In the lead‐up to the 2015 Conference of Parties meeting in Paris, 186 countries, representing over 95% of global emissions, submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs outline ...national goals for greenhouse gas emission reductions and identify financial needs for unfolding mitigation and adaptation efforts. In this study, we review various analyses of the NDCs that cover the aggregate impact and strength of emissions reduction commitments and discuss recent literature on the adequacy and sectoral focus of the NDCs. We then argue that the NDCs are more than just goal setting reports; they are important discursive documents that are contested, negotiated, and ongoing. To supplement the existing literature, we examine the discursive narratives embedded in the NDCs from the 19 founding nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the top 10 greenhouse gas emitters. Our literature review of quantitative and sectoral aspects of the NDCs highlights the inadequacy of the NDC commitments in the context of limiting warming to 2°C, discusses the uncertainties in the promised mitigation strategies, and identifies the reliance of many countries on policies such as those on forests or renewable energy. Our own analysis of the discourses in the NDCs adds critical depth by highlighting the stark contrasts in NDC discourses between North and South, as well as between historical emitters and emerging economies. These contrasts reflect deeper debates regarding justice and equity between nations within the UNFCCC negotiations.
This article is categorized under:
Climate and Development > Decoupling Emissions from Development
Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and data is crucial to understanding the complex dynamics and often interdisciplinary nature of conservation. Many conservation scientists use mixed ...methods, but there are a variety of mixed methods approaches, a lack of shared vocabulary, and few methodological frameworks. We reviewed articles from 2 conservation‐related fields that often incorporate qualitative and quantitative methods: land‐change science (n = 16) and environmental management (n = 16). We examined how authors of these studies approached mixed methods research by coding key methodological characteristics, including relationships between method objectives, extent of integration, iterative interactions between methods, and justification for use of mixed methods. Using these characteristics, we created a typology with the goal of improving understanding of how researchers studying land‐change science and environmental management approach interdisciplinary mixed methods research. We identified 5 types of mixed methods approaches, which we termed simple nested, informed nested, simple parallel, unidirectional synthesis, and bidirectional synthesis. Methods and data sources were often used to address different research questions within a project, and only around half of the reviewed papers methodologically integrated different forms of data. Most authors used one method to inform the other, rather than both informing one another. Very few articles used methodological iteration. Each methodological type has certain epistemological implications, such as the disciplinary reach of the research and the capacity for knowledge creation through the exchange of information between distinct methodologies. To exemplify a research design that can lead to multidimensional knowledge production, we provide a methodological framework that bidirectionally integrates and iterates qualitative and quantitative methods.
Estrategias para la Investigación Interdisciplinaria con Métodos Mixtos en las Ciencias del Cambio de Suelo y el Manejo Ambiental
Resumen
La combinación entre los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos y los datos es crucial para el entendimiento de las dinámicas complejas y con frecuencia, de la naturaleza interdisciplinaria de la conservación. Muchos científicos de la conservación usan métodos mixtos, aunque existe una variedad de estrategias de métodos mixtos, una falta de vocabulario común y pocos marcos de trabajo metodológicos. Revisamos los artículos publicados en dos campos relacionados con la conservación, los cuales con frecuencia incorporan métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos: las ciencias del cambio de suelo (n = 16) y el manejo ambiental (n = 16). Examinamos cómo los autores de estos estudios abordaron la investigación de métodos mixtos al codificar las características metodológicas importantes, incluyendo las relaciones entre los objetivos de los métodos, la extensión de la integración, las interacciones iterativas entre los métodos y la justificación para el uso de los métodos mixtos. Con estas características creamos una tipología con el objetivo de mejorar el entendimiento de cómo los investigadores que estudian las ciencias del cambio de suelo y el manejo ambiental abordan la investigación interdisciplinaria de métodos mixtos. Identificamos cinco tipos de estrategias de métodos mixtos, que denominamos anidadas, anidadas informadas, paralelas simples, de síntesis unidireccional y de síntesis bidireccional. Con frecuencia se utilizaron métodos y fuentes de datos para responder a diferentes preguntas de investigación dentro de un proyecto y sólo alrededor de la mitad de los artículos revisados integraron de manera metodológica diferentes presentaciones de los datos. La mayoría de los autores usaron un método para orientar al otro método, en lugar de que ambos métodos se orientaran mutuamente. Fueron muy pocos los artículos que usaron la iteración metodológica. Cada estilo metodológico tiene ciertas implicaciones epistemológicas, como el alcance disciplinario de la investigación y la capacidad de creación de conocimiento por medio del intercambio de información entre las distintas metodologías. Proporcionamos un marco de trabajo metodológico que integre de manera bidireccional y reitere los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos para ejemplificar un diseño de investigación que pueda derivar en la producción multidimensional del conocimiento.
