BG Group Lucas, Fred
J.P. Morgan Equities Research Reports,
02/2015
Report
We update our BG Group financial projections for Q4 results and the latest disclosures and forward guidance. We continue to see manageable credit risk, differentiated volume growth in both upstream ...(2014-16E +34%) and LNG portfolio supplies (2014-16E +90%), and a 21% discount to NAV (£11.8) albei...
Royal Dutch Shell A Lucas, Fred
J.P. Morgan Equities Research Reports,
02/2015
Report
Aligning with our recent downgrade of Royal Dutch Shell B shares from OW to N (Big Oil under siege in 2015 – If OPEC is broken, Big Oil's dividend model may also be broken, 16 January 2015, we ...downgrade Royal Dutch Shell A shares to Neutral. Our PT for RD Shell is the same as our PT for RD Shell ...
We show that adjusted for the less severe oil price decline YTD 2014 and compared to 2008, share price reactions in 2008 and 2014 for both key Integrated and OFS names are similar (the market's ...reaction is anchored on 2008/09). However, we caution that the subsequent V-shaped oil price recovery i...
We reset our US natural gas and Brent/WTI oil price forecasts for 2014-16 to align with JPM Commodities' revised price outlook. For European Big Oil earnings and cash flow, changes to the US gas are ...far less material than the deep cuts to our oil price outlook which falls from Brent 2014-15-16 $1...
Q3 preview Lucas, Fred
J.P. Morgan Equities Research Reports,
10/2014
Report
With sentiment towards Big Oil as brittle as ever, a weak oil price has caused the European sector to shed one-third of Q2 outperformance in Q3. We believe that the oil price setting (locked in to a ...channel) is analogous to the period 1994-97. Back then Big Oil was not very growth oriented, but w...
BG Group Lucas, Fred
J.P. Morgan Equities Research Reports,
08/2014
Report
We reset our 2014-16 forecasts following stronger than expected Q2 2014 results (36% above consensus) and updated points of guidance from management. We upgrade our 2014E EPS by 7%, our 2015E EPS ...rises 1% and we raise our 2016E EPS by 2%. We are 4% above Bloomberg consensus for 2014E (120 versus ...
Big Oil, Big Upgrades Lucas, Fred
J.P. Morgan Equities Research Reports,
07/2014
Report
We incorporate the more bullish oil price outlook from our colleagues in JPM Commodities (JPMC) who have raised the firm's Brent oil price outlook for 2014 2015 from $105 to $111/bbl, +6% $100.25 to ...$115, +15%. JPMC also introduce a 2016 forecast of $120/bbl, which replaces the long-term pric...
We approach Big Oil's Q2 results season with a fair degree of confidence given the supportive macro factors, reasonable consensus expectations (albeit still fluid), and outright positive sector ...momentum. We look for earnings to support full year expectations whilst the prevailing macro builds a c...
Investors remain focused on Big Oil's free cash flow growth as a proxy for improved capital discipline and dividend security. We are reassured by continued widespread doubt among investors that Big ...Oil can or will sustain the capex moderation theme – this leaves upside. We now flag a second round...
Many investors see merit in an upstream portfolio bias to long-lived, slow-depletion volumes sourced from LNG, heavy oil and oil sand assets as opposed to rapid-depletion deep-water oil fields. ...Indeed, purer-play names with a portfolio concentration bias to either longer-lived asset type seem to ...
