Several countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have reported a substantial drop in the number of patients attending the emergency department with acute coronary syndromes and a reduced number of ...cardiac procedures. We aimed to understand the scale, nature, and duration of changes to admissions for different types of acute coronary syndrome in England and to evaluate whether in-hospital management of patients has been affected as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We analysed data on hospital admissions in England for types of acute coronary syndrome from Jan 1, 2019, to May 24, 2020, that were recorded in the Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care database. Admissions were classified as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI), myocardial infarction of unknown type, or other acute coronary syndromes (including unstable angina). We identified revascularisation procedures undertaken during these admissions (ie, coronary angiography without percutaneous coronary intervention PCI, PCI, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery). We calculated the numbers of weekly admissions and procedures undertaken; percentage reductions in weekly admissions and across subgroups were also calculated, with 95% CIs.
Hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome declined from mid-February, 2020, falling from a 2019 baseline rate of 3017 admissions per week to 1813 per week by the end of March, 2020, a reduction of 40% (95% CI 37–43). This decline was partly reversed during April and May, 2020, such that by the last week of May, 2020, there were 2522 admissions, representing a 16% (95% CI 13–20) reduction from baseline. During the period of declining admissions, there were reductions in the numbers of admissions for all types of acute coronary syndrome, including both STEMI and NSTEMI, but relative and absolute reductions were larger for NSTEMI, with 1267 admissions per week in 2019 and 733 per week by the end of March, 2020, a percent reduction of 42% (95% CI 38–46). In parallel, reductions were recorded in the number of PCI procedures for patients with both STEMI (438 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 346 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 21%, 95% CI 12–29) and NSTEMI (383 PCI procedures per week in 2019 vs 240 by the end of March, 2020; percent reduction 37%, 29–45). The median length of stay among patients with acute coronary syndrome fell from 4 days (IQR 2–9) in 2019 to 3 days (1–5) by the end of March, 2020.
Compared with the weekly average in 2019, there was a substantial reduction in the weekly numbers of patients with acute coronary syndrome who were admitted to hospital in England by the end of March, 2020, which had been partly reversed by the end of May, 2020. The reduced number of admissions during this period is likely to have resulted in increases in out-of-hospital deaths and long-term complications of myocardial infarction and missed opportunities to offer secondary prevention treatment for patients with coronary heart disease. The full extent of the effect of COVID-19 on the management of patients with acute coronary syndrome will continue to be assessed by updating these analyses.
UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
To describe the place and cause of death during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to assess its impact on excess mortality.
This national death registry included all adult (aged ≥18 ...years) deaths in England and Wales between January 1, 2014, and June 30, 2020. Daily deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were compared against the expected daily deaths, estimated with use of the Farrington surveillance algorithm for daily historical data between 2014 and 2020 by place and cause of death.
Between March 2 and June 30, 2020, there was an excess mortality of 57,860 (a proportional increase of 35%) compared with the expected deaths, of which 50,603 (87%) were COVID-19 related. At home, only 14% (2267) of the 16,190 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, with 5963 deaths due to cancer and 2485 deaths due to cardiac disease, few of which involved COVID-19. In care homes or hospices, 61% (15,623) of the 25,611 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, 5539 of which were due to respiratory disease, and most of these (4315 deaths) involved COVID-19. In the hospital, there were 16,174 fewer deaths than expected that did not involve COVID-19, with 4088 fewer deaths due to cancer and 1398 fewer deaths due to cardiac disease than expected.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a large excess of deaths in care homes that were poorly characterized and likely to be the result of undiagnosed COVID-19. There was a smaller but important and ongoing excess in deaths at home, particularly from cancer and cardiac disease, suggesting public avoidance of hospital care for non-COVID-19 conditions.
There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on cancer care but there is little direct evidence to quantify any effect. This study aims to investigate the impact of the ...COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England.
Data were extracted from four population-based datasets spanning NHS England (the National Cancer Cancer Waiting Time Monitoring, Monthly Diagnostic, Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care and the National Radiotherapy datasets) for all referrals, colonoscopies, surgical procedures, and courses of rectal radiotherapy from Jan 1, 2019, to Oct 31, 2020, related to colorectal cancer in England. Differences in patterns of care were investigated between 2019 and 2020. Percentage reductions in monthly numbers and proportions were calculated.
