We present a new publicly available daily gridded dataset
of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data covering the whole
territory of Slovenia from 1950 to 2018. It represents the great ...variability
of climate at the crossroads between the Mediterranean, Alpine and
continental climatic regimes with altitudes between 0–2864 m a.s.l. We
completely reconstructed (quality control and gap filling) the data for the
three variables from 174 observatories (climatological, precipitation and
automatic stations) with the original records all over the country. A
comprehensive quality control process based on the spatial coherence of the
data was applied to the original dataset, and the missing values were
estimated for each day and location independently. Using the filled data
series, a grid of 1×1 km spatial resolution with 20 998 points was created
by estimating daily temperatures (minimum and maximum) and precipitation,
as well as their corresponding uncertainties at each grid point. In order to show
the potential applications, four daily temperature indices and two on
precipitation were calculated to describe the spatial distribution of (1) the absolute maximum and minimum temperature, (2) the number of frost days,
(3) the number of summer days, (4) the intensity of precipitation and (5) the
maximum number of consecutive dry days. The use of all the available
information, the complete quality control and the high spatial resolution of the grid allowed for an accurate estimate of precipitation and temperature that represents a precise spatial and temporal distribution of daily
temperatures and precipitation in Slovenia. The SLOCLIM dataset is publicly
available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4108543 and
http://www.sloclim.eu (last access: 10 June 2021) and can be cited as Škrk et al. (2020).
To provide perspectives from the HEAT-SHIELD project (www.heat-shield.eu): a multi-national, inter-sectoral, and cross-disciplinary initiative, incorporating twenty European research institutions, as ...well as occupational health and industrial partners, on solutions to combat negative health and productivity effects caused by working on a warmer world.
In this invited review, we focus on the theoretical and methodological advancements developed to combat occupational heat stress during the last five years of operation.
We outline how we created climate forecast models to incorporate humidity, wind and solar radiation to the traditional temperature-based climate projections, providing the basis for timely, policy-relevant, industry-specific and individualized information. Further, we summarise the industry-specific guidelines we developed regarding technical and biophysical cooling solutions considering effectiveness, cost, sustainability, and the practical implementation potential in outdoor and indoor settings, in addition to field-testing of selected solutions with time-motion analyses and biophysical evaluations. All recommendations were adjusted following feedback from workshops with employers, employees, safety officers, and adjacent stakeholders such as local or national health policy makers. The cross-scientific approach was also used for providing policy-relevant information based on socioeconomic analyses and identification of vulnerable regions considered to be more relevant for political actions than average continental recommendations and interventions.
From the HEAT-SHIELD experiences developed within European settings, we discuss how this inter-sectoral approach may be adopted or translated into actionable knowledge across continents where workers and societies are affected by escalating environmental temperatures.
Occupational heat stress has an important negative impact on the well-being, health and productivity of workers and should; therefore, be recognized as a public health issue in Europe. There is no ...comprehensive heat health warning system in Slovenia combining public health measures with meteorological forecasts. The aim of this research was to provide insight into the development of such a system in Slovenia, turning the communication from the current meteoalarm into a broader system that has more information for different social groups. To achieve this goal, the following steps were used: Analysis of summer temperatures and issued meteoalarms, a survey of the general knowledge about heat among the public, organization and management of two stakeholder symposia, and a final survey on workers' opinions on heat stress and measures, supplemented by interviews with employers. Summer average daily temperature distributions in Slovenia changed during the investigated period (1961-2019) and the mean values increased over time by 2-3 °C. Additionally, the number of days with fulfilled yellow (potentially dangerous) and especially orange (dangerous) meteoalarm conditions increased significantly after 1990. The survey of the general public about heat stress and warnings showed that efforts to raise awareness of heat issues need to be intensified and that public health measures should effectively target vulnerable groups. Stakeholder symposia and further surveys have shown that awareness and understanding of the negative effects of heat stress on health and productivity are still quite low, so effective ways of disseminating information to different sectors while striking the best balance between efficiency, feasibility and economic cost have to be found.
