Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This ...makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95 % confidence interval 13.1–15.7 days). The equivalent modelled τe lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.4 ± 2.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer (133Xe) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol (137Cs) tracer. This indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.
The Arctic region is vulnerable to climate change and able to affect global climate. The summertime Arctic atmosphere is pristine and strongly influenced by natural regional emissions, which have ...poorly understood climate impacts related to atmospheric particles and clouds. Here we show that ammonia from seabird-colony guano is a key factor contributing to bursts of newly formed particles, which are observed every summer in the near-surface atmosphere at Alert, Nunavut, Canada. Our chemical-transport model simulations indicate that the pan-Arctic seabird-influenced particles can grow by sulfuric acid and organic vapour condensation to diameters sufficiently large to promote pan-Arctic cloud-droplet formation in the clean Arctic summertime. We calculate that the resultant cooling tendencies could be large (about -0.5 W m
pan-Arctic-mean cooling), exceeding -1 W m
near the largest seabird colonies due to the effects of seabird-influenced particles on cloud albedo. These coupled ecological-chemical processes may be susceptible to Arctic warming and industrialization.
Atmospheric concentrations of inorganic gases and aerosols (nitrate, sulfate, and ammonium) are simulated for 2009 over the United States using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Predicted ...aerosol concentrations are compared with surface-level measurement data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE), the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET), and the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Sulfate predictions nationwide are in reasonably good agreement with observations, while nitrate and ammonium are over-predicted in the East and Midwest, but under-predicted in California, where observed concentrations are the highest in the country. Over-prediction of nitrate in the East and Midwest is consistent with results of recent studies, which suggest that nighttime nitric acid formation by heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 is over-predicted based on current values of the N2O5 uptake coefficient, γ, onto aerosols. After reducing the value of γ by a factor of 10, predicted nitrate levels in the US Midwest and East still remain higher than those measured, and over-prediction of nitrate in this region remains unexplained. Comparison of model predictions with satellite measurements of ammonia from the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) indicates that ammonia emissions in GEOS-Chem are underestimated in California and that the nationwide seasonality applied to ammonia emissions in GEOS-Chem does not represent California very well, particularly underestimating winter emissions. An ammonia sensitivity study indicates that GEOS-Chem simulation of nitrate is ammonia-limited in southern California and much of the state, suggesting that an underestimate of ammonia emissions is likely the main cause for the under-prediction of nitrate aerosol in many areas of California. An approximate doubling of ammonia emissions is needed to reproduce observed nitrate concentrations in southern California and in other ammonia sensitive areas of California. However, even a tenfold increase in ammonia emissions yields predicted nitrate concentrations that are still biased low in the central valley of California. The under-prediction of nitrate aerosol in the central valley of California may arise in part from an under-prediction of both ammonia and nitric acid in this region. Since nitrate aerosols are particularly sensitive to mixed layer depths, owing to the gas-particle equilibrium, the nitrate under-prediction could also arise in part from a potential regional overestimate of GEOS-5 mixed layer depths in the central valley due to unresolved topography in this region.
We have developed a new nested-grid mercury (Hg) simulation over North America with a 1/2° latitude by 2/3° longitude horizontal resolution employing the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. ...Emissions, chemistry, deposition, and meteorology are self-consistent between the global and nested domains. Compared to the global model (4° latitude by 5° longitude), the nested model shows improved skill at capturing the high spatial and temporal variability of Hg wet deposition over North America observed by the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in 2008-2009. The nested simulation resolves features such as higher deposition due to orographic precipitation, land/ocean contrast and and predicts more efficient convective rain scavenging of Hg over the southeast United States. However, the nested model overestimates Hg wet deposition over the Ohio River Valley region (ORV) by 27%. We modify anthropogenic emission speciation profiles in the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) to account for the rapid in-plume reduction of reactive to elemental Hg (IPR simulation). This leads to a decrease in the model bias to -2.3% over the ORV region. Over the contiguous US, the correlation coefficient (r) between MDN observations and our IPR simulation increases from 0.60 to 0.78. The IPR nested simulation generally reproduces the seasonal cycle in surface concentrations of speciated Hg from the Atmospheric Mercury Network (AMNet) and Canadian Atmospheric Mercury Network (CAMNet). In the IPR simulation, annual mean gaseous and particulate-bound Hg(II) are within 140% and 11% of observations, respectively. In contrast, the simulation with unmodified anthropogenic Hg speciation profiles overestimates these observations by factors of 4 and 2 for gaseous and particulate-bound Hg(II), respectively. The nested model shows improved skill at capturing the horizontal variability of Hg observed over California during the ARCTAS aircraft campaign. The nested model suggests that North American anthropogenic emissions account for 10-22% of Hg wet deposition flux over the US, depending on the anthropogenic emissions speciation profile assumed. The modeled percent contribution can be as high as 60% near large point sources in ORV. Our results indicate that the North American anthropogenic contribution to dry deposition is 13-20%.
