Over the past three decades, Croatia has been experiencing a process of depopulation and population aging. This is the result of demographic changes in the past, especially in the second half of the ...20th century. In this paper, the index of demographic-depressed areas (iddp) for the settlements of Croatia was derived using GIS multicriteria analysis (GIS-MCDA). An iddp was derived for all Croatian counties (21) and detailed analysis of demographic-depressed and vital areas was conducted for the settlements of Međimurje County (131). This is recognised as the county with the highest achieved level of socio-economic development. A new methodological framework for deriving an iddp based on eight selected demographic variables has been proposed. The iddp was derived with GIS based on eight selected criteria using data from 2011 census results. The degree of demographic depression was divided into five classes: (A) distinctly depressed area, (B) less depressed area, (C) area at the edge of demographic depression, (D) vital area, and (E) distinctly vital area. The accuracy of the derived index was verified by analysing age-sex pyramids of the most depressed and vital settlements. The distinctly depressed demographic (A) is the predominant form of demographic settlement development in the six counties. These are areas that have been affected by rural exodus and depopulation, both of which were further intensified by the war from 1991 to 1995. Međimurje County was categorised as a (D) vital area. However, of the 131 settlements in the county, 28 were identified as demographic-depressed and 72 as vital. More than half of these 72 settlements (42) have the characteristics of a distinctly vital area, which is the highest proportion among all counties. The most vital settlements were Parag, Kuršanec, and Piškorovec. Their main feature is that a significant proportion of their population belongs to the Roma demographic. Derived population pyramids confirm the consistency of the generated index. Međimurje County is characterised by high variability among results (from extremely depressed to extremely non-depressed spaces), which indicates the impossibility of adopting uniform measures and policies throughout the county. In the future, the identified vital settlements have the potential to become the county's primary demographic resource. The proposed classification of settlements according to the derived index (iddp) could serve as a useful instrument in designing development policies or measures for this specific administrative-territorial unit.
This paper analyses demographic ageing of the population in the County of Šibenik-Knin by using basic demographic indicators based on data collected from population censuses from 1971 to 2011. It ...analyses spatial differentiation of the ageing process at the level of the County, micro-regions, towns/municipalities and settlements. The research also provides a comparison of population ageing in different counties of the Republic of Croatia, from which it is evident that the County of Šibenik-Knin, as well as the Country of Lika-Senj, has the oldest population in Croatia. Ageing in the County of Šibenik-Knin, which was triggered by extreme rural exodus that was most intensive from the end of 1960s to the early 1970s, as well as by continuous declining fertility rates and by inherited age composition, was recorded at all territorial levels of the County. Although the ageing process started in littoral area (Primorje), hinterland (Zagora) experienced a faster and more intensive ageing. Based on numerous indicators of demographic ageing and its intensity, and compared with the point value indicators of ageing, it is evident that the population of the County of Šibenik-Knin is characterized by advanced old age. However, more than half of the observed settlements are characterized by very advanced or extremely advanced old age.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia's population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from ...supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migtration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends. // ABSTRACT IN FRENCH: Les projections à moyen terme pour la Croatie (2001-2031) ont été réalisées selon la méthode des composantes par cohorte. Elles sont présentées à travers 8 scénarios se basant sur diverses hypothèses au regard de la fertilité, les migrations et la mortalité. Les écarts entre les scénarios proviennent uniquement des différents chiffres relatifs à la fertilité et aux migrations, sachant que les hypothèses retenues pour la mortalité sont identiques pour tous les scénarios. Pour la population de base, on a pris les données du dernier recensement (2001) et évalué leurs chiffres corrigés au ler janvier. Les résultats des projections montrent que la dépopulation générale et naturelle de la Croatie va se poursuivre dans les 30 années à venir. A la fin de cette période (2031), on observera un vieillissement de la population par rapport au début (2001). Les différents scénarios ne présentent des écarts qu'au niveau de l'intensité du déroulement de ce processus de vieillissement, mais la tendance reste la même. Ainsi, dans les scénarios prévoyant un solde migratoire positif, le processus de vieillissement serait un peu plus lent. Le seul scénario supposant un maintien de la proportion de jeunes au niveau de 2001 et une lente croissance démographique, avec à la fin de la période de projection un nombre d'habitants supérieur à celui de 2001, est celle qui suppose un taux de fertilité élevé et inclut les migrations. L'influence des migrations est très grande pour les futurs processus démographiques. En effet, si elles ne peuvent influer à court terme sur l'évolution des processus démographiques, elles peuvent ralentir leurs tendances négatives déjà existantes. Reprinted by permission of the Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb
Analysis of ethnically mixed marriages in the Former Yugoslavia, for the period 1970—2005, shows that after 1990 in all former Yugoslav republics and provinces (except Montenegro) degradation of ...inter-ethnical relationships induced a fall of inter-ethnical relations, especially at the beginning of 1990. Vojvodina is still singled out (even if there is a decreasing trend after 1990) as a territory with the highest share of exogam marriages (around 25%), while Kosovo and Metohia represent a territory with the lowest shares during the entire period of observation. The most exceptional changes after 1990 occurred in Croatia where the share of ethnically mixed marriages decreased from 19% to around 7% which was mostly a reflection of changes in behaviour of the majority group towards ethnically mixed marriages. The group that was most „open" on the territory of the Former Yugoslavia were the Serbs in Vojvodina until 2001 and after that the Montenegrins, with the highest percentage of interethnic marriages (more than 15%) while all other majority groups are characterized by certain reticence in marrying other nationalities. Concerning the differences between men and women towards ethnically mixed marriages, it shaws that women are, in general, more endogam than men, meaning that they seldom marry outside their group. This is especially characteristic for the Montenegrin's women in Montenegro. When observing the degree of interethnic relations between minority groups and the majority group, it follows that there have not been any changes. In general, degree of integration is higher, meaning that the inter-ethnic relations are more frequent between nationalities that are closer in cultural, religious and linguistic way. Unlike that, during all the period of observation, there is a highly marked segregation between nationalities that belong to different cultural and religious circles, which is especially emphasised in Macedonia.