Calibration and validation of the LINGRA-N model were performed using herbage dry matter (DM) yield data from field studies conducted at three locations in Slovenia. Calibration was done by ...minimising root mean square error (RMSE) and validation by using RMSE and Willmott’s index of agreement (dw). Calibration of LINGRA-N was not successful for the experiment conducted on permanent grassland in Ljubljana in the period 1974-1993 (RMSE% = 14%, dw = 0.37). Better results were obtained for grass monocultures in Jablje (J) and Rakičan (R) in the period 1998– 2013, with the best fit for cocksfoot (Dactylis glomerata L.; RMSE% = 12%, dw = 0.84). Fifty-year simulations were performed for cocksfoot (J-DG) and timothy grass (Phleum pratense L.) in Jablje (J-PP) and perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) in Jablje (J-LP) and Rakičan. Outliers with very low simulated herbage DM yield were detected only in the second half of the study period and were associated with drought and/or high maximum air temperatures. A time series analysis of annual potential yield values showed a statistically significant (P=0.05) negative trend for J-LP (–24 kg DM ha–1year–1) and J-PP (–29 kg DM ha–1year–1). A change in the variability of the reduction factor for crop growth due to drought was already noticeable.
The climate clearly determines the characteristics of agriculture in terms of favourable conditions for the development of plants and animals. Climate change has a major impact on agriculture, and we ...need at least its analysis for past decades for effective adaptation. The annual scale of meteorological variables is quite rough, much more information is obtained from the monthly scale, for example when using bioclimatic indices and diagrams. Using Griffiths-Taylor diagrams, where each point shows the average monthly value of temperature and relative humidity or precipitation, we showed the change of 30-year averages (1961 to 2020) for six climate stations. Climate change can be seen from the shape of the diagram, an increase in average monthly air temperatures, a decrease in average relative humidity and changed precipitation patterns are visible. With the plot of favourable conditions for a certain plant / animal species, the diagram acquires ecological value. We have shown changes in the conditions for the development of the fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824)) and the growth of sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batata L.). For the fruit fly, conditions improved due to higher temperatures, especially in colder locations. In Murska Sobota, which has the only suitable conditions for the growth of sweet potatoes, the period with favourable conditions is extended, in the last two periods in July and August, ideal conditions also appear. In further research, we recommend an analysis of weather-extreme years, which provides additional information on the variability of the conditions.
Climate changes and the associated higher frequency of heat waves in Middle-European countries will aggravate occupational heat stress experienced by Slovenian workers. Appropriate behavioral ...adaptations are important coping strategies and it is pertinent to establish if knowledge among advisers and workers is sufficient and identify the symptoms experienced by workers. Therefore a survey including 230 farmers and 86 agricultural advisers was completed. Thermal comfort ranged from hot to extremely hot for 85 ± 5 % of farmers working outside and heat stress had a negative impact on well-being (74 ± 6 %), productivity (68 ± 6 %) and concentration (34 ± 6 %). Reported symptoms were excessive sweating (84 ± 5 %), thirst (81 ± 5 %), and tiredness (59 ± 6 %). Women had a higher prevalence of headache (64 ± 10 %) compared to males (47 ± 8 %), higher frequency of fatigue (69 ± 10 vs 56 ± 8 %), and incidents with nausea or vomiting (19 ± 8 vs 9 ± 5 %). 81 ± 4 % of the responders reported that more time is required to complete tasks when the weather is hot. Nevertheless, 61 ± 6 % of farmers have never been informed of the impacts of heat stress and 29 ± 10 % of the agricultural advisers does not include this information in their guidance. This emphasizes the need for increased information and implementation of feasible solutions to mitigate the negative impact of heat stress on workers in the agricultural sector.
The human population is increasing. The ongoing urbanization process, in conjunction with climate change, is causing larger environmental footprints. Consequently, quality of life in urban systems ...worldwide is under immense pressure. Here, the seasonal characteristics of Maribor’s urban thermal environment were studied from the perspectives of surface urban heat island (SUHI) and urban heat island (UHI) A remote sensing thermal imagery time series and in-situ measurements (stationary and mobile) were combined with select geospatial predictor variables to model this atmospheric phenomenon in its most intensive season (summer). Finally, CMIP6 climate change scenarios and models were considered, to predict future UHI intensity. Results indicate that Maribor’s UHI intensity maximum shifted from winter to spring and summer. The implemented generalized additive model (GAM) underestimates UHI intensity in some built-up parts of the study area and overestimates UHI intensity in green vegetated areas. However, by the end of the century, UHI magnitude could increase by more than 60% in the southern industrial part of the city. Such studies are of particular concern, in regards to the increasing frequency of heat waves due to climate change, which further increases the (already present) heat stress in cities across the globe.
