Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species‐level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional ...traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree‐ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring‐width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994–1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi‐arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi‐arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.
In this study, we analysed the resistance and resilience to drought of forests dominated by 11 species across wide climatic and environmental gradients in the Mediterranean basin using proxies of forest productivity (NDVI) and carbon accumulation (ring‐width indices, TRWi) and considering four extreme drought events recorded between 1980 and 2005. Our results indicate that drought intensity is a major driver of forest resilience to drought but that species inhabiting different regions present different strategies to cope with drought and thus they can respond differently to more frequent and severe droughts.
The negative impacts of drought on forest growth and productivity last for several years generating legacies, although the factors that determine why such legacies vary across sites and tree species ...remain unclear.
We used an extensive network of tree‐ring width (RWI, ring‐width index) records of 16 tree species from 567 forests, and high‐resolution climate and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets across Spain during the common period 1982‒2008 to test the hypothesis that climate conditions and growth features modulate legacy effects of drought on forests. Legacy effects of drought were calculated as the differences between detrended‐only RWI and NDVI series (i.e. after removing long‐term growth trends) and pre‐whitened RWI and NDVI series predicted by a model including drought intensity. Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) was used to estimate whether legacy effects differed from random. Finally, legacy effects were related to water balance, growth persistence and variability, and tree species identity.
We found a widespread occurrence of drought legacy effects on both RWI and NDVI, but they were seldom significant. According to SEA, first‐year drought legacies were negative and different from random in 9% and 5% of the RWI and NDVI series respectively. The number of significant second‐ and third‐year legacies was substantially lower. Differences between RWI and NDVI legacies indicate that canopy greenness and radial growth responses to drought are decoupled. We found variations in legacies between tree species with gymnosperms presenting larger first‐year drought legacies than angiosperms, which were exposed to less severe droughts. Greater growth variability can explain the presence of first‐year RWI legacies in gymnosperms from dry sites despite that the relationship between growth variability and legacies was complex.
Synthesis. Accounting for species and site responses to drought provides a better understanding of the magnitude and duration of drought legacies on forest growth and productivity. Despite the widespread occurrence of growth reductions in the years during and after drought occurrence, significant legacies were not very common, mostly lasted one year, and were more widespread in gymnosperms. These are relevant factors to be considered in the future when studying the consequences of drought on forest productivity and tree growth.
Legacy effects of drought on tree growth (RWI, ring‐width indices) and forest productivity (NDVI) vary between tree species. Drought legacies are more common for gymnosperms than for angiosperms and usually last for one year. Growth variability partially explains the variation in drought legacies between species despite the fact that this relationship is complex and species‐specific.
Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate ...models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts.
Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods, leading to a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries.
Droughts can have strong environmental and socio-economic impacts in the Mediterranean region, in particular for countries relying on rain-fed agricultural production, but also in areas in which ...irrigation plays an important role and in which natural vegetation has been modified or is subject to water stress. The purpose of this review is to provide an assessment of the complexity of the drought phenomenon in the Mediterranean region and present various perspectives on drought in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The projections of various model experiments on future climate change scenarios strongly agree on an increased frequency and severity of droughts in the Mediterranean basin. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the phenomenon, with different types of droughts and complex interrelated impacts, significant future uncertainties remain. For example, uncertainties are stronger for hydrological droughts than meteorological droughts due to human influences and water withdrawal. Significant drought impacts are expected in the future, in particular for developing countries in the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean basin. To improve the resilience and adaptive capacities of societies and environments faced with drought, we aim to provide an overview of the key issues in research on climate change impacts on droughts, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region, in order to: i) redefine more meaningful drought metrics tailored to the Mediterranean context, ii) better take into account vegetation and its feedback on droughts, iii) improve the modelling and forecasting of drought events through remote sensing and land surface models, and iv) promote a more integrated vision of droughts taking into account both water availability and water use. This overview reflects the complexity of the problem and the need to combine scientific research with adaptation solutions to deal with drought in the future.
Climate trends and variability in Ecuador (1966–2011) Morán‐Tejeda, Enrique; Bazo, Juan; López‐Moreno, Juan I. ...
International journal of climatology,
September 2016, 2016-09-00, 20160901, Letnik:
36, Številka:
11
Journal Article
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ABSTRACT
This study detects climate trends and variability from precipitation and temperature observations in Ecuador and assesses their links to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the ...period 1966–2011, using the El Niño 1+2 and El Niño 3.4 indices. Excluding the Amazonian region (for which there is a lack of data), two main regions were distinguishable in terms of variability and trends among climate variables, especially for precipitation. In general, there was no trend in precipitation for the coastal region, and a very close relationship between the magnitude and seasonal distribution of precipitation and the El Niño 1+2 variability was found. In contrast, for the mountainous region (the Andes), there was an increase of precipitation during the study period, and a signal of El Niño 3.4 influence was detected. Temperatures were spatially homogeneous and showed an intense warming trend, except for maximum temperatures in the coastal region. The El Niño 1+2 influence on temperature was large from January to July. The results provide evidence of the close control exerted by the ENSO, especially in the coast of Ecuador, as well as for the occurrence of significant warming across the country independent of the ENSO phenomenon.
Design of a smart drug delivery system is a topic of current interest. Under this perspective, polymer nanocomposites (PNs) of butyl acrylate (BA), methacrylic acid (MAA), and functionalized carbon ...nanotubes (CNTs
) were synthesized by in situ emulsion polymerization (IEP). Carbon nanotubes were synthesized by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and purified with steam. Purified CNTs were analyzed by FE-SEM and HR-TEM. CNTs
contain acyl chloride groups attached to their surface. Purified and functionalized CNTs were studied by FT-IR and Raman spectroscopies. The synthesized nanocomposites were studied by XPS,
C-NMR, and DSC. Anhydride groups link CNTs
to MAA-BA polymeric chains. The potentiality of the prepared nanocomposites, and of their pure polymer matrices to deliver hydrocortisone, was evaluated in vitro by UV-VIS spectroscopy. The relationship between the chemical structure of the synthesized nanocomposites, or their pure polymeric matrices, and their ability to release hydrocortisone was studied by FT-IR spectroscopy. The hydrocortisone release profile of some of the studied nanocomposites is driven by a change in the inter-associated to self-associated hydrogen bonds balance. The CNTs
used to prepare the studied nanocomposites act as hydrocortisone reservoirs.
A MULTISCALAR GLOBAL DROUGHT DATASET: THE SPEIBASE Beguería, Santiago; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Angulo-Martínez, Marta
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
10/2010, Letnik:
91, Številka:
10
Journal Article
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Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper presents a neural network-based classifier to predict whether a person is at risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD). The model is trained with the demographic data and medical ...care information of two population groups: on the one hand, people diagnosed with CKD in Colombia during 2018, and on the other, a sample of people without a diagnosis of this disease. Once the model is trained and evaluation metrics for classification algorithms are applied, the model achieves 95% accuracy in the test data set, making its application for disease prognosis feasible. However, despite the demonstrated efficiency of the neural networks to predict CKD, this machine-learning paradigm is opaque to the expert regarding the explanation of the outcome. Current research on eXplainable AI proposes the use of twin systems, where a black-box machine-learning method is complemented by another white-box method that provides explanations about the predicted values. Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) has proved to be an ideal complement as this paradigm is able to find explanatory cases for an explanation-by-example justification of a neural network's prediction. In this paper, we apply and validate a NN-CBR twin system for the explanation of CKD predictions. As a result of this research, 3,494,516 people were identified as being at risk of developing CKD in Colombia, or 7% of the total population.
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