Neighbourhood associations are major players in urban politics throughout North American cities and increasingly are becoming a political force in other parts of the world. However, while there is a ...rich and well-developed literature on the role played by neighbourhood associations in urban politics, few studies examine whether their membership reflects the socio-demographic composition and interests of the broader public. This paper addresses this gap in the literature using survey data from voters conducted during the Vancouver and Toronto 2018 municipal elections. We compare the responses of participants who identify as members of neighbourhood associations (or their equivalents) with those of the broader voting public. We find that members of neighbourhood associations in both cities are not representative of the broader population. They are more likely to be white, older and have higher education than the average voter. In addition, while the ideology of neighbourhood association members differs little from that of the broader public, their policy priorities are different from those of the majority of voters in both cities. Our findings suggest that neighbourhood associations fail in providing descriptive representation and may not offer substantive representation. These findings raise important questions about the role of neighbourhood associations in local governance. Our study also demonstrates the merit of using individual-level surveys to learn more about the composition and policy preferences of neighbourhood associations.
This article explores the correlates of ballot roll-off in the 2014 Toronto municipal election. While turnout in the mayoral contest was comparatively high, roughly 4.3% of voters abstained from ...council races. Using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N survey of electors conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Election, this study identifies a series of factors related to roll-off from mayoral to council elections. These variables include a number of sociodemographic characteristics and attitudinal factors commonly associated with turnout, measures of attachment to the city, and a series of election-specific factors. Results reveal that many factors commonly associated with abstention similarly drive roll-off, but that the experiences of individual voters also have an impact upon roll-off rates.
Since Angus Campbell and colleagues first introduced the “levels of conceptualization” (LoC) framework as a measure of political sophistication, a number of scholars have applied the approach to ...subsequent American national elections. In this study, we present the first application of the LoC framework to a municipal election, and focus upon the 2018 Toronto mayoral race. After describing the method and data we use to adapt the framework to this new context, we replicate previous analyses, and find that LoC is related to local voter turnout and several measures of political sophistication. We then consider the question of whether major candidates were discussed at different LoC, and if their supporters view local politics at different LoC. We conclude by making the case that the LoC framework is helpful for resolving the debate over whether local politics are ideological or managerial in nature.
Do incumbents dominate non-partisan elections because of an especially large personal vote? This question has important implications for understanding the causes of incumbent success and the benefits ...or drawbacks of non-partisan elections. This paper uses a natural experiment, combined with three original datasets, to estimate the size, persistence, and consequences of the personal vote in a large non-partisan city election. We first use individual-level survey data to show that individuals assigned quasi-randomly to a new incumbent are substantially less likely to support the incumbent. We use a second survey, one year later, to demonstrate the persistence of this effect. Finally, we use historical election results to simulate the electoral consequences of the personal vote; we find that the personal vote is sufficiently large to affect one in four incumbent races. We conclude that the personal vote, while large and important, is not sufficient to explain incumbent dominance in non-partisan contests.
Since the #MeToo movement, several countries have taken steps to address sexual harassment in politics (for example, the United States, United Kingdom and Canada). While researchers have evaluated ...the electability of candidates accused of sexual harassment, less is known about what the public thinks should happen when elected officials engage in this behaviour. Utilizing an innovative module from the 2019 Canadian Election Study, we assess the steps voters believe legislatures should take when an MP sexually harasses someone. Our results demonstrate that a vast majority of the public believes that MPs should face consequences when they commit sexual harassment, including potential removal from office. We also find that women are more likely than men to believe MPs should be punished when they are accused of sexual harassment. These findings have relevance for legislatures globally, revealing the importance of transparent, independent processes to address harassment and violence in the political sphere.
While retrospective economic voting-that is, punishing or rewarding incumbent politicians for the performance of the economy-is well studied, much less is known about the electoral implications of ...the housing market across levels of government. Which, if any, levels of government are judged on the basis of real estate prices? This piece considers this question, using panel survey data and home assessment data from Calgary, Alberta, a city where housing prices have stagnated in recent years relative to other Canadian cities. We find that support for incumbents at both the local and provincial levels are related to impressions of the direction of the housing market. City councilors, however, are the only politicians who seem to be held accountable for the performance of the housing market. Our results suggest that, at the local level, housing prices are an important consideration for economic voting.
Party identification is a well‐documented force in political behaviour. However, the vast majority of work on partisanship considers only its positive side, rather than recognizing that partisan ...identities may also have a negative component. Recent work has shown that negative partisanship has important effects, such as reinforcing partisan leanings, directing strategic behaviour and increasing the rate of straight‐ticket voting. This study takes a step back to explore the sources of such orientations, rather than the effects. Specifically, it considers whether the electoral system context contributes to the presence of negative affective orientations towards parties. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, we examine the influence of factors related to electoral system features and consider whether their influence is moderated by voter sophistication. Data reveal significant variation in the rate of negative partisanship across countries, and that these differences are related to the electoral system context in which voters are making decisions. We also find some evidence that these effects are moderated by sophistication. This work adds to our understanding of the role of affect in political behaviour, as well as the impact that country‐level institutional factors can have upon the relationship between voters and parties.
A long tradition of scholarship has argued that the cleavages that animate urban politics are distinct from those that structure regional or national politics. More recent scholarship has challenged ...this view, demonstrating the relevance of cleavages that apply at higher levels of government, such as partisanship and ideology, for urban elections. We contribute to this debate by investigating the perceptions of urban residents themselves. Using survey data from a major Canadian city, we use a novel survey question battery to compare how urban residents understand municipal and provincial electoral cleavages. We consider two questions that speak to the distinctiveness of local politics: (1) How do electors perceive coalitions of support at the two levels of government, and do perceptions of coalitions differ across levels? (2) How do perceptions compare to actual electoral coalitions at the two levels? We find little evidence to support the view that local electoral cleavages are unique.
This research note examines the correlates of turnout in Canadian school board elections. Using individual-level data from the Canadian Municipal Election Study, we find that gender, education, ...left-wing ideology, Conservative partisanship and parental status were associated with participation in Calgary's 2017 public school board elections. Some of these patterns relate to the specific details of Calgary's 2017 election; others, we suggest, may be characteristic of school board elections more generally. We relate our findings to the literature on ballot roll-off and low-turnout elections. Cette note de recherche examine les corrélats de la participation aux élections des conseils scolaires au Canada. Selon les données individuelles tirées de l'Étude sur les élections municipales canadiennes, nous constatons que le sexe, le niveau de scolarité, l'idéologie de gauche, la partisanerie conservatrice et la qualité parentale étaient associés à la participation aux élections des conseils scolaires publics de 2017 à Calgary. Certaines de ces tendances sont liées aux détails particuliers de l'élection de 2017 à Calgary ; d'autres, à notre avis, pourraient être caractéristiques des élections des conseils scolaires en général. Nous faisons le lien entre nos constatations et la bibliographie sur les élections à faible taux de participation et l'annulation des bulletins de vote.
Education is a well-known correlate of many political attitudes and behaviors. Despite the concept's ubiquitous use by researchers, however, few studies take seriously the question of how it should ...be operationalized. Measures of level of education are used inconsistently and coding decisions are rarely justified. More importantly, the relationship between the field of education and important outcome variables have been completely overlooked in Canada. That is, while researchers are aware that the amount of education one receives matters, they ignore the question of how the subject of that education might matter. We address these issues here, using data from over 4,000 Canadians to consider in detail the relationship between the level and field of education upon two important outcomes: turnout and partisanship. We conclude that measures of level of education should be as detailed as possible, and that the field of study, in particular, has significant effects.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK