Recognition of patterns of organ failure may be useful in characterizing the clinical course of critically ill patients. We investigated the patterns of early changes in organ dysfunction/failure in ...intensive care unit (ICU) patients and their relation to outcome.
Using the database from a large prospective European study, we studied 2,933 patients who had stayed more than 48 hours in the ICU and described patterns of organ failure and their relation to outcome. Patients were divided into three groups: patients without sepsis, patients in whom sepsis was diagnosed within the first 48 hours after ICU admission, and patients in whom sepsis developed more than 48 hours after admission. Organ dysfunction was assessed by using the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score.
A total of 2,110 patients (72% of the study population) had organ failure at some point during their ICU stay. Patients who exhibited an improvement in organ function in the first 24 hours after admission to the ICU had lower ICU and hospital mortality rates compared with those who had unchanged or increased SOFA scores (12.4 and 18.4% versus 19.6 and 24.5%, P < 0.05, pairwise). As expected, organ failure was more common in sepsis than in nonsepsis patients. In patients with single-organ failure, in-hospital mortality was greater in sepsis than in nonsepsis patients. However, in patients with multiorgan failure, mortality rates were similar regardless of the presence of sepsis. Irrespective of the presence of sepsis, delta SOFA scores over the first 4 days in the ICU were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors and decreased significantly over time in survivors.
Early changes in organ function are strongly related to outcome. In patients with single-organ failure, in-hospital mortality was higher in sepsis than in nonsepsis patients. However, in multiorgan failure, mortality rates were not influenced by the presence of sepsis.
To develop a model to assess severity of illness and predict vital status at hospital discharge based on ICU admission data.
Prospective multicentre, multinational cohort study.
A total of 16,784 ...patients consecutively admitted to 303 intensive care units from 14 October to 15 December 2002.
ICU admission data (recorded within +/-1 h) were used, describing: prior chronic conditions and diseases; circumstances related to and physiologic derangement at ICU admission. Selection of variables for inclusion into the model used different complementary strategies. For cross-validation, the model-building procedure was run five times, using randomly selected four fifths of the sample as a development- and the remaining fifth as validation-set. Logistic regression methods were then used to reduce complexity of the model. Final estimates of regression coefficients were determined by use of multilevel logistic regression. Variables selection and weighting were further checked by bootstraping (at patient level and at ICU level). Twenty variables were selected for the final model, which exhibited good discrimination (aROC curve 0.848), without major differences across patient typologies. Calibration was also satisfactory (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test H=10.56, p=0.39, C=14.29, p=0.16). Customized equations for major areas of the world were computed and demonstrate a good overall goodness-of-fit.
The SAPS 3 admission score is able to predict vital status at hospital discharge with use of data recorded at ICU admission. Furthermore, SAPS 3 conceptually dissociates evaluation of the individual patient from evaluation of the ICU and thus allows them to be assessed at their respective reference levels.
The aim of the study was to assess whether adults admitted to hospitals with both Intensive Care Units (ICU) and Intermediate Care Units (IMCU) have lower in-hospital mortality than those admitted to ...ICUs without an IMCU.
An observational multinational cohort study performed on patients admitted to participating ICUs during a four-week period. IMCU was defined as any physically and administratively independent unit open 24 hours a day, seven days a week providing a level of care lower than an ICU but higher than a ward. Characteristics of hospitals, ICUs and patients admitted to study ICUs were recorded. The main outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality until hospital discharge (censored at 90 days).
One hundred and sixty-seven ICUs from 17 European countries enrolled 5,834 patients. Overall, 1,113 (19.1%) patients died in the ICU and 1,397 died in hospital, with a total of 1,397 (23.9%) deaths. The illness severity was higher for patients in ICUs with an IMCU (median Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II: 37) than for patients in ICUs without an IMCU (median SAPS II: 29, P <0.001). After adjustment for patient characteristics at admission such as illness severity, and ICU and hospital characteristics, the odds ratio of mortality was 0.63 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.88, P = 0.007) in favour of the presence of IMCU. The protective effect of the IMCU was absent in patients who were admitted for basic observation, for example, after surgery (odds ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.03, P = 0.630) but was strong in patients admitted to an ICU for other reasons (odds ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.80, P = 0.002).
The presence of an IMCU in the hospital is associated with significantly reduced adjusted hospital mortality for adults admitted to the ICU. This effect is relevant for the patients requiring full intensive treatment.
Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01422070. Registered 19 August 2011.
Purpose
To analyze the relationship between hypercapnia developing within the first 48 h after the start of mechanical ventilation and outcome in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome ...(ARDS).