As compared to the monthly average in 2019, in April, 2020, there was a 63% (95% CI 53–71) reduction (from 36 274 to 13 440) in the monthly number of 2-week referrals for suspected cancer and a 92% (95% CI 89–95) reduction in the number of colonoscopies (from 46 441 to 3484). Numbers had just recovered by October, 2020. This resulted in a 22% (95% CI 8–34) relative reduction in the number of cases referred for treatment (from a monthly average of 2781 in 2019 to 2158 referrals in April, 2020). By October, 2020, the monthly rate had returned to 2019 levels but did not exceed it, suggesting that, from April to October, 2020, over 3500 fewer people had been diagnosed and treated for colorectal cancer in England than would have been expected. There was also a 31% (95% CI 19–42) relative reduction in the numbers receiving surgery in April, 2020, and a lower proportion of laparoscopic and a greater proportion of stoma-forming procedures, relative to the monthly average in 2019. By October, 2020, laparoscopic surgery and stoma rates were similar to 2019 levels. For rectal cancer, there was a 44% (95% CI 17–76) relative increase in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in April, 2020, relative to the monthly average in 2019, due to greater use of short-course regimens. Although in June, 2020, there was a drop in the use of short-course regimens, rates remained above 2019 levels until October, 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sustained reduction in the number of people referred, diagnosed, and treated for colorectal cancer. By October, 2020, achievement of care pathway targets had returned to 2019 levels, albeit with smaller volumes of patients and with modifications to usual practice. As pressure grows in the NHS due to the second wave of COVID-19, urgent action is needed to address the growing burden of undetected and untreated colorectal cancer in England.
Cancer Research UK, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, NHS Digital, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
Reliable assessment of the effects of an intervention usually requires large randomised trials but such studies are becoming increasingly complex and costly to run. ‘Streamlined’ trials are needed in ...which every aspect of the trial design and conduct is simplified, retaining only those elements needed to answer the research question and ensure the safety of the individual participants. In this review we discuss how the trial ‘A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes’ (ASCEND) was streamlined. The study included a two-by-two factorial design: it assessed the effects of low-dose aspirin and, separately, supplementation with
n
-3 fatty acids on serious vascular events in 15,480 people with diabetes but no overt cardiovascular disease. Other key streamlined design features, such as mail-based recruitment and follow-up, mainly by post, with no in-person visits and use of a run-in period, are also described. We go on to discuss the success of the study and other studies that have employed a similar mail-based approach, and the type of clinical trials that are suitable for mail-based design. Finally, we consider the limitations of the study, and how these could be circumvented in future studies. ASCEND randomised large numbers of eligible participants, achieved good adherence rates and almost complete follow-up at a fraction of the cost of traditional clinic-based trials. Such studies are necessary if researchers are to address the important clinical questions most relevant to improving health.
PURPOSE OF REVIEWIndividuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) is a key modifiable cause of ...ASCVD and lowering LDL-C with statins reduces the risk of ASCVD events in a wide range of populations, including those with CKD. This review considers the utility of recently developed nonstatin LDL-C-lowering therapies in CKD.
RECENT FINDINGSThe cholesterol absorption inhibitor, ezetimibe, reduces LDL-C by 15–20% and is well tolerated in CKD. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) reduce LDL-C by 50–60% and reduce the risk of ASCVD events. However, these agents require self-administration by subcutaneous injection every 2–4 weeks. The PCSK9 synthesis inhibitor, inclisiran, is administered approximately 6 monthly and may be more suitable for widespread use, although outcome trials are awaited. These PCSK9 targeting therapies require no dose adjustment in CKD and have no drug interactions.
SUMMARYStatins and ezetimibe are safe and reduce ASCVD risk in CKD populations. PCSK9 targeting agents may be useful in high-risk CKD patients, including those with prior ASCVD.
Ascertainment of heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in cardiovascular trials is costly and complex, involving processes that could be streamlined by using routinely collected healthcare data (RCD). ...The utility of coded RCD for HF outcome ascertainment in randomized trials requires assessment. We systematically reviewed studies assessing RCD-based HF outcome ascertainment against "gold standard" (GS) methods to study the feasibility of using such methods in clinical trials.
Studies assessing International Classification of Disease (ICD) coded RCD-based HF outcome ascertainment against GS methods and reporting at least one agreement statistic were identified by searching MEDLINE and Embase from inception to May 2021. Data on study characteristics, details of RCD and GS data sources and definitions, and test statistics were reviewed. Summary sensitivities and specificities for studies ascertaining acute and prevalent HF were estimated using a bivariate random effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was evaluated using I
statistics and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves.
A total of 58 studies of 48,643 GS-adjudicated HF events were included in this review. Strategies used to improve case identification included the use of broader coding definitions, combining multiple data sources, and using machine learning algorithms to search free text data, but these methods were not always successful and at times reduced specificity in individual studies. Meta-analysis of 17 acute HF studies showed that RCD algorithms have high specificity (96.2%, 95% confidence interval CI 91.5-98.3), but lacked sensitivity (63.5%, 95% CI 51.3-74.1) with similar results for 21 prevalent HF studies. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies.
RCD can correctly identify HF outcomes but may miss approximately one-third of events. Methods used to improve case identification should also focus on minimizing false positives.
