This article applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) to examine the relationship between capital buffer, risk and efficiency adjustments over the macroeconomic cycles. Using a panel dataset ...of 32 Bangladeshi commercial banks over the period from 2000 to 2014, we find an inverse relationship between the business cycle and capital buffers, while a positive relationship between the business cycle and bank risk. These findings support the implementation of countercyclical capital buffers in Basel III Accord to ensure bank safety during economic downturns. We also observe that the bank efficiency positively responds to macroeconomic fluctuations. While examining the impact of capital buffers on bank behaviour, we find that low buffer banks raise the level of capital buffers and improve the efficiency over time. In contrast, high buffer banks incline to raise investment in risky projects by deterioration of capital ratios during economic upturns. In this case, high buffer banks in developing countries should take risk and efficiency issues into great consideration and force low capitalized banks to follow the Basel III guidelines more stringently to adjust capital buffers, risk and efficiency with macroeconomic bounce. Also, developing countries, regulatory bodies are adopting and implementing Basel guidelines slowly, and thus it has volunteer impact on the buffer, risk and efficiency adjustments. So the regulatory bodies should be adapted the global financial changes that will be enhanced country’s financial market.
Abstract
Nonperforming loans play a critical role in financial institutions' overall performance and can be controlled by forecasting the probable nonperforming loans. This paper employs a series of ...machine learning techniques to forecast bank nonperforming loans on emerging countries' financial institutions. Using quarterly cross‐sectional data of 322 banks from 15 emerging countries, this study finds that advanced machine learning‐based models outperform simple linear techniques in forecasting bank nonperforming loans. Among all 14 linear and nonlinear models, the random forest model outperforms other models. It achieves a 76.10% accuracy in forecasting nonperforming loans. The result is robust in different performance metrics. The variable importance analysis reveals that bank diversification is the most critical determinant for future nonperforming loans of a bank. Additionally, this study revealed that macroeconomic factors are less prominent in predicting nonperforming loans compared with bank‐specific factors.
PurposeThis study examines the relationship between banks' competition performance and risk-taking behavior concerning the impacts of bank size and the recent global financial crisis. The analysis ...empirically uses dynamic panel data from 1137 banks of the BRICS countries (i.e. Brazil Russia India China and South Africa) for the period 2000–2015.Design/methodology/approachDynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) has been used primarily to examine the effect of bank competition on performance and risk-taking. Later the paper validates the core results by using three-stage least squares (3SLS) and incorporating alternative measure of competition in baseline equations.FindingsThis study confirms the significant impact of competition that complies with the structure-conduct-performance hypothesis quiet life hypothesis and “competition fragility” view. However, the key robust results are as follows: (1) in competitive markets large banks are more efficient than small banks; (2) there is a nonlinear relationship between competition performance and risk; (3) across bank size competition heterogeneously affects profitability efficiency risk and stability; (4) notably small banks are as efficient as large banks during crisis but shared with risk; and (5) small banks also stable during crisis in highly concentrated markets but less stable in competitive environments.Practical implicationsThis study promotes higher market power for the bank's profitability and financial stability. More intently policymakers should nurture both cost and revenue efficiency for large banks as these are less efficient than small banks in concentrated markets though these banks produce risk. Hence those banks should be cautious to minimize non-performing loans and maximize stability regarding financial and efficiency. Based on the nonlinear pattern of competition the regulators should adopt different policies for short and long run. It also recommends encouraging commercial and cooperative banks in the BRICS region as these are more efficient risk-averse and better stabilized than other types of banks.Originality/valueA good number of studies are available in the current literature which examines the impact of bank competition on either bank performance or risk-taking in a single country or cross country analysis. However, very few studies examine the relationship between bank performance and risk-taking behavior concerning the impacts of competition (non-linear and quadratic) size financial crisis and ownership structure together. Moreover, there is a dearth of literature on this topic that built on BRICS economies.
This study empirically investigates the quadratic effects of bank diversification, size and global financial crisis on risk-taking behaviour and performance. To unfold those effects, it uses the ...generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and also uses an unbalanced panel data set on a large sample consisting of 542 bank-year observations between 2004 and 2015. The key results for emerging economies are as follows: (a) increasingly higher non-performing loan ratio makes the bank underperforming and unstable; (b) benefits derived from bank diversification are heterogeneous and confirms portfolio diversification theory; (c) small-sized banks of Bangladesh ensure higher advantage from portfolio mix over large banks; (d) large banks of South Africa achieve higher benefit from income diversification over small-sized banks; and finally, this study evidences that during the financial crisis, emerging economies can use portfolio diversification as a mechanism for controlling risk and improve bank performance. Mainly, emerging countries can rely on income diversification and should involve this mechanism with systematic risk a great care of.
