Although high-risk mutations in identified major susceptibility genes (DNA mismatch repair genes and
) account for some familial aggregation of colorectal cancer, their population prevalence and the ...causes of the remaining familial aggregation are not known.
We studied the families of 5,744 colorectal cancer cases (probands) recruited from population cancer registries in the United States, Canada, and Australia and screened probands for mutations in mismatch repair genes and
We conducted modified segregation analyses using the cancer history of first-degree relatives, conditional on the proband's age at diagnosis. We estimated the prevalence of mutations in the identified genes, the prevalence of HR for unidentified major gene mutations, and the variance of the residual polygenic component.
We estimated that 1 in 279 of the population carry mutations in mismatch repair genes (
= 1 in 1,946,
= 1 in 2,841,
= 1 in 758,
= 1 in 714), 1 in 45 carry mutations in
, and 1 in 504 carry mutations associated with an average 31-fold increased risk of colorectal cancer in unidentified major genes. The estimated polygenic variance was reduced by 30% to 50% after allowing for unidentified major genes and decreased from 3.3 for age <40 years to 0.5 for age ≥70 years (equivalent to sibling relative risks of 5.1 to 1.3, respectively).
Unidentified major genes might explain one third to one half of the missing heritability of colorectal cancer.
Our findings could aid gene discovery and development of better colorectal cancer risk prediction models.
.
Background: Whether the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality for older adults is the same as for younger adults is unclear.Objective: The objective was to determine the ...association between BMI and all-cause mortality risk in adults ≥65 y of age.Design: A 2-stage random-effects meta-analysis was performed of studies published from 1990 to 2013 that reported the RRs of all-cause mortality for community-based adults aged ≥65 y.Results: Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria; these studies included 197,940 individuals with an average follow-up of 12 y. With the use of a BMI (in kg/m2) of 23.0–23.9 as the reference, there was a 12% greater risk of mortality for a BMI range of 21.0–21.9 and a 19% greater risk for a range of 20.0–20.9 BMI of 21.0–21.9; HR (95% CI): 1.12 (1.10, 1.13); BMI of 20.0–20.9; HR (95% CI): 1.19 (1.17, 1.22). Mortality risk began to increase for BMI >33.0 BMI of 33.0–33.9; HR (95% CI): 1.08 (1.00, 1.15). Self-reported anthropometric measurements, adjustment for intermediary factors, and exclusion of early deaths or preexisting disease did not markedly alter the associations, although there was a slight attenuation of the association in never-smokers.Conclusions: For older populations, being overweight was not found to be associated with an increased risk of mortality; however, there was an increased risk for those at the lower end of the recommended BMI range for adults. Because the risk of mortality increased in older people with a BMI <23.0, it would seem appropriate to monitor weight status in this group to address any modifiable causes of weight loss promptly with due consideration of individual comorbidities.
The cost-effectiveness of population-based panel testing for high- and moderate-penetrance ovarian cancer (OC)/breast cancer (BC) gene mutations is unknown. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ...population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 mutation testing compared with clinical criteria/family history (FH) testing in unselected general population women.
A decision-analytic model comparing lifetime costs and effects of criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing is compared with BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing in those fulfilling clinical criteria/strong FH of cancer (≥10% BRCA1/BRCA2 probability) and all women age 30 years or older. Analyses are presented for UK and US populations. Identified carriers undergo risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 carriers can opt for magnetic resonance imaging/mammography, chemoprevention, or risk-reducing mastectomy. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) enabled model uncertainty evaluation. Outcomes include OC, BC, and additional heart disease deaths. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), OC incidence, BC incidence, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective is payer.
Compared with clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing, clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is cost-effective (ICER = £7629.65/QALY or $49 282.19/QALY; 0.04 days' life-expectancy gained). Population-based testing for BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 mutations is the most cost-effective strategy compared with current policy: ICER = £21 599.96/QALY or $54 769.78/QALY (9.34 or 7.57 days' life-expectancy gained). At £30 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY willingness-to-pay thresholds, population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 panel testing is the preferred strategy in 83.7% and 92.7% of PSA simulations; criteria/FH-based panel testing is preferred in 16.2% and 5.8% of simulations, respectively. Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing can prevent 1.86%/1.91% of BC and 3.2%/4.88% of OC in UK/US women: 657/655 OC cases and 2420/2386 BC cases prevented per million.
Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is more cost-effective than any clinical criteria/FH-based strategy. Clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is more cost-effective than BRCA1/BRCA2 testing alone.
Studies of women of European ancestry have shown that the average familial relative risk for first-degree relatives of women with breast cancer is approximately twofold, but little is known for Asian ...women. We aimed to provide evidence for the association between family history and breast cancer risk for Asian women by systematically reviewing published literature.
Studies reporting the familial relative risk of breast cancer for Asian women were searched in three online databases and complemented by a manual search. Odds ratios (ORs) for the association between family history and breast cancer risk were pooled across all included studies and by subgroups in terms of the type of family history, age, menopausal status and geographical region.
The pooled OR for women who have a first-degree relative with breast cancer was 2.46 (95% confidence interval CI: 2.03, 2.97). There was no evidence that the familial risk differed by the type of affected relative (mother versus sisters), the woman's age (< 50 years versus ≥ 50 years), menopausal status (pre versus post) and geographical region (East and Southeast Asia versus other regions) (all P > 0.3). The pooled ORs for women of Asian ancestry with a family history in any relative were similar for those living in non-Asian countries (2.26, 95% CI: 1.42, 3.59) compared with those living in Asian countries (2.18, 95% CI: 1.85, 2.58).
Family history of breast cancer is associated with an approximately twofold relative risk of breast cancer for Asian women, which is of similar magnitude to that observed for women of European ancestry. This implies that similar familial factors are implicated in breast cancer risk between women of European and Asian ancestries. Genetic factors are likely to play a substantial role in explaining the breast cancer familial risk for Asian women, as similar risks were observed across different living environments and cultures.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Cancers of female breast, upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus) and colorectum are causally related to alcohol consumption. Although alcohol consumption is ...likely to vary during life, the few studies that have explicitly measured lifetime consumption or intake over time have not been summarised. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Studies were identified by searching the Medline, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and Scopus databases through January 2015 using broad search criteria. Studies reporting relative risks (RR) for quantitatively defined categories of alcohol consumption over time for breast, UADT or colorectal cancer were eligible. A two-stage random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate a dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and each cancer site. RRs were also calculated for the highest relative to the lowest intake category.
Sixteen articles for breast, 16 for UADT and 7 for colorectal cancer met the eligibility criteria. We observed a weak non-linear dose-response relationship for breast cancer and positive linear dose-response relationships for UADT and colorectal cancer. The pooled RRs were 1.28 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.07, 1.52) for breast, 2.83 (95% CI: 1.73, 4.62) for UADT, 4.84 (95% CI: 2.51, 9.32) for oral cavity and pharynx, 2.25 (95% CI: 1.49, 3.42) for larynx, 6.71 (95% CI: 4.21, 10.70) for oesophageal and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.27, 1.74) for colorectal cancer.
Our findings confirm dose-dependent associations between long-term alcohol intake and breast, UADT and colorectal cancer.
The results from the few cohort studies that have measured usual alcohol consumption over time have not been summarized. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify ...mortality risk. Pertinent studies were identified by searching the Medline, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Plus, and Scopus databases through August 2012 using broad search criteria. Studies reporting relative mortality risks for quantitatively defined categories of alcohol consumption over time were eligible. Nine cohort studies published during 1991–2010 (comprising 62,950 participants and 10,490 deaths) met the inclusion criteria. For men, there was weak evidence of lower mortality risk with low levels of alcohol intake over time but higher mortality risk for those with intakes over 40 g/day compared with abstainers using a random-effects model (P for nonlinearity = 0.02). The pooled relative risks were 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.81, 0.99) for 1–29 g/day, 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.89, 1.58) for 30–59 g/day, and 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 0.78, 2.98) for 60 or more g/day compared with abstention. There was moderate between-study heterogeneity but no evidence of publication bias. Studies including women were extremely scarce. Our findings include a curvilinear association between drinking over time and mortality risk for men overall and widespread disparity in methods used to capture exposure and report results.
