditions. The theoretical analysis showed that the conventional SEIR model overestimates or underestimates the rate at which individuals move from compartment E to I to R in the rising or falling phase of the number of infectious individuals, respectively. Increasing the rate of change in the number of infectious individuals leads to larger calculation errors in the conventional SEIR model. Simulations from the two SEIR models with assumed parameters or with reported daily COVID-19 cases in the United States and in New York further confirmed the conclusions of the theoretical analysis.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper studies the problem of adaptive fuzzy asymptotical quantized tracking control of non-strict-feedback systems with unmodeled dynamics. A dynamic signal is used to cope with the unmodeled ...dynamics and fuzzy systems are introduced to approximate the packaged unknown nonlinearities. Based on backstepping technique and fuzzy approximation property, a systemic fuzzy adaptive control scheme is proposed. By the utilization of Lyapunov theory, the semi-globally uniformly ultimate boundedness of all closed-loop system signals and asymptotical tracking performance are guaranteed. The main contributions of this work are two aspects: (i) a backstepping-based quantized control algorithm is firstly extended to nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and non-strict-feedback structure; (ii) the semi-globally asymptotic tracking control scheme is independent of the quantized parameter. Simulation results verify the presented control approach.
This paper focuses on the problem of approximation-based adaptive fuzzy tracking control for a class of stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems with a nonstrict-feedback structure. A variable ...separation approach is introduced to overcome the design difficulty from the nonstrict-feedback structure. Mamdani-type fuzzy logic systems are utilized to model the unknown nonlinear functions in the process of controller design, and an adaptive fuzzy tracking controller is systematically designed by using a backstepping technique. It is shown that the proposed controller guarantees that all signals in the closed-loop system are fourth-moment semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded, and the tracking error eventually converges to a small neighborhood of the origin in the sense of mean quartic value. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our results. Further developments will consider how to generalize the proposed strategy to nonstrict-feedback nonlinear systems with input nonlinearities.
In this paper, an adaptive neural decentralized control approach is proposed for a class of multiple input and multiple output uncertain stochastic nonlinear strong interconnected systems. Radial ...basis function neural networks are used to approximate the packaged unknown nonlinearities, and backstepping technique is utilized to construct an adaptive neural decentralized controller. The proposed control scheme can guarantee that all signals of the resulting closed-loop system are semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded in the sense of fourth moment, and the tracking errors eventually converge to a small neighborhood around the origin. The main feature of this paper is that the proposed approach is capable of controlling the stochastic systems with strong interconnected nonlinearities both in the drift and diffusion terms that are the functions of all states of the overall system. Simulation results are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach.
This paper addresses the trajectory tracking control problem of a class of nonstrict-feedback nonlinear systems with the actuator faults. The functional relationship in the affine form between the ...nonlinear functions with whole state and error variables is established by using the structure consistency of intermediate control signals and the variable-partition technique. The fuzzy control and adaptive backstepping schemes are applied to construct an improved fault-tolerant controller without requiring the specific knowledge of control gains and actuator faults, including both stuck constant value and loss of effectiveness. The proposed fault-tolerant controller ensures that all signals in the closed-loop system are semiglobally practically finite-time stable and the tracking error remains in a small neighborhood of the origin after a finite period of time. The developed control method is verified through two numerical examples.
In this study, an individual-based epidemic model, considering latent-infectious-recovery periods, is presented. The analytic solution of the model in the form of recursive formulae with a ...time-dependent transmission coefficient is derived and implanted in Excel. The simulated epidemic curves from the model fit very well with the daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China and New York City (NYC), USA. These simulations show that the transmission rate of NYC’s COVID-19 is nearly 30% greater than the transmission rate of Wuhan’s COVID-19, and that the actual number of cumulative infected people in NYC is around 9 times the reported number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in NYC. Results from this study also provide important information about latent period, infectious period and lockdown efficiency.
This paper focuses on adaptive fuzzy tracking control for a class of uncertain single-input /single-output nonlinear strict-feedback systems. Fuzzy logic systems are directly used to approximate ...unknown and desired control signals and a novel direct adaptive fuzzy tracking controller is constructed via backstepping. The proposed adaptive fuzzy controller guarantees that the output of the closed-loop system converges to a small neighborhood of the reference signal and all the signals in the closed-loop system remain bounded. A main advantage of the proposed controller is that it contains only one adaptive parameter that needs to be updated online. Finally, an example is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
This paper considers the problem of adaptive neural control of stochastic nonlinear systems in nonstrict-feedback form with unknown backlash-like hysteresis nonlinearities. To overcome the design ...difficulty of nonstrict-feedback structure, variable separation technique is used to decompose the unknown functions of all state variables into a sum of smooth functions of each error dynamic. By combining radial basis function neural networks' universal approximation capability with an adaptive backstepping technique, an adaptive neural control algorithm is proposed. It is shown that the proposed controller guarantees that all the signals in the closed-loop system are four-moment semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded, and the tracking error eventually converges to a small neighborhood of the origin in the sense of mean quartic value. Simulation results further show the effectiveness of the presented control scheme.
A complex disease generally results not from malfunction of individual molecules but from dysfunction of the relevant system or network, which dynamically changes with time and conditions. Thus, ...estimating a condition-specific network from a single sample is crucial to elucidating the molecular mechanisms of complex diseases at the system level. However, there is currently no effective way to construct such an individual-specific network by expression profiling of a single sample because of the requirement of multiple samples for computing correlations. We developed here with a statistical method, i.e. a sample-specific network (SSN) method, which allows us to construct individual-specific networks based on molecular expressions of a single sample. Using this method, we can characterize various human diseases at a network level. In particular, such SSNs can lead to the identification of individual-specific disease modules as well as driver genes, even without gene sequencing information. Extensive analysis by using the Cancer Genome Atlas data not only demonstrated the effectiveness of the method, but also found new individual-specific driver genes and network patterns for various types of cancer. Biological experiments on drug resistance further validated one important advantage of our method over the traditional methods, i.e. we can even identify such drug resistance genes that actually have no clear differential expression between samples with and without the resistance, due to the additional network information.
Urban land use information plays an essential role in a wide variety of urban planning and environmental monitoring processes. During the past few decades, with the rapid technological development of ...remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial big data, numerous methods have been developed to identify urban land use at a fine scale. Points-of-interest (POIs) have been widely used to extract information pertaining to urban land use types and functional zones. However, it is difficult to quantify the relationship between spatial distributions of POIs and regional land use types due to a lack of reliable models. Previous methods may ignore abundant spatial features that can be extracted from POIs. In this study, we establish an innovative framework that detects urban land use distributions at the scale of traffic analysis zones (TAZs) by integrating Baidu POIs and a Word2Vec model. This framework was implemented using a Google open-source model of a deep-learning language in 2013. First, data for the Pearl River Delta (PRD) are transformed into a TAZ-POI corpus using a greedy algorithm by considering the spatial distributions of TAZs and inner POIs. Then, high-dimensional characteristic vectors of POIs and TAZs are extracted using the Word2Vec model. Finally, to validate the reliability of the POI/TAZ vectors, we implement a K-Means-based clustering model to analyze correlations between the POI/TAZ vectors and deploy TAZ vectors to identify urban land use types using a random forest algorithm (RFA) model. Compared with some state-of-the-art probabilistic topic models (PTMs), the proposed method can efficiently obtain the highest accuracy (OA = 0.8728, kappa = 0.8399). Moreover, the results can be used to help urban planners to monitor dynamic urban land use and evaluate the impact of urban planning schemes.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, GIS, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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