This paper examines the relationship of banks’ capital buffers, risk and efficiency adjustments with cyclical movements. Empirically, we have used dynamic panel data from 461 banks of the BRICS ...countries (i.e., Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the period 2007–2015 and we also have empirically included Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) to measure the efficiency. In contrast to the consequence of past investigations, this examination additionally affirms the noteworthy effect of macroeconomic fluctuations on the determination of capital buffers, risk and efficiency. The key results of five big emerging countries are as follows: (1) capital buffers of Russia, India, China, and South Africa behave counter-cyclically while it is pro-cyclical for Brazilian banks over the business cycle; (2) there is an anti-cyclical (pro-cyclical) and significant relation between risk (stability) and business cycle for four countries and no significant relation for South Africa; (3) it shows pro-cyclicality of bank’s efficiency except for South African banks; and (4) notably, the adjustment speed of capital buffers is higher for Chinese and Indian banks than Brazilian, Russian and South African banks. Finally, it provides some policy implications for the emerging economies regarding capital buffers, risk, and efficiency adjustment decisions.
The main purpose of this study is to identify the impact of intellectual capital efficiency (ICE) also known as knowledge capital along with its components human capital efficiency (HCE) and ...structural capital efficiency (SCE) on bank risk-taking behavior in Bangladesh. To reveal this effect, the study uses generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator and Two Stages Least Square estimator (to check the Robustness) and unbalanced panel data of 32 commercial banks of Bangladesh consisting of 530 bank-year observations during the year 2003-2020. The main results of the study are: (a) ICE is significantly and positively connected with a bank's credit risk which indicates credit risk grows up with the increase of Intellectual capital efficiency, and (b) Both the human capital efficiency and structural capital efficiency positively impacts credit risk but the impact of SCE is not significant as HCE, (c) Bank performance (ROA), RWATA, macro variable inflation, and size have a negative impact on bank risk whereas ID and GGDP insignificant positively impact on bank's risk. Finally, the results of the study will assist the stakeholders, policymakers, and academicians for future research.
With the sustainable economy and the development of innovative technology, China is anticipated to have a large number of mobile payment (m-payment) users due to cultural influences and population ...size. This payment culture leads to a significant motivation to adopt m-payment services, which can stimulate new users from other groups. The role of cultural motivation is the most important factor in the m-payment context. This paper empirically examines the impact of cross-cultural motivation in the context of the practicing of social distancing behavior due to COVID-19 and the mobile payment (m-payment) context. We develop a conceptual model to validate user intention to use mobile payment systems during the COVID-19 crisis. Data were surveyed from 409 international students in China, and the model is validated using the AMOS structural equation modeling approach. Similar to the results of previous studies based on the adoption of mobile payment, this study also confirms the hypothesis testing. The key and robust result is that, due to cultural motivation and social distancing behavior, international students respond swiftly to the use of mobile payment services during COVID-19. Subsequently, perceived usefulness and awareness influence behavior intention to use mobile payment services. The findings of this study suggest that motivational characteristics, including the awareness of efficiency and the social distancing behavior due to COVID-19, play an important role in the adoption of mobile payment. As a result, the empirical results of this research provide useful information to stakeholders so that they can enhance m-payment services strategies and implement these successfully by considering various factors.
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the impacts of both Sharīʿah supervision and corporate social responsibility on banks’ risk-taking behavior and profitability. The analysis empirically uses dynamic ...and balanced panel data from 12 banks of Bangladesh for 2010–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
Dynamic panel generalized method of moments has been used primarily to examine the effects of Sharīʿah supervision and corporate social responsibility on risk-taking behavior and profitability. Later, the authors validate the core results using three-stage least squares and incorporates alternative risk and profitability measures in the baseline equation.
Findings
This study finds that Sharīʿah supervision heterogeneously derives benefits for Islamic banks and Islamic windows. Though there is no significant impact of female diversity on risk relying on board diversification, the bank can strengthen profitability. On the one hand, the annual changes in board composition reduce (increase) risk (financial and stability efficiency) but compromise profitability. Notably, socially responsible banks have been characterized as risk-averse and better stabilized (in terms of solvency and efficiency), more efficient and profitable.
Originality/value
Very few studies are available in the current literature which examine the impacts of Sharīʿah supervision and corporate social responsibility on either bank performance or risk-taking in the developing economy’s context.
This study aims to analyze the impact of trade openness and Sustainable Development Goals, Financial Development, and Technology on the economic growth of Brazil, Russia, India, China and Colombia, ...Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa countries. The present analysis employs a balanced panel data set from 1996 to 2022. This study also uses various tests, such as the Johansen–Fisher cointegration and Granger causality test. The study's findings suggest that economic growth, trade openness, Sustainable Development Goals, financial development, inflation, technology, labor forces, and financial openness have a long-term relationship among them. In the long run, a positive relationship exists between economic growth, trade openness, and the sustainable development goals index in (BRIC) and (CIVETS) countries. Based on the heterogeneous panel non-causality tests, the findings demonstrate that trade openness and Sustainable Development Goals are a unidirectional causality between trade openness, Sustainable Development Goals, and economic growth.
PDF