Patients and methods
We performed a secondary analysis of three prospective non-interventional cohort studies focusing on ARDS patients from 927 intensive care units (ICUs) in 40 countries. These patients received mechanical ventilation for more than 12 h during 1-month periods in 1998, 2004, and 2010. We used multivariable logistic regression and a propensity score analysis to examine the association between hypercapnia and ICU mortality.
Main outcomes
We included 1899 patients with ARDS in this study. The relationship between maximum PaCO
2
in the first 48 h and mortality suggests higher mortality at or above PaCO
2
of ≥50 mmHg. Patients with severe hypercapnia (PaCO
2
≥50 mmHg) had higher complication rates, more organ failures, and worse outcomes. After adjusting for age, SAPS II score, respiratory rate, positive end-expiratory pressure, PaO
2
/FiO
2
ratio, driving pressure, pressure/volume limitation strategy (PLS), corrected minute ventilation, and presence of acidosis, severe hypercapnia was associated with increased risk of ICU mortality odds ratio (OR) 1.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32 to 2.81;
p
= 0.001. In patients with severe hypercapnia matched for all other variables, ventilation with PLS was associated with higher ICU mortality (OR 1.58, CI 95% 1.04–2.41;
p
= 0.032).
Conclusions
Severe hypercapnia appears to be independently associated with higher ICU mortality in patients with ARDS.
Trial registration
Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT01093482.
Prognosis determines major decisions regarding treatment for critically ill patients. Statistical models have been developed to predict the probability of survival and other outcomes of intensive ...care. Although they were trained on the characteristics of large patient cohorts, they often do not represent very old patients (age ≥ 80 years) appropriately. Moreover, the heterogeneity within this particular group impairs the utility of statistical predictions for informing decision-making in very old individuals. In addition to these methodological problems, the diversity of cultural attitudes, available resources as well as variations of legal and professional norms limit the generalisability of prediction models, especially in patients with complex multi-morbidity and pre-existing functional impairments. Thus, current approaches to prognosticating outcomes in very old patients are imperfect and can generate substantial uncertainty about optimal trajectories of critical care in the individual. This article presents the state of the art and new approaches to predicting outcomes of intensive care for these patients. Special emphasis has been given to the integration of predictions into the decision-making for individual patients. This requires quantification of prognostic uncertainty and a careful alignment of decisions with the preferences of patients, who might prioritise functional outcomes over survival. Since the performance of outcome predictions for the individual patient may improve over time, time-limited trials in intensive care may be an appropriate way to increase the confidence in decisions about life-sustaining treatment.
Objective
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. To provide a uniformly accepted definition, the RIFLE classification was introduced by the ...Acute Dialysis Quality Initiative, recently modified by the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN), suggesting staging of AKI based on dynamic changes within 48 h. This study compares these two classification systems with regard to outcome.
Design
Cohort analysis of SAPS 3 database.
Measurements
Sixteen thousand seven hundred and eighty-four ICU patients from 303 ICUs were analysed. Classification was performed according to RIFLE (Risk, Injury, Failure) or according to AKIN (stage 1, 2, 3) without including a requirement of renal replacement therapy in the analysis. Changes of serum creatinine as well as urinary output were assessed for both AKIN and RIFLE during the first 48 h of ICU admission. Primary endpoint was hospital mortality.
Results
Incidence of AKI in our population of critically ill patients was found to range between 28.5 and 35.5% when applying AKIN and RIFLE criteria, respectively, associated with increased hospital mortality averaging 36.4%. Observed-to-expected mortality ratios revealed excess mortality conferred by any degree of AKI increasing from 0.81 for patients classified as non-AKI up to 1.31 and 1.23 with AKIN stage 3 or RIFLE Failure, respectively. AKIN misclassified 1,504 patients as non-AKI compared to RIFLE which misclassified 504 patients.
Conclusion
Acute kidney injury classified by either RIFLE or AKIN is associated with increased hospital mortality. Despite presumed increased sensitivity by the AKIN classification, RIFLE shows better robustness and a higher detection rate of AKI during the first 48 h of ICU admission.
The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was developed more than 25 years ago to provide a simple method of assessing and monitoring organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. Changes ...in clinical practice over the last few decades, with new interventions and a greater focus on non-invasive monitoring systems, mean it is time to update the SOFA score. As a first step in this process, we propose some possible new variables that could be included in a SOFA 2.0. By so doing, we hope to stimulate debate and discussion to move toward a new, properly validated score that will be fit for modern practice.
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