Researchers are increasingly seeking to use routinely collected data to support clinical trials. This approach has the potential to transform the way clinical trials are conducted in the future. The ...availability of routinely collected data for research, whether healthcare or administrative, has increased, and infrastructure funding has enabled much of this. However, challenges remain at all stages of a trial life cycle. This study, COMORANT-UK, aimed to systematically identify, with key stakeholders across the UK, the ongoing challenges related to trials that seek to use routinely collected data.
This three-step Delphi method consisted of two rounds of anonymous web-based surveys and a virtual consensus meeting. Stakeholders included trialists, data infrastructures, funders of trials, regulators, data providers and the public. Stakeholders identified research questions or challenges that they considered were of particular importance and then selected their top 10 in the second survey. The ranked questions were taken forward to the consensus meeting for discussion with representatives invited from the stakeholder groups.
In the first survey, 66 respondents yielded over 260 questions or challenges. These were thematically grouped and merged into a list of 40 unique questions. Eighty-eight stakeholders then ranked their top ten from the 40 questions in the second survey. The most common 14 questions were brought to the virtual consensus meeting in which stakeholders agreed a top list of seven questions. We report these seven questions which are within the following domains: trial design, Patient and Public Involvement, trial set-up, trial open and trial data. These questions address both evidence gaps (requiring further methodological research) and implementation gaps (requiring training and/or service re-organisation).
This prioritised list of seven questions should inform the direction of future research in this area and should direct efforts to ensure that the benefits in major infrastructure for routinely collected data are achieved and translated. Without this and future work to address these questions, the potential societal benefits of using routinely collected data to help answer important clinical questions will not be realised.
Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been associated with an increased risk of major vascular events (MVEs) and death, but differences in methodology make between-study comparisons ...difficult. We used a novel method to summarise the published results.
Studies assessing the relationship between baseline eGFR and subsequent MVEs or all cause mortality were identified using Pubmed. Those which involved at least 500 individuals, planned at least 1 year of follow-up, reported age and sex adjusted relative risks, and provided the mean eGFR in each category (or sufficient information to allow its estimation) were included. To take account of differences in underlying risk between studies, proportional within-study differences in eGFR (rather than absolute eGFR values) were related to risk. Fifty studies (2 million participants) assessing MVEs and 67 studies (5 million participants) assessing all cause mortality were eligible. There was an inverse relationship between lower eGFR and the risk of MVEs and of death. In studies among people without prior vascular disease, a 30% lower eGFR level was on average associated with a 29% (SE 0.2%) increase in the risk of a MVE and a 31% (SE 0.2%) increase in the risk of death from any cause. In studies among people with prior vascular disease, these estimates were 26% (SE 1.0%) and 23% (SE 0.2%) respectively. While there was substantial statistical heterogeneity between the results of individual studies, a 30% lower eGFR was consistently associated with a 20-30% higher risk of both outcomes, irrespective of prior history of vascular disease or study design.
Lower eGFR was consistently associated with a moderate increase in the risk of death and MVEs. If these relationships are causal and continuous, then around one fifth of vascular events among those over 70 years might be attributable to renal impairment.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Aspirin is widely used for cardioprotection with its antiplatelet effects due to the blocking of thromboxane A2 production. However, it has been suggested that platelet abnormalities in those with ...diabetes prevent adequate suppression with once daily aspirin.
In the ASCEND randomized double-blind trial of aspirin 100 mg once daily versus placebo in participants with diabetes but no history of cardiovascular disease, suppression was assessed by measuring 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 excretion in urine (U-TXM) in a randomly selected sample of 152 participants (76 aspirin arm, 74 placebo arm), plus 198 (93 aspirin arm, 105 placebo arm) adherent to study drugs and selected to maximize the numbers ingesting their last tablet 12-24 h before urine sampling. U-TXM was assayed using a competitive ELISA assay in samples mailed a mean of 2 years after randomization, with time since taking last aspirin/placebo tablet recorded at the time of sample provision. Effective suppression (U-TXM < 1500 pg/mg creatinine) and percentage reductions in U-TXM by aspirin allocation were compared.
In the random sample, U-TXM was 71% (95% CI 64-76%) lower among aspirin vs placebo-allocated participants. Among adherent participants in the aspirin arm, U-TXM was 72% (95% CI 69-75%) lower than in the placebo arm and 77% achieved effective suppression overall. Suppression was similar among those who ingested their last tablet more than 12 h before urine sampling with levels in the aspirin arm 72% (95% CI 67-77%) lower than in the placebo arm and 70% achieving effective suppression.
Daily aspirin significantly reduces U-TXM in participants with diabetes, including at 12-24 h after ingestion.
ISRCTN ISRCTN60635500. Registered on 1 Sept 2005; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00135226. Registered on 24 Aug 2005.
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