A multimodel, multiresolution ensemble using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) coupled experiments is used to assess the ...performance of key aspects of the North Atlantic circulation. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and related heat transport, tends to become stronger as ocean model resolution is enhanced, better agreeing with observations at 26.5°N. However, for most models the circulation remains too shallow compared to observations and has a smaller temperature contrast between the northward and southward limbs of the AMOC. These biases cause the northward heat transport to be systematically too low for a given overturning strength. The higher‐resolution models also tend to have too much deep mixing in the subpolar gyre. In the period 2015–2050 the overturning circulation tends to decline more rapidly in the higher‐resolution models, which is related to both the mean state and to the subpolar gyre contribution to deep water formation. The main part of the decline comes from the Florida Current component of the circulation. Such large declines in AMOC are not seen in the models with resolutions more typically used for climate studies, suggesting an enhanced risk for Northern Hemisphere climate change. However, only a small number of different ocean models are included in the study.
Plain Language Summary
The ocean circulation in the North Atlantic is important for Northern Hemisphere climate, and hence, it is important to assess the risk of changes caused by climate change. In this work we use seven different global coupled climate models to simulate the period 1950–2050, using different horizontal grid spacings of the ocean (and atmosphere) models. We find that, when assessed against observations at 26.5°N in the Atlantic, the higher‐resolution models tend to perform better, though this is not so obviously the case at higher latitudes. In the future projections to 2050, the higher‐resolution models typically have a larger reduction in their ocean circulation compared to the lower‐resolution models, with potential implications for climate risk and impacts.
Key Points
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport typically increase in strength at higher horizontal model resolution
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in most of the higher‐resolution models declines more quickly in the future projections
The results suggest that to fully assess the risk of changes to Atlantic Ocean circulation requires use of higher‐resolution models
Numerical systems used for weather and climate predictions have substantially improved over past decades. We argue that despite a continued need for further addressing remaining limitations of their ...key components, numerical prediction systems have reached a sufficient level of maturity to examine and critically assess the suitability of Earth's current observing systems – remote and in situ, for prediction purposes; and that they can provide evidence‐based support for the deployment of future observational networks. We illustrate this point by presenting recent, co‐ordinated international efforts focused on Arctic observing systems, led in the framework of the Year of Polar Prediction and the H2020 project APPLICATE. The Arctic, one of the world's most rapidly changing regions, is relatively poorly covered in terms of in situ data but richly covered in terms of satellite data. In this study, we demonstrate that existing state‐of‐the‐art datasets and targeted sensitivity experiments produced with numerical prediction systems can inform us of the added value of existing or even hypothetical Arctic observations, in the context of predictions from hourly to interannual time‐scales. Furthermore, we argue that these datasets and experiments can also inform us how the uptake of Arctic observations in numerical prediction systems can be enhanced to maximise predictive skill. Based on these efforts we suggest that (a) conventional in situ observations in the Arctic play a particularly important role in initializing numerical weather forecasts during the winter season, (b) observations from satellite microwave sounders play a particularly important role during the summer season, and their enhanced usage over snow and sea ice is expected to further improve their impact on predictive skill in the Arctic region and beyond, (c) the deployment of a small number of in situ sea‐ice thickness monitoring devices at strategic sampling sites in the Arctic could be sufficient to monitor most of the large‐scale sea‐ice volume variability, and (d) sea‐ice thickness observations can improve the simulation of both the sea ice and near‐surface air temperatures on seasonal time‐scales in the Arctic and beyond.
Key results of the co‐ordinated efforts exploiting Numerical Prediction Systems to inform the design and enhanced exploitability of the Arctic observing system.
The atmospheric Hadley cells, which meet at the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), play critical roles in transporting heat, driving ocean circulation and supplying precipitation to the most ...heavily populated regions of the globe. Paleo-reconstructions can provide concrete evidence of how these major features of the atmospheric circulation can change in response to climate perturbations. While most such reconstructions have focused on ITCZ-related rainfall, here we show that trade wind proxies can document dynamical aspects of meridional ITCZ shifts. Theoretical expectations based on angular momentum constraints and results from freshwater hosing simulations with two different climate models predict that ITCZ shifts due to anomalous cooling of one hemisphere would be accompanied by a strengthening of the Hadley cell and trade winds in the colder hemisphere, with an opposite response in the warmer hemisphere. This expectation of hemispherically asymmetric trade wind changes is confirmed by proxy data of coastal upwelling and windblown dust from the Atlantic basin during Heinrich stadials, showing trade wind strengthening in the Northern Hemisphere and weakening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics in concert with southward ITCZ shifts. Data from other basins show broadly similar patterns, though improved constraints on past trade wind changes are needed outside the Atlantic Basin. The asymmetric trade wind changes identified here suggest that ITCZ shifts are also marked by intensification of the ocean's wind-driven subtropical cells in the cooler hemisphere and a weakening in the warmer hemisphere, which induces cross-equatorial oceanic heat transport into the colder hemisphere. This response would be expected to prevent extreme meridional ITCZ shifts in response to asymmetric heating or cooling. Understanding trade wind changes and their coupling to cross-equatorial ocean cells is key to better constraining ITCZ shifts and ocean and atmosphere dynamical changes in the past, especially for regions and time periods for which few paleodata exist, and also improves our understanding of what changes may occur in the future.
