Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount ...importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level.
We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval UI 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (–3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4).
China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system.
China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
A comprehensive evaluation of the burden of injury is an important foundation for selecting and formulating strategies of injury prevention. We present results from the Global Burden of Diseases, ...Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 of non-fatal and fatal outcomes of injury at the national and subnational level, and the changes in burden for key causes of injury over time in China.
Using the methods and results from GBD 2017, we describe the burden of total injury and the key causes of injury based on the rates of incidence, cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in China estimated using DisMod-MR 2.1. We additionally evaluated these results at the provincial level for the 34 subnational locations of China in 2017, measured the change of injury burden from 1990 to 2017, and compared age-standardised DALYs due to injuries at the provincial level against the expected rates based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development of income per capita, years of education, and total fertility rate.
In 2017, in China, there were 77·1 million (95% uncertainty interval UI 72·5–81·6) new cases of injury severe enough to warrant health care and 733 517 deaths (681 254–767 006) due to injuries. Injuries accounted for 7·0% (95% UI 6·6–7·2) of total deaths and 10·0% (9·5–10·5) of all-cause DALYs in China. In 2017, there was a three-times variation in age-standardised injury DALY rates between provinces of China, with the lowest value in Macao and the highest in Yunnan. Between 1990 and 2017, the age-standardised incidence rate of all injuries increased by 50·6% (95% UI 46·6–54·6) in China, whereas the age-standardised mortality and DALY rates decreased by 44·3% (41·1–48·9) and 48·1% (44·6–51·8), respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, all provinces of China experienced a substantial decline in DALY rates from all injuries ranging from 16·3% (3·1–28·6) in Shanghai and 60·4% (53·7–66·1) in Jiangxi. Age-standardised DALY rates for drowning; injuries from fire, heat and hot substances; adverse effects of medical treatments; animal contact; environmental heat and cold exposure; self-harm; and executions and police conflict each declined by more than 60% between 1990 and 2017.
Between 1990 and 2017, China experienced a decrease in the age-standardised DALY and mortality rates due to injury, despite an increase in the age-standardised incidence rate. These trends occurred in all provinces. The divergent trends in terms of incidence and mortality indicate that with rapid sociodemographic improvements, the case fatality of injuries has declined, which could be attributed to an improving health-care system but also to a decreasing severity of injuries over this time period.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India's 1·3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to ...report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016.
As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, we estimated suicide death rates (SDRs) for both sexes in each state of India from 1990 to 2016. We used various data sources for estimating cause-specific mortality in India. For suicide mortality in India before 2000, estimates were based largely on GBD covariates. For each state, we calculated the ratio of the observed SDR to the rate expected in geographies globally with similar GBD Socio-demographic Index in 2016 (ie, the observed-to-expected ratio); and assessed the age distribution of suicide deaths, and the men-to-women ratio of SDR over time. Finally, we assessed the probability for India and the states of reaching the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in SDR from 2015 to 2030, using location-wise trends of the age-standardised SDR from 1990 to 2016. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates.
There were 230 314 (95% UI 194 058–250 260) suicide deaths in India in 2016. India's contribution to global suicide deaths increased from 25·3% in 1990 to 36·6% in 2016 among women, and from 18·7% to 24·3% among men. Age-standardised SDR among women in India reduced by 26·7% from 20·0 (95% UI 16·5–23·5) in 1990 to 14·7 (13·1–16·2) per 100 000 in 2016, but the age-standardised SDR among men was the same in 1990 (22·3 95% UI 14·4–27·4 per 100 000) and 2016 (21·2 14·6–23·6 per 100 000). SDR in women was 2·1 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, and the observed-to-expected ratio was 2·74, ranging from 0·45 to 4·54 between the states. SDR in men was 1·4 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 1·31, ranging from 0·40 to 2·42 between the states. There was a ten-fold variation between the states in the SDR for women and six-fold variation for men in 2016. The men-to-women ratio of SDR for India was 1·34 in 2016, ranging from 0·97 to 4·11 between the states. The highest age-specific SDRs among women in 2016 were for ages 15–29 years and 75 years or older, and among men for ages 75 years or older. Suicide was the leading cause of death in India in 2016 for those aged 15–39 years; 71·2% of the suicide deaths among women and 57·7% among men were in this age group. If the trends observed up to 2016 continue, the probability of India achieving the SDG SDR reduction target in 2030 is zero, and the majority of the states with 81·3% of India's population have less than 10% probability, three states have a probability of 10·3–15·0%, and six have a probability of 25·1–36·7%.
