Black carbon (BC) particles over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau (HTP), both airborne and those deposited on snow, have been shown to affect snowmelt and glacier retreat. Since BC over the HTP may ...originate from a variety of geographical regions and emission sectors, it is essential to quantify the source-receptor relationships of BC in order to understand the contributions of natural and anthropogenic emissions and provide guidance for potential mitigation actions. In this study, we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a newly developed source-tagging technique, nudged towards the MERRA meteorological reanalysis, to characterize the fate of BC particles emitted from various geographical regions and sectors. Evaluated against observations over the HTP and surrounding regions, the model simulation shows a good agreement in the seasonal variation in the near-surface airborne BC concentrations, providing confidence to use this modeling framework for characterizing BC source-receptor relationships. Our analysis shows that the relative contributions from different geographical regions and source sectors depend on season and location in the HTP. The largest contribution to annual mean BC burden and surface deposition in the entire HTP region is from biofuel and biomass (BB) emissions in South Asia, followed by fossil fuel (FF) emissions from South Asia, then FF from East Asia. The same roles hold for all the seasonal means except for the summer, when East Asia FF becomes more important. For finer receptor regions of interest, South Asia BB and FF have the largest impact on BC in the Himalayas and central Tibetan Plateau, while East Asia FF and BB contribute the most to the northeast plateau in all seasons and southeast plateau in the summer. Central Asia and Middle East FF emissions have relatively more important contributions to BC reaching the northwest plateau, especially in the summer. Although local emissions only contribute about 10% of BC in the HTP, this contribution is extremely sensitive to local emission changes. Lastly, we show that the annual mean radiative forcing (0.42 W m-2) due to BC in snow outweighs the BC dimming effect (-0.3 W m-2) at the surface over the HTP. We also find strong seasonal and spatial variation with a peak value of 5 W m-2 in the spring over the northwest plateau. Such a large forcing of BC in snow is sufficient to cause earlier snow melting and potentially contribute to the acceleration of glacier retreat.
Atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols play an important role in the climate system by influencing the Earth's radiation budgets and modifying the cloud properties. Despite the importance, their ...representations in large-scale atmospheric models are still crude, which can influence model simulated burden, lifetime, physical, chemical and optical properties, and the climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols. In this study, we improve the current three-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM3) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) by introducing an additional primary carbon mode to explicitly account for the microphysical ageing of primary carbonaceous aerosols in the atmosphere. Compared to MAM3, the four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) significantly increases the column burdens of primary particulate organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) by up to 40 % in many remote regions, where in-cloud scavenging plays an important role in determining the aerosol concentrations. Differences in the column burdens for other types of aerosol (e.g., sulfate, secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust, sea salt) are less than 1 %. Evaluating the MAM4 simulation against in situ surface and aircraft observations, we find that MAM4 significantly improves the simulation of seasonal variation of near-surface BC concentrations in the polar regions, by increasing the BC concentrations in all seasons and particularly in cold seasons. However, it exacerbates the overestimation of modeled BC concentrations in the upper troposphere in the Pacific regions. The comparisons suggest that, to address the remaining model POM and BC biases, future improvements are required related to (1) in-cloud scavenging and vertical transport in convective clouds and (2) emissions of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols.
This systematic review and meta-analysis estimated the global, regional prevalence, and risk factors of osteoporosis. Prevalence varied greatly according to countries (from 4.1% in Netherlands to ...52.0% in Turkey) and continents (from 8.0% in Oceania to 26.9% in Africa). Osteoporosis is a common metabolic bone disorder in the elderly, usually resulting in bone pain and an increased risk of fragility fracture, but few summarized studies have guided global strategies for the disease. Therefore, we pooled the epidemiologic data to estimate the global, regional prevalence, and potential risk factors of osteoporosis. We conducted a comprehensive literature search through PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus, to identify population-based studies that reported the prevalence of osteoporosis based on the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were used to explore the sources of heterogeneity. The study was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42021285555). Of the 57,933 citations evaluated, 108 individual studies containing 343,704 subjects were included. The global prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia was 19.7% (95%CI, 18.0%–21.4%) and 40.4% (95%CI, 36.9%–43.8%). Prevalence varied greatly according to countries (from 4.1% in Netherlands to 52.0% in Turkey) and continents (from Oceania 8.0% to 26.9% in Africa). The prevalence was higher in developing countries (22.1%, 95%CI, 20.1%–24.1%) than in developed countries (14.5%, 95%CI, 11.5%–17.7%). Our study indicates a considerable prevalence of osteoporosis among the general population based on WHO criteria, and the prevalence varies substantially between countries and regions. Future studies with robust evidence are required to explore risk factors to provide effective preventive strategies for the disease.
