During the next few decades, changes in rainfall frequency and magnitude are expected to have major impacts on landscape evolution, social, and economic aspects of human society. We focus on seasonal ...rainfall variations by the end of the twenty-first century to define affected landslide-prone areas, future landslide alerts and the impact of landslides on landscape development in the juncture of the Alpine, Pannonian, and Mediterranean region. A moderate and a worst-case climate scenario from CMIP5 global climate simulations were considered to determine the impact of rainfall on the two most common types of landslides in region, shallow and deep-seated landslides. The observed changes in the occurrence of shallow landslides are significant, especially in the winter months, where we can expect more landslide-prone areas compared to the baseline period. Shallow landslides will have a greater impact on the landscape in spring and summer than deep-seated landslides, especially in vineyards.
Rain-on-snow (ROS) floods can cause economic damage and endanger human lives due to the compound effect of rainfall and snowmelt, especially under climate change. In this study, possible future ...changes of seasonality, magnitude and frequency characteristics of ROS floods were investigated for the selected catchments in Slovenia, Europe. For this purpose, five global/regional climate models (GCM/RCM) combinations were applied using the RCP4.5 climate scenario for the period 1981–2100. To determine ROS floods’ characteristics in the future, a lumped conceptual hydrological model Génie Rural à 6 paramètres Journalier (GR6J) with snow module CemaNeige was applied. The results indicate that the number of ROS floods could increase in the future. Moreover, also the magnitudes of extreme ROS floods could increase, while a slight decrease in the median values of ROS flood magnitudes was observed. The strength of seasonality for a high-altitude catchment could decrease in the future. A slight shift in the average ROS floods’ timing could be expected. Furthermore, a catchment located in a temperate continental climate could have a different response to the climate change impact in comparison to a catchment located in a mountain climate with alpine characteristics. Additionally, differences among investigated climate models show a large variability.
It is not clear how projected climate change will impact the hydrological functioning of complex catchments that have significant karst characteristics. Therefore, in this paper we focused on the ...investigation of the low- and high-flow characteristics of the karst Ljubljanica River catchment. One smaller (51 km2) and one larger (1135 km2) catchment were selected in order to investigate the projected climate change impact on the hydrological conditions. For the investigation of the hydrological situation in the future, we used a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The model was calibrated using past measured daily data. Using the calibrated model, we investigated the impact of five different climate models outputs for the moderately optimistic scenario (RCP4.5). We investigated the situation in next 30-years periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. Several low and high-flow indices were calculated and compared. The results indicate that a summer precipitation decrease (i.e., 2011–2070) could lead to lower low-flow values for the investigated areas, which could increase the vulnerability of karst areas. Thus, additional focus should be given to water resource management in karst areas. On the other hand, mean flow could increase in the future. The same also applies for the high-flows where flood frequency analysis results indicate that a climate adaptation factor could be used for the hydrotechnical engineering design. However, differences among investigated models are large and show large variability among investigated cases.
Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides ...have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.
The influence of the nickel content and cooling rate on niobium nitride precipitation in as-cast stainless steels were analysed. Niobium microalloying is important for mechanical properties and the ...prevention of intergranular corrosion in stainless steels. However, coarse precipitates can negatively affect steel properties. The precipitation of NbN depends on thermodynamic conditions, which are dictated by the chemical composition and temperature. The thermodynamic computations were used to estimate niobium nitride precipitation. Additionally, segregation models were used to predict precipitation. Three steel batches with different nickel contents (9 wt.%, 4.7 wt.%, and 0.16 wt.%) were prepared in an induction furnace and cast into sand moulds. The polished and etched samples were examined with an optical microscope, followed by a more detailed examination using a scanning electron microscope. An automatic scanning electron microscope analysis of the niobium particles was performed to obtain particle number and size distribution. Primary niobium carbonitrides, eutectic phases, and heterogenous nucleations on MnS inclusions were observed. As the proportion of nickel in the solution decreased, the solubility of nitrogen in the melt increased, which is manifested by a lower formation of primary and eutectic niobium carbonitrides, while MnS non-metallic inclusions played an important role in the heterogeneous nucleation.
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