Article impact statement: Articles with mixed methods fit into 5 methodological types in which there is limited integration and iteration among methods.
Development and implementation of effective protected area management to reduce deforestation depend in part on identifying factors contributing to forest loss and areas at risk of conversion, but ...standard land‐use‐change modeling may not fully capture contextual factors that are not easily quantified. To better understand deforestation and agricultural expansion in Amazonian protected areas, we combined quantitative land‐use‐change modeling with qualitative discourse analysis in a case study of Brazil's Jamanxim National Forest. We modeled land‐use change from 2008 to 2018 and projected deforestation through 2028. We used variables identified in a review of studies that modeled land‐use change in the Amazon (e.g., variables related to agricultural suitability and economic accessibility) and from a critical discourse analysis that examined documents produced by different actors (e.g., government agencies and conservation nonprofit organizations) at various spatial scales. As measured by analysis of variance, McFadden's adjusted pseudo R2, and quantity and allocation disagreement, we found that including variables in the model identified as important to deforestation dynamics through the qualitative discourse analysis (e.g., the proportion of unallocated public land, distance to proposed infrastructure developments, and density of recent fires) alongside more traditional variables (e.g., elevation, distance to roads, and protection status) improved the predictive ability of these models. Models that included discourse analysis variables and traditional variables explained up to 19.3% more of the observed variation in deforestation probability than a model that included only traditional variables and 4.1% more variation than a model with only discourse analysis variables. Our approach of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in land‐use‐change modeling provides a framework for future interdisciplinary work in land‐use change.
Resumen
El desarrollo y la implementación de la gestión efectiva de las áreas protegidas para reducir la deforestación dependen parcialmente de la identificación de los factores que contribuyen a la pérdida del bosque y de las áreas en riesgo de ser convertidas, pero el modelado estándar del cambio de uso de suelo puede no capturar completamente los factores contextuales que no se cuantifican fácilmente. Combinamos el modelado cuantitativo del cambio de uso de suelo con el análisis cualitativo del discurso en un estudio de caso del Bosque Nacional Jamanxim de Brasil para entender de mejor manera la deforestación y la expansión agrícola en las áreas protegidas del Amazonas. Modelamos el cambio de uso de suelo entre 2008 y 2018 y lo proyectamos hasta 2028. Usamos las variables identificadas en una revisión de estudios que modelaron el cambio de uso de suelo en el Amazonas (p. ej.: variables relacionadas con la idoneidad agrícola y la accesibilidad económica) y en el análisis crítico del discurso que examinó documentos producidos por diferentes actores (p. ej.: agencias gubernamentales y organizaciones sin fines de lucro para la conservación) a varias escalas espaciales. Conforme a las medidas del análisis de varianza, la pseudo‐R2 ajustada de McFadden y el desacuerdo en la cantidad y la asignación, descubrimos que la inclusión dentro del modelo de las variables identificadas como importantes para las dinámicas de deforestación mediante el análisis cualitativo del discurso (p. ej.: la proporción de terrenos públicos sin asignar, la distancia hacia los desarrollos propuestos de infraestructura y la densidad de incendios recientes) junto con variables más tradicionales (p. ej.: elevación, distancia a las carreteras y estado de protección) mejoró la habilidad predictiva de dichos modelos. Los modelos que incluyeron la mezcla de variables explicaron hasta 19.3% más de la variación observada en la probabilidad de deforestación que un modelo que solamente incluyó las variables tradicionales y 4.1% más variación que un modelo con las variables del análisis del discurso. Nuestra estrategia de integrar los métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos dentro del modelado del cambio de uso de suelo proporciona un marco para futuros trabajos interdisciplinarios sobre el cambio de uso de suelo.
