Integration of external control data, with patient-level information, in clinical trials has the potential to accelerate the development of new treatments in neuro-oncology by contextualising ...single-arm studies and improving decision making (eg, early stopping decisions). Based on a series of presentations at the 2020 Clinical Trials Think Tank hosted by the Society of Neuro-Oncology, we provide an overview on the use of external control data representative of the standard of care in the design and analysis of clinical trials. High-quality patient-level records, rigorous methods, and validation analyses are necessary to effectively leverage external data. We review study designs, statistical methods, risks, and potential distortions in using external data from completed trials and real-world data, as well as data sources, data sharing models, ongoing work, and applications in glioblastoma.
Abstract
Patient-level data from completed clinical studies or electronic health records can be used in the design and analysis of clinical trials. However, these external data can bias the ...evaluation of the experimental treatment when the statistical design does not appropriately account for potential confounders. In this work, we introduce a hybrid clinical trial design that combines the use of external control datasets and randomization to experimental and control arms, with the aim of producing efficient inference on the experimental treatment effects. Our analysis of the hybrid trial design includes scenarios where the distributions of measured and unmeasured prognostic patient characteristics differ across studies. Using simulations and datasets from clinical studies in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma, we illustrate the potential advantages of hybrid trial designs compared to externally controlled trials and randomized trial designs.
Abstract
Background
External control (EC) data from completed clinical trials and electronic health records can be valuable for the design and analysis of future clinical trials. We discuss the use ...of EC data for early stopping decisions in randomized clinical trials (RCTs).
Methods
We specify interim analyses (IAs) approaches for RCTs, which allow investigators to integrate external data into early futility stopping decisions. IAs utilize predictions based on early data from the RCT, possibly combined with external data. These predictions at IAs express the probability that the trial will generate significant evidence of positive treatment effects. The trial is discontinued if this predictive probability becomes smaller than a prespecified threshold. We quantify efficiency gains and risks associated with the integration of external data into interim decisions. We then analyze a collection of glioblastoma (GBM) data sets, to investigate if the balance of efficiency gains and risks justify the integration of external data into the IAs of future GBM RCTs.
Results
Our analyses illustrate the importance of accounting for potential differences between the distributions of prognostic variables in the RCT and in the external data to effectively leverage external data for interim decisions. Using GBM data sets, we estimate that the integration of external data increases the probability of early stopping of ineffective experimental treatments by up to 25% compared to IAs that do not leverage external data. Additionally, we observe a reduction of the probability of early discontinuation for effective experimental treatments, which improves the RCT power.
Conclusion
Leveraging external data for IAs in RCTs can support early stopping decisions and reduce the number of enrolled patients when the experimental treatment is ineffective.
The analysis of big healthcare data has enormous potential as a tool for advancing oncology drug development and patient treatment, particularly in the context of precision medicine. However, there ...are challenges in organizing, sharing, integrating, and making these data readily accessible to the research community. This review presents five case studies illustrating various successful approaches to addressing such challenges. These efforts are CancerLinQ, the American Association for Cancer Research Project GENIE, Project Data Sphere, the National Cancer Institute Genomic Data Commons, and the Veterans Health Administration Clinical Data Initiative. Critical factors in the development of these systems include attention to the use of robust pipelines for data aggregation, common data models, data deidentification to enable multiple uses, integration of data collection into physician workflows, terminology standardization and attention to interoperability, extensive quality assurance and quality control activity, incorporation of multiple data types, and understanding how data resources can be best applied. By describing some of the emerging resources, we hope to inspire consideration of the secondary use of such data at the earliest possible step to ensure the proper sharing of data in order to generate insights that advance the understanding and the treatment of cancer.
Abstract
We created a database of reconstructed patient-level data from published clinical trials that includes multiple time-to-event outcomes such as overall survival and progression-free survival. ...Outcomes were extracted from Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves reported in 153 oncology Phase III clinical trial publications identified through a PubMed search of clinical trials in breast, lung, prostate and colorectal cancer, published between 2014 and 2016. For each trial that met our search criteria, we curated study-level information and digitized all reported KM curves with the software Digitizelt. We then used the digitized KM survival curves to estimate (possibly censored) patient-level time-to-event outcomes. Collections of time-to-event datasets from completed trials can be used to support the choice of appropriate trial designs for future clinical studies. Patient-level data allow investigators to tailor clinical trial designs to diseases and classes of treatments. Patient-level data also allow investigators to estimate the operating characteristics (e.g. power and type I error rate) of candidate statistical designs and methods.
Database URL: https://10.6084/m9.figshare.14642247.v1
The Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) Patient Registry is a national multi-institutional collaborative effort that will prospectively follow and record outcomes and events in MCC patients. MCC is the ...prototypical rare tumor, and this Registry will trail blaze new methodologies that will enable multiple investigators to examine real world outcome data in real time. Deliverables from the Registry include precise patient stratification into risk categories, identification of best practices, real-world data for drug development programs, revelations about optimal sequence and combinations therapies, uncovering low incidence toxicities, and the generation of novel testable hypotheses. Importantly, the Registry offers a way forward in the yet-unsolved dilemma of drug development for rare tumors, since the Registry's design will allow the creation of highly defined patient-level data that can be used as a robust comparator for single arm phase I and II clinical trials. The MCC Task Force comprises members from academic medical centers, the drug industry, the National Institutes of Health, and the US Food and Drug Administration. Project Data Sphere, LLC provides a secure, open-access data sharing platform and comprehensive support to optimize research performance and ensure rigorous and timely results. The Registry is currently in development and is based on a REDCap database integrated into the host institution's electronic medical record. We plan to have the first patient accessioned on Project Data Sphere's data platform in the second quarter of 2022. Members of the MCC Registry Task Force represent a joint effort of research and clinical investigators from academia, industry and regulatory science to develop the first publicly held MCC registry on Project Data Sphere's open-access data platform. Our hope is that this shared repository will allow investigators to identify new approaches, improve treatment outcomes, shorten the time from discovery to implementation and, ultimately, improve patient lives.
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