In the study the previously calibrated LINGRA-N model was used for a long term simulation (1964–2013) of the herbage dry matter yield (GRASS) and growth analysis of Cock’s foot (Dactylis glomerata ...L.) in Jablje. Changes in the yearly GRASS variability are reflected in the appearance of outliers in the second half of the study period. The biggest reductions in GRASS are seen in the years 1992, 1993 and 2003. These are the driest years according to meteorological variables (high maximum and minimum air temp eratures, low precipitation) and also according to the simulations, with the lowest reduction factor for crop growth due to drought. The potential yield (YIELD) is not linearly dependent on meteorological variables. Some growth compone nts were compared on a daily basis in a dry year (1993) and an average year (1994). In 1993, for instance, 53 % of photosynth etically active radiation was intercepted, against 75 % in 1994. Seasonal development of the actual soil moisture content was linked to the development of the leaf area index and consequently to the mass of green leaves, to the roots mass, to the mass of dead leaves and to GRASS. The results highlight the need for further research, on field and with simulations. As re gards the latter, we have to keep in mind that they inevitably involve various uncertainties.
ABSTRACT
Changes in agricultural droughts were investigated using simulations of soil water deficit (SWD) and actual evapotranspiration (ETA) from a distributed semi‐empirical soil water balance ...model – swbEWA. At European scale, both SWD and ETA did not change significantly between 1951 and 2011. However, significant increases in SWD were found in southern Europe, except in western Turkey, whereas in northern Europe changes in SWD remain small. ETA increased significantly as a joint response to increased air temperature and precipitation in northern Europe.
Using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficients (RPearson), we showed that large‐scale agricultural droughts are influenced by the recurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and by the atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking in different months throughout the year and extreme NAO index (mainly in winter months) contribute to the severity of agricultural droughts. During a negative phase of NAO, storms over the North Atlantic and Europe are less frequent and as a consequence dry weather in Europe is observed. Positive NAO influences agricultural drought in Europe by shifting storms tracks from the North Atlantic onto European continent to more northerly paths, which in turn decreases the amount of precipitation over central Europe.
Large SWDs are mainly influenced by atmospheric blocking. Notably, winter blocking increases severity of agricultural droughts in southwestern Europe, while summer blocking influences agricultural droughts in southeastern Europe. Notwithstanding, the first three EOFs contribute to less than 40% of the total spatial variability of SWD. This shows that agricultural droughts are complex phenomena that can be only partly explained by extreme NAO or by intensive atmospheric blocking.
Workers in agriculture are regularly exposed to heat stress during summer, which can affect reduced labour productivity and income losses. Air temperatures in Slovenia have been rising in recent ...decades, and climate change projections show that this trend will continue along with an increase in the number of days with heat stress risk. Changes in the number of heat waves in central and south-western Slovenia for the period 1961–2017 were analysed as well as the risk of the heat stress for workers during heat waves in the year 2017. The heat wave occurs if the temperature threshold for the average daily temperature is reached or exceeded on at least three consecutive days, with the threshold for the mild continental climate (Ljubljana) 24 °C and the mild Submediterranean climate (Bilje) 25 °C. The WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) index, assessing the risk of heat stress, was calculated from relative humidity and air temperatures. At both locations, the number of days in heat waves increased as well as their intensity, average daily air temperatures were significantly higher than in the first half of the considered period. The time span, in which the heat waves occur, also extended, as until 1990 they did not appear in early June and late August, as in recent years. The calculated values of the WBGT show that for most days in the heat waves in 2017 in Ljubljana and Bilje, the WBGT 23 °C threshold was exceeded practically all day, which shows a high level of heat stress risk for physically intense work. In the case of exceeded WBGT reference values, employers or farmers themselves should take actions to reduce the risk of heat stress.
PDF
