Two large ensembles are used to quantify the extent to which internal variability can contribute to long‐term changes in El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. We diagnose changes that ...are externally forced and distinguish between multi‐model simulation results that differ by chance and those that differ due to different model physics. The range of simulated ENSO amplitude changes in the large ensemble historical simulations encompasses 90% of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 historical simulations and 80% of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) warming scenarios. When considering projected ENSO pattern changes, model differences are also important. We find that ENSO has high internal variability and that single realizations of a model can produce very different results to the ensemble mean response. Due to this variability, 30–40 ensemble members of a single model are needed to robustly compute absolute ENSO variance to a 10% error when 30‐year analysis periods are used.
Plain Language Summary
The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual variability globally, with effects that are felt all over the world. As such it is important to understand whether ENSO might change in the future or has already changed in the recent past due to anthropogenic emissions. We show that ENSO strength is highly variable between simulations from a single model, independent of external forcing. This variability is known as internal variability and occurs due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Such variability can cloud our projections of the future when we have limited model simulations. Here, we demonstrate that <30 simulations of the same model are needed to robustly estimate ENSO variability. Using the 100 possible futures simulated in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) and 40 possible futures from the Community Earth System Large and Medium Ensemble Projects (CESM‐LE/CESM‐ME) we find that ENSO variability is large. Here, this strong variability will likely mask any possible observed changes, meaning that we are unlikely to be able attribute ENSO changes the near future to anthropogenic forcing.
Key Points
Internal variability explains 90% of the CMIP5 spread of historical ENSO SST changes and 80% of the spread under stronger forcing
The large internal ENSO variability means that individual realizations can show very different changes compared to the true forced response
Only with a large ensemble (more than 30 members) can internal variability in ENSO projections be quantified robustly
We present a mechanism for self‐sustained ocean circulation changes that cause abrupt temperature changes over Greenland in a multimillennial climate model simulation with glacial CO2 concentrations ...representative of Marine Isotope Stage 3. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG) oscillate on millennial time scales. When the AMOC is strong, the SPG is weak and contracted; when the AMOC is weak, the SPG is strong and extensive. The coupling between the two systems via wind‐driven and density‐driven feedbacks is key to maintaining the oscillations. The SPG controls the transport of heat and salt into the deep‐water formation sites and thus controls the AMOC strength. The strength and location of the deep‐water formation affect the density‐driven part of the SPG and thus control the mean strength and extent of the SPG. This mechanism supports the hypothesis that coupled ocean‐ice‐atmosphere interactions could have triggered abrupt glacial climate change.
Plain Language Summary
Between 57.000 and 29.000 years ago, the last glacial period was marked by several abrupt warming and cooling events over Greenland and the North Atlantic. Understanding the mechanism behind these so‐called Dansgaard‐Oeschger events increases our understanding of possible tipping points that cause abrupt change in the Earth system. The role of the ocean in causing these events is still a topic of debate. We find abrupt changes in the North Atlantic circulation that resemble Dansgaard‐Oeschger events in a simulation with a state‐of‐the‐art climate model. These simulated ocean circulation changes are generated without adding external triggers such as meltwater from glaciers. Instead, the events are generated by the interaction of the two large‐scale current systems in the North Atlantic—the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Both current systems are affected by changes in surface winds and the density pattern of the North Atlantic. We find that the location where the densest water is formed controls how the SPG interacts with the AMOC. Under favorable conditions, the effects of wind and density combine in such a way that changes in the SPG cause abrupt changes in the AMOC.
Key Points
Millennial‐scale, self‐sustained oscillations of the ocean circulation occur in a climate model simulation
The oscillations are driven by the interaction between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG)
The AMOC‐SPG coupling is controlled by a wind‐driven and a density‐driven feedback; the coupling sign depends on the dominant feedback
The MPI‐ESM1.2 is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and is the baseline for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and current seasonal and decadal climate ...predictions. This paper evaluates a coupled higher‐resolution version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) in comparison with its lower‐resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We focus on basic oceanic and atmospheric mean states and selected modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The increase in atmospheric resolution in MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR reduces the biases of upper‐level zonal wind and atmospheric jet stream position in the northern extratropics. This results in a decrease of the storm track bias over the northern North Atlantic, for both winter and summer season. The blocking frequency over the European region is improved in summer, and North Atlantic Oscillation and related storm track variations improve in winter. Stable Atlantic meridional overturning circulations are found with magnitudes of ~16 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR and ~20 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR at 26°N. A strong sea surface temperature bias of ~5°C along with a too zonal North Atlantic current is present in both versions. The sea surface temperature bias in the eastern tropical Atlantic is reduced by ~1°C due to higher‐resolved orography in MPI‐ESM‐HR, and the region of the cold‐tongue bias is reduced in the tropical Pacific. MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR has a well‐balanced radiation budget and its climate sensitivity is explicitly tuned to 3 K. Although the obtained reductions in long‐standing biases are modest, the improvements in atmospheric dynamics make this model well suited for prediction and impact studies.
Key Points
A higher‐resolution version of MPI‐ESM1.2 is presented, which has a well‐balanced radiation budget and stable ocean circulation
The higher atmospheric resolution improves North Atlantic storm tracks, blocking frequency, and NAO representation
The higher computational costs remain manageable and enable studies of seasonal to decadal predictions and climate impacts
MPI‐ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of ...variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea‐ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low‐resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy‐permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large‐scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy‐permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.
Key Points
documentation the performance of MPIOM in the new MPI‐ESM coupled system
Assessment of impact of ocean resolution
Specific investigation of the Agulhas region
Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array ...(RAPID–MOCHA)observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array.
The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Observations and numerical modeling experiments provide evidence for links between variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and global climate patterns. Reduction in the ...strength of the overturning circulation is thought to have played a key role in rapid climate change in the past and may have the potential to significantly influence climate change in the future, as noted in the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (Houghton et al.; Solomon et al.). Both IPCC reports also highlighted the significant uncertainties that exist regarding the future behavior of the AMOC under global warming. Model results suggest that changes in the AMOC can impact surface air temperature, precipitation patterns, and sea level, particularly in areas bordering the North Atlantic, thus affecting human populations. Here, the current understanding of past, present, and future changes in the AMOC and the effects of such changes on climate are reviewed. The focus is on observations of the AMOC, how the AMOC influences climate, and in what way the AMOC is likely to change over the next few decades and the twenty-first century. The potential for decadal prediction of the AMOC is also discussed. Finally, the outstanding challenges and possible future directions for AMOC research are outlined.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). ...Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations.
A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated equatorial upwelling weaken, and there is a reduction of the model’s equatorial cold SST bias by more than 1 K. Equatorial SST variability also becomes more realistic. The strength of the variability is reduced by about 30% in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the extension of SST variability into the warm pool is significantly reduced. The dominant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period shifts from 3 to 4 yr. Without the parameterization an unrealistically strong westward propagation of SST anomalies is simulated. The reasons for the changes in variability are linked to changes in both the mean state and to a reduction in atmospheric sensitivity to SST changes and oceanic sensitivity to wind anomalies.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, 48-month-long time series of the ...vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008, the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ± 2.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s−1)with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic midocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geostrophic AMOC anomalies might represent an important and previously underestimated component of meridional transport and storage of heat in the subtropical North Atlantic. There is evidence that the seasonal cycle observed here is representative of much longer intervals. Previously, hydrographic snapshot estimates between 1957 and 2004 had suggested a long-term decline of the AMOC by 8 Sv. This study suggests that aliasing of seasonal AMOC anomalies might have accounted for a large part of the inferred slowdown.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection ...of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green's function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011-2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015-2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green's functions.
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