The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 5, is now coupled to extensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, called CAM5-chem, and is available in addition to CAM4-chem in the Community ...Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2. The main focus of this paper is to compare the performance of configurations with internally derived "free running" (FR) meteorology and "specified dynamics" (SD) against observations from surface, aircraft, and satellite, as well as understand the origin of the identified differences. We focus on the representation of aerosols and chemistry. All model configurations reproduce tropospheric ozone for most regions based on in situ and satellite observations. However, shortcomings exist in the representation of ozone precursors and aerosols. Tropospheric ozone in all model configurations agrees for the most part with ozonesondes and satellite observations in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere within the variability of the observations. Southern hemispheric tropospheric ozone is consistently underestimated by up to 25%. Differences in convection and stratosphere to troposphere exchange processes are mostly responsible for differences in ozone in the different model configurations. Carbon monoxide (CO) and other volatile organic compounds are largely underestimated in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes based on satellite and aircraft observations. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are biased low in the free tropical troposphere, whereas peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is overestimated in particular in high northern latitudes. The present-day methane lifetime estimates are compared among the different model configurations. These range between 7.8 years in the SD configuration of CAM5-chem and 8.8 years in the FR configuration of CAM4-chem and are therefore underestimated compared to observational estimations. We find that differences in tropospheric aerosol surface area between CAM4 and CAM5 play an important role in controlling the burden of the tropical tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), which causes differences in tropical methane lifetime of about half a year between CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. In addition, different distributions of NOx from lightning explain about half of the difference between SD and FR model versions in both CAM4-chem and CAM5-chem. Remaining differences in the tropical OH burden are due to enhanced tropical ozone burden in SD configurations compared to the FR versions, which are not only caused by differences in chemical production or loss but also by transport and mixing. For future studies, we recommend the use of CAM5-chem configurations, due to improved aerosol description and inclusion of aerosol–cloud interactions. However, smaller tropospheric surface area density in the current version of CAM5-chem compared to CAM4-chem results in larger oxidizing capacity in the troposphere and therefore a shorter methane lifetime.
The abundance and sources of ice‐nucleating particles, particles required for heterogeneous ice nucleation, are long‐standing sources of uncertainty in quantifying aerosol‐cloud interactions. In this ...study, we demonstrate near closure between immersion freezing ice‐nucleating particle number concentration (nINPs) observations and nINPs calculated from simulated sea spray aerosol and dust. The Community Atmospheric Model with constrained meteorology was used to simulate aerosol concentrations at the Mace Head Research Station (North Atlantic) and over the Southern Ocean to the south of Tasmania (Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, Radiation, and atmospherIc Composition Over the southeRN ocean campaign). Model‐predicted nINPs were within a factor of 10 of nINPs observed with an off‐line ice spectrometer at Mace Head Research Station and Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, Radiation, and atmospherIc Composition Over the southeRN ocean campaign, for 93% and 69% of observations, respectively. Simulated vertical profiles of nINPs reveal that transported dust may be critical to nINPs in remote regions and that sea spray aerosol may be the dominate contributor to primary ice nucleation in Southern Ocean low‐level mixed‐phase clouds.
Plain Language Summary
The clouds over remote oceans are often comprised of supercooled liquid droplets, but global models struggle to represent the complex processes that control ice formation in these clouds. One poorly understood, but critical, aspect controlling the liquid‐ice partitioning in these clouds is the abundance of particles that catalyze ice crystal formation, or ice‐nucleating particles (INPs). Observations show that INPs are extremely rare in remote marine environments and are dominated by an oceanic source. However, current global models do not account for these uniquely low INP concentrations and their marine source. We used observations of INPs from two previous field campaigns to evaluate INP concentrations estimated from a global climate model that incorporates particles from sea salt, marine organic matter, and mineral dust. Our results constitute an early evaluation of the potential of present‐day global atmospheric models to successfully predict INP concentrations in the lowest atmospheric level that feeds clouds over the ocean. Extrapolating our approach to higher altitudes, the model suggests mineral/soil dust particles from long‐range transport may also be a critical INP source for marine clouds.
Key Points
Observed marine boundary layer ice‐nucleating particle concentrations were successfully predicted using marine and dust parameterizations
Sea spray aerosol was the dominant source of simulated ice‐nucleating particle populations up to 3–5 km over the Southern Ocean
Mineral dust aerosol was a critical component of model‐predicted ice‐nucleating particle populations present above 5 km
Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This ...makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95 % confidence interval 13.1–15.7 days). The equivalent modelled τe lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.4 ± 2.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer (133Xe) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol (137Cs) tracer. This indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.
The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork ...of the well‐known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of light‐absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and ground‐based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to “brute force” tune the high‐resolution configurations, so short‐term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models.
Plain Language Summary
This study provides an overview of a new computer model of the Earth's atmosphere that is used as one component of the Department of Energy's latest Earth system model. The model can be used to help understand past, present, and future changes in Earth's behavior as the system responds to changes in atmospheric composition (like pollution and greenhouse gases), land, and water use and to explore how the atmosphere interacts with other components of the Earth system (ocean, land, biology, etc.). Physical, chemical, and biogeochemical processes treated within the atmospheric model are described, and pointers to previous and recent work are listed to provide additional information. The model is compared to present‐day observations and evaluated for some important tests that provide information about what could happen to clouds and the environment as changes occur. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are listed, as well as opportunities for future work.
Key Points
A brief description and evaluation is provided for the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model
Model fidelity has generally improved compared to predecessors and models participating in past international model evaluations
Strengths and weaknesses of the model, as well as opportunities for future work, are described
Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global ...weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.
Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the ...Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model-measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model-measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages ( approximately 3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16-27, 35-61, and 19-35%, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71( plus or minus 3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 mu g m-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one-third of which is likely to be non-fossil.
The impact to fusion energy production due to the radiative loss from a localized mix in inertial confinement implosions using high density carbon capsule targets has been quantified. The radiative ...loss from the localized mix and local cooling of the reacting plasma conditions was quantified using neutron and x-ray images to reconstruct the hot spot conditions during thermonuclear burn. Such localized features arise from ablator material that is injected into the hot spot from the Rayleigh-Taylor growth of capsule surface perturbations, particularly the tube used to fill the capsule with deuterium and tritium fuel. Observations, consistent with analytic estimates, show the degradation to fusion energy production to be linearly proportional to the fraction of the total emission that is associated with injected ablator material and that this radiative loss has been the primary source of variations, of up to 1.6 times, in observed fusion energy production. Reducing the fill tube diameter has increased the ignition metric χ_{no α} from 0.49 to 0.72, 92% of that required to achieve a burning hot spot.
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