We present 14 new 10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages quantifying asynchronous readvances during the Antarctic Cold Reversal from glaciers in the Baker Valley region of central Patagonia. We ...constrain glacier and ice-dammed palaeolake dynamics using a landsystems approach, concentrating on outlet glaciers from the eastern Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and Monte San Lorenzo (MSL). Soler Glacier (NPI) produced lateral moraines above Lago Bertrand from 15.1 ± 0.7 to 14.0 ± 0.6 ka, when it dammed the drainage of Lago General Carrera/Buenos Aires through Río Baker at a bedrock pinning point. At this time, Soler Glacier terminated into the 400 m “Deseado” level of the ice-dammed palaeolake. Later, Calluqueo Glacier (MSL) deposited subaerial and subaqueous moraines in the Salto Valley near Cochrane at 13.0 ± 0.6 ka. These moraines were deposited in an ice-dammed palaeolake unified through the Baker Valley (Lago Chalenko; 350 m asl). The Salto Valley glaciolacustrine landsystem includes subaqueous morainal banks, ice-scoured bedrock, glacial diamicton plastered onto valley sides, perched delta terraces, kame terraces, ice-contact fans, palaeoshorelines and subaerial push and lateral moraines. Boulders from the subaqueous Salto Moraine became exposed at 12.1 ± 0.6 years, indicating palaeolake drainage. These data show an asynchronous advance of outlet glaciers from the Northern Patagonian Icefield and Monte San Lorenzo during the Antarctic Cold Reversal. These advances occurred during a period of regional climatic cooling, but differential moraine extent and timing of advance was controlled by topography and calving processes.
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•Detailed glaciolacustrine landsystem for outlet glaciers from the Northern Patagonian Icefield and Monte San Lorenzo ice cap.•Quantification using cosmogenic exposure-age dating of their asynchronous advances during the Antarctic Cold Reversal.•Topography and glaciolacustrine calving played a significant role in controlling glacier response to climate forcing.•New reconstruction of Patagonian Ice Sheet development from 16 to 10 ka, including new controls on palaeolake drainage.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the worst global health crisis in living memory. The reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is considered ...the gold standard diagnostic method, but it exhibits limitations in the face of enormous demands. We evaluated a mid-infrared (MIR) data set of 237 saliva samples obtained from symptomatic patients (138 COVID-19 infections diagnosed via RT-qPCR). MIR spectra were evaluated via unsupervised random forest (URF) and classification models. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was applied following the genetic algorithm (GA-LDA), successive projection algorithm (SPA-LDA), partial least squares (PLS-DA), and a combination of dimension reduction and variable selection methods by particle swarm optimization (PSO-PLS-DA). Additionally, a consensus class was used. URF models can identify structures even in highly complex data. Individual models performed well, but the consensus class improved the validation performance to 85% accuracy, 93% sensitivity, 83% specificity, and a Matthew’s correlation coefficient value of 0.69, with information at different spectral regions. Therefore, through this unsupervised and supervised framework methodology, it is possible to better highlight the spectral regions associated with positive samples, including lipid (∼1700 cm–1), protein (∼1400 cm–1), and nucleic acid (∼1200–950 cm–1) regions. This methodology presents an important tool for a fast, noninvasive diagnostic technique, reducing costs and allowing for risk reduction strategies.
Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) can change rapidly due to economic growth or control measures. Bottom‐up emissions estimated using source‐specific emission factors and activity ...statistics require years to compile and can become quickly outdated. We present a method to use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns to estimate changes in NOx emissions. We use tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument for 2003–2009, the response of tropospheric NO2 columns to changes in NOx emissions determined from a global chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem), and the bottom‐up anthropogenic NOx emissions for 2006 to hindcast and forecast the inventories. We evaluate our approach by comparing bottom‐up and hindcast emissions for 2003. The two inventories agree within 6.0% globally and within 8.9% at the regional scale with consistent trends in western Europe, North America, and East Asia. We go on to forecast emissions for 2009. During 2006–2009, anthropogenic NOx emissions over land increase by 9.2% globally and by 18.8% from East Asia. North American emissions decrease by 5.7%.
The first-passage problem of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to a boundary is a long-standing problem with no known closed-form solution except in specific cases. Taking this as a starting-point, and ...extending to a general mean-reverting process, we investigate the long- and short-time asymptotics using a combination of Hopf-Cole and Laplace transform techniques. As a result we are able to give a single formula that is correct in both limits, as well as being exact in certain special cases. We demonstrate the results using a variety of other models.
Metal-organic frameworks comprise an important class of solid-state materials and have potential for many emerging applications such as energy storage, separation, catalysis and bio-medical. Here we ...report the adsorption behaviour of a series of fluorocarbon derivatives on a set of microporous and hierarchical mesoporous frameworks. The microporous frameworks show a saturation uptake capacity for dichlorodifluoromethane of >4 mmol g(-1) at a very low relative saturation pressure (P/Po) of 0.02. In contrast, the mesoporous framework shows an exceptionally high uptake capacity reaching >14 mmol g(-1) at P/Po of 0.4. Adsorption affinity in terms of mass loading and isosteric heats of adsorption is found to generally correlate with the polarizability and boiling point of the refrigerant, with dichlorodifluoromethane > chlorodifluoromethane > chlorotrifluoromethane > tetrafluoromethane > methane. These results suggest the possibility of exploiting these sorbents for separation of azeotropic mixtures of fluorocarbons and use in eco-friendly fluorocarbon-based adsorption cooling.
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