Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to greatly improve society, but as with any powerful technology, it comes with heightened risks and responsibilities. Current AI research lacks a ...systematic discussion of how to manage long-tail risks from AI systems, including speculative long-term risks. Keeping in mind the potential benefits of AI, there is some concern that building ever more intelligent and powerful AI systems could eventually result in systems that are more powerful than us; some say this is like playing with fire and speculate that this could create existential risks (x-risks). To add precision and ground these discussions, we provide a guide for how to analyze AI x-risk, which consists of three parts: First, we review how systems can be made safer today, drawing on time-tested concepts from hazard analysis and systems safety that have been designed to steer large processes in safer directions. Next, we discuss strategies for having long-term impacts on the safety of future systems. Finally, we discuss a crucial concept in making AI systems safer by improving the balance between safety and general capabilities. We hope this document and the presented concepts and tools serve as a useful guide for understanding how to analyze AI x-risk.
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose ...catastrophic risks. Although numerous risks have been detailed separately, there is a pressing need for a systematic discussion and illustration of the potential dangers to better inform efforts to mitigate them. This paper provides an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risks, which we organize into four categories: malicious use, in which individuals or groups intentionally use AIs to cause harm; AI race, in which competitive environments compel actors to deploy unsafe AIs or cede control to AIs; organizational risks, highlighting how human factors and complex systems can increase the chances of catastrophic accidents; and rogue AIs, describing the inherent difficulty in controlling agents far more intelligent than humans. For each category of risk, we describe specific hazards, present illustrative stories, envision ideal scenarios, and propose practical suggestions for mitigating these dangers. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these risks and inspire collective and proactive efforts to ensure that AIs are developed and deployed in a safe manner. Ultimately, we hope this will allow us to realize the benefits of this powerful technology while minimizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.
Model stealing attacks present a dilemma for public machine learning APIs. To protect financial investments, companies may be forced to withhold important information about their models that could ...facilitate theft, including uncertainty estimates and prediction explanations. This compromise is harmful not only to users but also to external transparency. Model stealing defenses seek to resolve this dilemma by making models harder to steal while preserving utility for benign users. However, existing defenses have poor performance in practice, either requiring enormous computational overheads or severe utility trade-offs. To meet these challenges, we present a new approach to model stealing defenses called gradient redirection. At the core of our approach is a provably optimal, efficient algorithm for steering an adversary's training updates in a targeted manner. Combined with improvements to surrogate networks and a novel coordinated defense strategy, our gradient redirection defense, called GRAD\({}^2\), achieves small utility trade-offs and low computational overhead, outperforming the best prior defenses. Moreover, we demonstrate how gradient redirection enables reprogramming the adversary with arbitrary behavior, which we hope will foster work on new avenues of defense.
In real-world applications of machine learning, reliable and safe systems must consider measures of performance beyond standard test set accuracy. These other goals include out-of-distribution (OOD) ...robustness, prediction consistency, resilience to adversaries, calibrated uncertainty estimates, and the ability to detect anomalous inputs. However, improving performance towards these goals is often a balancing act that today's methods cannot achieve without sacrificing performance on other safety axes. For instance, adversarial training improves adversarial robustness but sharply degrades other classifier performance metrics. Similarly, strong data augmentation and regularization techniques often improve OOD robustness but harm anomaly detection, raising the question of whether a Pareto improvement on all existing safety measures is possible. To meet this challenge, we design a new data augmentation strategy utilizing the natural structural complexity of pictures such as fractals, which outperforms numerous baselines, is near Pareto-optimal, and roundly improves safety measures.
Adversarial robustness research primarily focuses on L_p perturbations, and most defenses are developed with identical training-time and test-time adversaries. However, in real-world applications ...developers are unlikely to have access to the full range of attacks or corruptions their system will face. Furthermore, worst-case inputs are likely to be diverse and need not be constrained to the L_p ball. To narrow in on this discrepancy between research and reality we introduce ImageNet-UA, a framework for evaluating model robustness against a range of unforeseen adversaries, including eighteen new non-L_p attacks. To perform well on ImageNet-UA, defenses must overcome a generalization gap and be robust to a diverse attacks not encountered during training. In extensive experiments, we find that existing robustness measures do not capture unforeseen robustness, that standard robustness techniques are beat by alternative training strategies, and that novel methods can improve unforeseen robustness. We present ImageNet-UA as a useful tool for the community for improving the worst-case behavior of machine learning systems.