•In ITCZ shifts, trade winds strengthen in cooler hemisphere, weaken in warmer.•Asymmetric trade wind responses during ITCZ shifts predicted by theory and models.•Proxy data show stronger NH trades, weaker SH trades during Heinrich stadials.•Trade wind changes drive heat transport into the NH by ocean subtropical cells.•Trade wind proxies trace dynamics of Hadley cell and ocean response during stadials.
We attribute and describe the governing mechanisms of decadal cold excursions in the subpolar North Atlantic of similar amplitude and duration to cold events reconstructed from climate‐proxies during ...the last millennium detected in an ensemble of three transient and one unperturbed climate simulation. The cold events are attributed to internal regional climate variability, with varying external forcing increasing their magnitude and frequency. The underlying general mechanism consists of a feedback loop initiated by a weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, which induces persistent colder and fresher surface conditions in the Labrador Sea and, eventually, a deep convection shutdown. We thus exclude a hemispheric climate reorganization or a weak ocean overturning circulation as necessary trigger for such events. An associated northeastward atmospheric cold advection over the Labrador Sea deteriorates local living conditions on south Greenland, essential for the sustainability of the Norse settlements.
Key Points
Internal climate variability explains North Atlantic decadal cold events
Cold events are triggered by weakening of subpolar gyre, not of AMOC
Related deteriorated conditions contribute to end Greenland Norse settlements
Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to ...insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.
We investigate the effects of solar forcing on the North Atlantic (NA) summer climate, in climate simulations with Earth System Models (ESMs), over the preindustrial past millennium (AD 850–1849). We ...use one simulation and a four-member ensemble performed with the MPI-ESM-P and CESM-LME models, respectively, forced only by low-scaling variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We apply linear methods (correlation and regression) and composite analysis to estimate the NA surface and tropospheric climatic responses to decadal solar variability. Linear methods in the CESM ensemble indicate a weak summer response in sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500-hPa geopotential height to TSI, with decreased values over Greenland and increased values over the NA subtropics. Composite analysis indicates that, during high-TSI periods, SLP decreases over eastern Canada and the geopotential height at 500-hPa increases over the subtropical NA. The possible summer response of SSTs is overlapped by model internal variability. Therefore, for low-scaling TSI changes, state-of-the-art ESMs disagree on the NA surface climatic effect of solar forcing indicated by proxy-based studies during the preindustrial millennium. The analysis of control simulations indicates that, in all climatic variables studied, spurious patterns of apparent solar response may arise from the analysis of single model simulations.
Abstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998–2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of ...tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26 °C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11 °C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03 °C.
Antarctic sea ice prediction has garnered increasing attention in recent years, particularly in the context of the recent record lows of February 2022 and 2023. As Antarctica becomes a climate change ...hotspot, as polar tourism booms, and as scientific expeditions continue to explore this remote continent, the capacity to anticipate sea ice conditions weeks to months in advance is in increasing demand. Spurred by recent studies that uncovered physical mechanisms of Antarctic sea ice predictability and by the intriguing large variations of the observed sea ice extent in recent years, the Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) project was initiated in 2017, building upon the Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Network. The SIPN South project annually coordinates spring-to-summer predictions of Antarctic sea ice conditions, to allow robust evaluation and intercomparison, and to guide future development in polar prediction systems. In this paper, we present and discuss the initial SIPN South results collected over six summer seasons (December-February 2017-2018 to 2022-2023). We use data from 22 unique contributors spanning five continents that have together delivered more than 3000 individual forecasts of sea ice area and concentration. The SIPN South median forecast of the circumpolar sea ice area captures the sign of the recent negative anomalies, and the verifying observations are systematically included in the 10-90% range of the forecast distribution. These statements also hold at the regional level except in the Ross Sea where the systematic biases and the ensemble spread are the largest. A notable finding is that the group forecast, constructed by aggregating the data provided by each contributor, outperforms most of the individual forecasts, both at the circumpolar and regional levels. This indicates the value of combining predictions to average out model-specific errors. Finally, we find that dynamical model predictions (i.e., based on process-based general circulation models) generally perform worse than statistical model predictions (i.e., data-driven empirical models including machine learning) in representing the regional variability of sea ice concentration in summer. SIPN South is a collaborative community project that is hosted on a shared public repository. The forecast and verification data used in SIPN South are publicly available in near-real time for further use by the polar research community, and eventually, policymakers.
We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth ...system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset.
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