India's proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. SDR in India is higher than expected for its Socio-Demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
A systematic understanding of population-level trends in deaths due to road injuries at the subnational level over time for India's 1·4 billion people, by age, sex, and type of road user is not ...readily available; we aimed to fill this knowledge gap.
As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the rate of deaths due to road injuries in each state of India from 1990 to 2017 based on several verbal autopsy data sources. We calculated the number of deaths and death rate for road injuries by type of road user, and assessed the age and sex distribution of these deaths over time. Based on the trends of the age-standardised death rate from 1990 to 2017, we projected the age-standardised death rate to 2030 to assess if the states of India would meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to halve the death rate for road injuries from 2015 by 2020 or 2030. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates.
In 2017, 218 876 deaths (95% UI 201 734 to 231 141) due to road injuries occurred in India, with an age-standardised death rate for road injuries of 17·2 deaths (15·7 to 18·1) per 100 000 population, which was much higher in males (25·7 deaths 23·5 to 27·4 per 100 000) than in females (8·5 deaths 7·2 to 9·1 per 100 000). The number of deaths due to road injuries in India increased by 58·7% (43·6 to 74·7) from 1990 to 2017, but the age-standardised death rate decreased slightly, by 9·2% (0·6 to 18·3). In 2017, pedestrians accounted for 76 729 (35·1%) of all deaths due to road injuries, motorcyclists accounted for 67 524 (30·9%), motor vehicle occupants accounted for 57 802 (26·4%), and cyclists accounted for 15 324 (7·0%). India had a higher age-standardised death rate for road injury among motorcyclists (4·9 deaths 3·9–5·4 per 100 000 population) and cyclists (1·2 deaths 0·9–1·4 per 100 000 population) than the global average. Road injury was the leading cause of death in males aged 15 to 39 years in India in 2017, and the second leading cause in this age group for both sexes combined. The overall age-standardised death rate for road injuries varied by up to 2·6 times between states in 2017. Wide variations were seen between the states in the percentage change in age-standardised death rate for road injuries from 1990 to 2017, ranging from a reduction of 38·2% (22·3 to 51·7) in Delhi to an increase of 17·0% (0·6 to 34·7) in Odisha. If the trends estimated up to 2017 were to continue, no state in India or India overall would achieve the SDG 2020 target in 2020 or even in 2030.
India's contribution to the global number of deaths due to road injuries is increasing, and the country is unlikely to meet the SDG targets if the trends up to 2017 continue. India needs to implement evidence-based road safety interventions, promote strong policies and traffic law enforcement, have better road and vehicle design, and improve care for road injuries at the state level to meet the SDG goal.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical ...care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.
We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.
In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval UI 24·30–30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78–1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331–412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11–16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40–57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98–30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (−0·2% –2·1 to 2·7). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (−3·6% –7·4 to 4·0). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0–10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7–12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82–141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90–170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions.
TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study ...(GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.
We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost YLLs and years lived with disability YLDs) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.
Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million 95% UI 247–308) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million 8·8–9·4). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% 34–44 and DALYs by 15% 9–21) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% 26–30 and DALYs by 27% 24–31) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% 38·6–46·1), migraine (16·3% 11·7–20·8), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% 9·0–12·1), and meningitis (7·9% 6·6–10·4). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 1·05–1·20), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% 11·8–35·1 of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% 10·8–17·5 of DALYs are risk attributable).
Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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