整合定性和定量方法进行森林砍伐边界的土地利用变化建模
【摘要】制定和实施有效的保护区管理以减少森林砍伐, 部分取决于能否确定导致森林丧失的因素和面临土地转换风险的地区, 但标准的土地利用变化建模可能无法充分反映难以量化的背景因素。为了更好地了解亚马逊保护区的森林砍伐和农业扩张情况, 我们将定量的土地利用变化模型与定性的话语分析相结合, 对巴西Jamanxim国家森林进行了案例研究。我们模拟了2008‐2018年的土地利用变化情况, 并预测了到2028年的森林砍伐情况。本研究使用的变量来自一项对亚马逊地区土地利用变化建模研究的综述(如与农业适宜性和经济可及性相关的变量), 以及一项检验不同行为者(如政府机构和非营利性保护组织)在不同空间尺度上制定的文件的话语分析。通过方差分析、McFadden调整后的伪R2, 以及数量分歧与分配分歧的计算, 我们发现, 在模型中加入通过定性话语分析确定的森林砍伐动态的重要变量(如未分配的公共土地比例、与计划修建的基础设施的距离、近期火灾密度)以及更传统的变量(如海拔、与道路的距离、保护状态)可以提高这些模型的预测能力。包含话语分析变量和传统变量的模型与只包含传统变量的模型相比, 可解释的森林砍伐可能性的观测变异高19.3%, 而与只包含话语分析变量的模型相比高4.1%。我们在土地利用变化建模中定性和定量相结合的方法可以为未来土地利用变化的跨学科工作提供框架。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】
Energy development – as manifested by the proliferation of hydroelectric dams and increased oil and gas exploration – is a driver of change in Amazonian ecosystems. However, prevailing approaches to ...Amazonian ecosystem conservation that focus on terrestrial protected areas and Indigenous territories do not offer sufficient insurance against the risks associated with energy development. Here, we explore three related areas of concern: the exclusion of subsurface rights on Indigenous lands; the absence of frameworks for freshwater ecosystem conservation; and downgrading, downsizing, degazettement (loss of protection), and reclassification of protected areas. We consider these issues from the perspectives of multiple countries across the Amazon Basin, and link them directly to energy development. Finally, we offer suggestions for addressing the challenges of energy development for Amazon ecosystem conservation through existing policies, new approaches, and international collaboration.
•There exists a major knowledge gap regarding ex-post assessments of adaptation projects.•This study highlights that adaptation projects have futures that differ substantially from expectations.•This ...study presents a subjective approach for ex-post assessment of adaptation projects.•Subjective assessment enables ontological and epistemological pluralism.•The sustainability mechanisms written into adaptation projects need to be reformed.
Over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. Despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors’ “best practices,” very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. In this article, I propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. This methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. I apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across Ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. My analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. The results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. I find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. These findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. This analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation.
Studying land use change in protected areas (PAs) located in tropical forests is a major conservation priority due to high conservation value (e.g., species richness and carbon storage) here, coupled ...with generally high deforestation rates. Land use change researchers use a variety of land cover products to track deforestation trends, including maps they produce themselves and readily available products, such as the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset. However, all land cover maps should be critically assessed for limitations and biases to accurately communicate and interpret results. In this study, we assess deforestation in PA complexes located in agricultural frontiers in the Amazon Basin. We studied three specific sites: Amboró and Carrasco National Parks in Bolivia, Jamanxim National Forest in Brazil, and Tambopata National Reserve and Bahuaja-Sonene National Park in Peru. Within and in 20km buffer areas around each complex, we generated land cover maps using composites of Landsat imagery and supervised classification, and compared deforestation trends to data from the GFC dataset. We then performed a dissimilarity analysis to explore the discrepancies between the two remote sensing products. Both the GFC and our supervised classification showed that deforestation rates were higher in the 20km buffer than inside the PAs and that Jamanxim National Forest had the highest deforestation rate of the PAs we studied. However, GFC maps showed consistently higher rates of deforestation than our maps. Through a dissimilarity analysis, we found that many of the inconsistencies between these datasets arise from different treatment of mixed pixels or different parameters in map creation (for example, GFC does not detect reforestation after 2012). We found that our maps underestimated deforestation while GFC overestimated deforestation, and that true deforestation rates likely fall between our two estimates. We encourage users to consider limitations and biases when using or interpreting our maps, which we make publicly available, and GFC’s maps.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
To increase agricultural exports across the Global South, countries are seeking to transform agrarian landscapes and the nature of campesino or smallholder agriculture. These agricultural reforms, ...however, do not exist in isolation. They work in conjunction with water policy reform to reshape agricultural systems and the people who manage these landscapes. While there has been significant research on agrarian change under neoliberal reform, few scholars have conducted empirical studies that examine how agricultural policy leverages water policy reform to generate changes across agricultural landscapes. Drawing on the case study of the Piura River basin in Northern Peru, this paper first explores how the IWRM inspired 2009 Water Resources Law furthers the state's agricultural development priorities by shifting water toward agro-export production. Secondly, this study demonstrates how climate change is being discursively mobilized as an emerging driver of water scarcity to legitimize these water reallocations. Thirdly, this case highlights how these water reallocations work in concert with the reinstatement of targeted agricultural support programs that seek to transform smallholder farmers into “agro-export entrepreneurs” but with meaningful exclusions. This study contributes to the limited scholarship on the 2009 Water Resources Law in Peru and also raises broader questions regarding how IWRM water management, climate change adaptation discourse, and agricultural development policy collectively promote the globalization of smallholder agriculture.