The evidence that measures of obesity and stature are associated with prostate cancer is weak and inconsistent. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between body ...mass index (BMI), height, weight, waist circumference and waist-to-hips ratio (WHR) and the risk of prostate cancer. Study-specific dose-response slopes were obtained, and random effects rate ratios (RRs) were computed from linear meta-regression models. We included 55,521 cases identified among 2,818,767 men from 31 cohort studies, and 13,232 cases and 16,317 controls from 25 case-control studies. The overall RR for BMI was 1.05 per 5 kg/m² increment, 95% CI 1.01-1.08. For studies that reported results by stage of disease, the RRs were stronger for advanced disease (RR 1.12 per 5 kg/m² increment, 95% CI 1.01-1.23) compared with localized disease (RR 0.96 per 5 kg/m² increment, 95% CI 0.89-1.03), p = 0.02. Height was also positively associated with risk (RR 1.05 per 10 cm increment, 95% CI 1.02-1.09), but the evidence was weak for weight (RR 1.01 per 10 kg increment, 95% CI 0.97-1.04), waist circumference (RR 1.03 per 10 cm increment, 95% CI 0.99-1.07), and WHR (RR 1.11 per 0.1 unit increment, 95% CI 0.95-1.30). Stronger associations were observed among cohort studies compared with case-control studies for BMI (p = 0.006), height (p < 0.001) and weight (p = 0.02). This meta-analysis indicates that obesity is weakly associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (particularly advanced stage tumors). While increased stature may also increase risk, there is little evidence for an association with central obesity.
Burial histories of subduction zone rocks are often difficult to accurately constrain, owing to a lack of robust mineral geobarometers applicable to high pressure mineral assemblages. Knowledge of ...the depth‐histories of subduction is, however, required for our understanding of global geochemical cycles, subduction‐related seismicity, and the evolution of destructive tectonic boundaries. The high spatial resolution of quartz inclusion geobarometry can be used to determine pressure evolution during metamorphic growth of individual garnet crystals. Quartz inclusions in garnet from Sifnos, Greece, preserve such a record of the pressure of garnet growth, allowing detailed reconstruction of the metamorphic evolution of these rocks. Pressure‐dependent Raman spectra of quartz inclusions were combined with elastic modeling to infer the conditions at which they were trapped during garnet growth. All measured inclusions suggest that garnet growth occurred between 19 and 20.5 kbars, with little evidence for significant pressure variation during the garnet growth interval, which is interpreted to record ∼100°C of heating. Coupled with thermometry and geochronology, these results show that early, cold burial was followed by a phase of rapid heating, which immediately preceded exhumation. Garnet growth occurred primarily during this heating phase.
Key Points
Quartz inclusions in garnet preserve a deep burial PT history, Sifnos, Greece
Blueschists from northern Sifnos reached peak pressures of ~20 kbar
Melt inclusions (MI) are considered the best tool available for determining the pre-eruptive volatile contents of magmas. H2O and CO2 concentrations of the glass phase in MI are commonly used both as ...a barometer and to track magma degassing behavior during ascent due to the strong pressure dependence of H2O and CO2 solubilities in silicate melts. The often unstated and sometimes overlooked requirement for this method to be valid is that the glass phase in the MI must represent the composition of the melt that was trapped at depth in the volcanic plumbing system. However, melt inclusions commonly contain a vapor bubble that formed after trapping owing to differential shrinkage of the melt compared to the host crystal, and/or crystallization at the inclusion-host interface. Such bubbles may contain a substantial portion of volatiles, such as CO2, that were originally dissolved in the melt. In this study, we determined the contribution of CO2 in the vapor bubble to the overall CO2 content of MI based on quantitative Raman analysis of the vapor bubbles in MI from the 1959 Kilauea Iki (Hawaii), 1960 Kapoho (Hawaii), 1974 Fuego volcano (Guatemala), and 1977 Seguam Island (Alaska) eruptions. We found that the bubbles typically contain 40 to 90% of the total CO2 in the MI. Reconstructing the original CO2 content by adding the CO2 in the bubble back into the melt results in an increase in CO2 concentration by as much as an order of magnitude (thousands of parts per million). Reconstructed CO2 concentrations correspond to trapping pressures that are significantly greater than one would predict based on analysis of the volatiles in the glass alone. Trapping depths can be as much as 10 km deeper than estimates that ignore the CO2 in the bubble. In addition to CO2 in the vapor bubbles, many MI showed the presence of a carbonate mineral phase. Failure to recognize the carbonate during petrographic examination or analysis of the glass and to include its contained CO2 when reconstructing the CO2 content of the originally trapped melt will introduce additional errors into the calculated volatile budget. Our results emphasize that accurate determination of the pre-eruptive volatile content of melts based on analysis of melt inclusions must consider the volatiles contained in the bubble (and carbonates, if present). This can be accomplished either by analysis of the bubble and the glass followed by mass-balance reconstruction of the original volatile content of the melt, or by re-homogenization of the MI prior to conducting microanalysis of the quenched, glassy MI.
Independent validation is essential to justify use of models of breast cancer risk prediction and inform decisions about prevention options and screening. Few independent validations had been done ...using cohorts for common breast cancer risk prediction models, and those that have been done had small sample sizes and short follow-up periods, and used earlier versions of the prediction tools. We aimed to validate the relative performance of four commonly used models of breast cancer risk and assess the effect of limited data input on each one's performance.
In this validation study, we used the Breast Cancer Prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC), which includes 18 856 women from Australia, Canada, and the USA who did not have breast cancer at recruitment, between March 17, 1992, and June 29, 2011. We selected women from the cohort who were 20–70 years old and had no previous history of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy or ovarian cancer, at least 2 months of follow-up data, and information available about family history of breast cancer. We used this selected cohort to calculate 10-year risk scores and compare four models of breast cancer risk prediction: the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model (BOADICEA), BRCAPRO, the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model (IBIS). We compared model calibration based on the ratio of the expected number of breast cancer cases to the observed number of breast cancer cases in the cohort, and on the basis of their discriminatory ability to separate those who will and will not have breast cancer diagnosed within 10 years as measured with the concordance statistic (C-statistic). We did subgroup analyses to compare the performance of the models at 10 years in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers (ie, BRCA-positive women), tested non-carriers and untested participants (ie, BRCA-negative women), and participants younger than 50 years at recruitment. We also assessed the effect that limited data input (eg, restriction of the amount of family history and non-genetic information included) had on the models' performance.
After median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 6·0–14·4), 619 (4%) of 15 732 women selected from the ProF-SC cohort study were prospectively diagnosed with breast cancer after recruitment, of whom 519 (84%) had histologically confirmed disease. BOADICEA and IBIS were well calibrated in the overall validation cohort, whereas BRCAPRO and BCRAT underpredicted risk (ratio of expected cases to observed cases 1·05 95% CI 0·97–1·14 for BOADICEA, 1·03 0·96–1·12 for IBIS, 0·59 0·55–0·64 for BRCAPRO, and 0·79 0·73–0·85 for BRCAT). The estimated C-statistics for the complete validation cohort were 0·70 (95% CI 0·68–0·72) for BOADICEA, 0·71 (0·69–0·73) for IBIS, 0·68 (0·65–0·70) for BRCAPRO, and 0·60 (0·58–0·62) for BCRAT. In subgroup analyses by BRCA mutation status, the ratio of expected to observed cases for BRCA-negative women was 1·02 (95% CI 0·93–1·12) for BOADICEA, 1·00 (0·92–1·10) for IBIS, 0·53 (0·49–0·58) for BRCAPRO, and 0·97 (0·89–1·06) for BCRAT. For BRCA-positive participants, BOADICEA and IBIS were well calibrated, but BRCAPRO underpredicted risk (ratio of expected to observed cases 1·17 95% CI 0·99–1·38 for BOADICEA, 1·14 0·96–1·35 for IBIS, and 0·80 0·68–0·95 for BRCAPRO). We noted similar patterns of calibration for women younger than 50 years at recruitment. Finally, BOADICEA and IBIS predictive scores were not appreciably affected by limiting input data to family history for first-degree and second-degree relatives.
Our results suggest that models that include multigenerational family history, such as BOADICEA and IBIS, have better ability to predict breast cancer risk, even for women at average or below-average risk of breast cancer. Although BOADICEA and IBIS performed similarly, further improvements in the accuracy of predictions could be possible with hybrid models that incorporate the polygenic risk component of BOADICEA and the non-family-history risk factors included in IBIS.
US National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium, Cancer Australia, National Breast Cancer Foundation, Queensland Cancer Fund, Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia, and Cancer Foundation of Western Australia.
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