In real-world applications of machine learning, reliable and safe systems must consider measures of performance beyond standard test set accuracy. These other goals include out-of-distribution (OOD) ...robustness, prediction consistency, resilience to adversaries, calibrated uncertainty estimates, and the ability to detect anomalous inputs. However, improving performance towards these goals is often a balancing act that today's methods cannot achieve without sacrificing performance on other safety axes. For instance, adversarial training improves adversarial robustness but sharply degrades other classifier performance metrics. Similarly, strong data augmentation and regularization techniques often improve OOD robustness but harm anomaly detection, raising the question of whether a Pareto improvement on all existing safety measures is possible. To meet this challenge, we design a new data augmentation strategy utilizing the natural structural complexity of pictures such as fractals, which outperforms numerous baselines, is near Pareto-optimal, and roundly improves safety measures.
Self-supervision provides effective representations for downstream tasks without requiring labels. However, existing approaches lag behind fully supervised training and are often not thought ...beneficial beyond obviating or reducing the need for annotations. We find that self-supervision can benefit robustness in a variety of ways, including robustness to adversarial examples, label corruption, and common input corruptions. Additionally, self-supervision greatly benefits out-of-distribution detection on difficult, near-distribution outliers, so much so that it exceeds the performance of fully supervised methods. These results demonstrate the promise of self-supervision for improving robustness and uncertainty estimation and establish these tasks as new axes of evaluation for future self-supervised learning research.
He et al. (2018) have called into question the utility of pre-training by showing that training from scratch can often yield similar performance to pre-training. We show that although pre-training ...may not improve performance on traditional classification metrics, it improves model robustness and uncertainty estimates. Through extensive experiments on adversarial examples, label corruption, class imbalance, out-of-distribution detection, and confidence calibration, we demonstrate large gains from pre-training and complementary effects with task-specific methods. We introduce adversarial pre-training and show approximately a 10% absolute improvement over the previous state-of-the-art in adversarial robustness. In some cases, using pre-training without task-specific methods also surpasses the state-of-the-art, highlighting the need for pre-training when evaluating future methods on robustness and uncertainty tasks.
Detecting out-of-distribution examples is important for safety-critical machine learning applications such as detecting novel biological phenomena and self-driving cars. However, existing research ...mainly focuses on simple small-scale settings. To set the stage for more realistic out-of-distribution detection, we depart from small-scale settings and explore large-scale multiclass and multi-label settings with high-resolution images and thousands of classes. To make future work in real-world settings possible, we create new benchmarks for three large-scale settings. To test ImageNet multiclass anomaly detectors, we introduce the Species dataset containing over 700,000 images and over a thousand anomalous species. We leverage ImageNet-21K to evaluate PASCAL VOC and COCO multilabel anomaly detectors. Third, we introduce a new benchmark for anomaly segmentation by introducing a segmentation benchmark with road anomalies. We conduct extensive experiments in these more realistic settings for out-of-distribution detection and find that a surprisingly simple detector based on the maximum logit outperforms prior methods in all the large-scale multi-class, multi-label, and segmentation tasks, establishing a simple new baseline for future work.
Automated red teaming holds substantial promise for uncovering and mitigating the risks associated with the malicious use of large language models (LLMs), yet the field lacks a standardized ...evaluation framework to rigorously assess new methods. To address this issue, we introduce HarmBench, a standardized evaluation framework for automated red teaming. We identify several desirable properties previously unaccounted for in red teaming evaluations and systematically design HarmBench to meet these criteria. Using HarmBench, we conduct a large-scale comparison of 18 red teaming methods and 33 target LLMs and defenses, yielding novel insights. We also introduce a highly efficient adversarial training method that greatly enhances LLM robustness across a wide range of attacks, demonstrating how HarmBench enables codevelopment of attacks and defenses. We open source HarmBench at https://github.com/centerforaisafety/HarmBench.