Despite the emphasis of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) on 'soft' demand-side management, large-scale water infrastructure is increasingly being constructed in basins managed under an ...IWRM framework. While there has been substantial research on IWRM, few scholars have unpacked how IWRM and large-scale water infrastructure development coexist and conflict. Piura, Peru is an important site for understanding how IWRM and capital-intensive, concrete-heavy water infrastructure development articulate in practice. After 70 years of proposals and planning, the Regional Government of Piura began construction of the mega-irrigation project, Proyecto Especial de Irrigación e Hidroeléctrico del Alto Piura (PEIHAP) in 2013. PEIHAP, which will irrigate an additional 19,000 hectares (ha), is being realised in the wake of major reforms in the Chira-Piura River Basin, a pilot basin for the IWRM-inspired 2009 Water Resources Law. We first map the historical trajectory of PEIHAP as it mirrors the shifting political priorities of the Peruvian state. We then draw on interviews with the newly formed River Basin Council, regional government, PEIHAP, and civil society actors to understand why and how these differing water management paradigms coexist. We find that while the 2009 Water Resources Law labels large-scale irrigation infrastructure as an 'exceptional measure', this development continues to eclipse IWRM provisions of the new law. This uneasy coexistence reflects the parallel desires of the state to imbue water policy reform with international credibility via IWRM while also furthering economic development goals via large-scale water infrastructure. While the participatory mechanisms and expertise of IWRM-inspired river basin councils have not been brought to bear on the approval and construction of PEIHAP, these institutions will play a crucial role in managing the myriad resource and social conflicts that are likely to result.
•The electric utility industry is an important player in the climate change arena.•We find diversity in adaptation actions, methods for measuring risk, and mechanisms for engaging stakeholders in the ...electric utility industry.•There is emphasis on the identification of potential climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation in the electric utility industry.•Less attention has been paid to assessments of risk, stakeholder engagement, and cross-sectoral collaboration in the electric utility industry.
The electric utility industry is an important player in the climate change arena, both as a significant emitter of global emissions and as an industry vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A climate risk management approach uses risk assessments and decision analyses to identify potential adaptation options. We review the existing literature on climate risk management in the electric utility industry, with a focus on four areas of interest: (1) climate change impacts; (2) measurements of risk; (3) stakeholder engagement and cross-sectoral collaboration; and (4) adaptation actions. Overall, we find significant emphasis on the identification of potential climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation, but less attention paid to assessments of risk, stakeholder engagement, and cross-sectoral collaboration in climate risk management. We find considerable diversity in the types of adaptation actions, methods for measuring risk, and mechanisms for engaging stakeholders. We offer some suggestions to move beyond more fragmented approaches to climate risk management, including the adoption of more holistic approaches, heightened stakeholder and cross-sectoral engagement, and greater collaboration between researchers and electric utilities.
Adaptation to climate change has become a major policy and project focus for donors and governments globally. In this article, we provide insight into how adaptation projects mobilize distinct ...imaginaries and knowledge claims that create territories for intervention (the objects) as well as targeted populations (the subjects) to sustain them. Drawing on two emblematic climate change adaptation projects in Ecuador, we show how these objects and subjects are created through a knowledge production process that (a) creates a discursive climate change rationale; (b) sidesteps uncertainty related to climate change impacts; (c) fosters a circular citational practice that (self-)reinforces the project’s expert knowledge; and (d) makes complex social variables commensurable based on the project’s rationality, interests, and quantifiable indicators. The emerging hydrosocial territories ‘in need of intervention’ require subjects that inhabit, produce and reproduce these territories, in accordance with specific climate change discourses and practices. To manufacture and align these subjects, projects employ participatory practices that are informed by recognition politics aimed at disciplining participants toward particular identities and ways of thinking and acting. We analyze these distinct strategies as multiple governmentalities enacted through participatory adaptation projects seeking to produce specific climate change resilient hydrosocial territories and corresponding subjects.
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