The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031,
determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in ...regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.
The issue of ethnicity was set in all censuses of SFRY, as well as in the first censuses in countries that were created after its disintegration. When analyzing the censuses it can be concluded that ...it is a changeable category. Not only was the manner of forming the question in censuses changing, but also the number of categories of nationality and their order in published census' results. It depended on state policy and the political situation preceding the censuses. Since the answer on the issues of ethnicity is a subjective criterion, and it was written down according to the freely declared statement of the residents, guaranteed by the Constitution. It has often happened that same individuals have declared themselves differently from one census to another, and also some categories of ethnicity have vanished and some others were created. Although in SFRY nations and ethnicities were equal, still indirectly in published results, existence of these two categories was indicated. But, in newly created countries, the manner of forming the question of ethnicity was changed, their number and order were also changed and the notion of 'minority' was again introduced, indicating, beyond doubt, a different status of nationality (except the majority) from the one in the former Yugoslavia.
U ovome radu iznesena je analiza evolucije izvanbračnih rađanja u Hrvatskoj i nekim europskim zemljama od 1950. do 1994. godine. Kako bi objasnio promjenu i razinu rađanja izvan braka u Hrvatskoj, ...autor stavlja u korelaciju nupcijalitet, fertilitet i udajnu dob žene. Također se analizira i promjena izvanbračnih rađanja po općinama i županijama Hrvatske, pri čemu su istaknute razlikama koje postoje među stanovništvom hrvatske i ne-hrvatske narodnosti u Republici.
Srednjoročne projekcije Hrvatske do 2031. godine izrađene su kohort-komponentnom metodom. Prikazane su u osam varijanata koje se temelje na postavljenim hipotezama o promjenjivom fertilitetu, ...migracijama i mortalitetu. Razlike u varijantama isključivo su rezultat razlika u fertilitetu i u migracijama, budući da su usvojene hipoteze o mortalitetu identične za sve varijante. Kao bazno stanovništvo uzete su korigirane procjene stanovništva na dan 1. siječnja prema posljednjem popisu 2001. Rezultati projekcija pokazuju da će se u sljedećih trideset godina nastaviti i ukupna i prirodna depopulacija stanovništva Hrvatske, koje će na kraju projekcijskog razdoblja (2031.) biti demografski starije nego na početku (2001.). Razlike po varijantama postoje jedino u intenzitetu odvijanja procesa starenja, a smjer procesa ostao bi isti. Tako bi se u uvjetima predviđenim varijantama koje računaju s pozitivnim migracijskim saldom, proces starenja odvijao nešto sporije. Jedina varijanta koja pretpostavlja održavanje udjela mladih na razini iz 2001., spori demografski rast, te na kraju projekcijskoga razdoblja veći broj stanovnika nego 2001. godine, jest varijanta visokoga fertiliteta koja uključuje migracije. Utjecaj migracija vrlo je važan za buduće demografske procese. One, naime, ne mogu u kratkom roku utjecati na smjer demografskih procesa, ali mogu ublažiti već postojeće negativne trendove.
U ovom članku analizira se razvoj mortaliteta u Hrvatskoj prema spolu i starosti od 1950. do 1998. godine i nastoji se objasniti kako je mortalitet određenih dobnih grupa utjecao na prosječnu dužinu ...života živorođenih. S tim u vezi provedena je i analiza strukture umrlih prema uzrocima smrti.
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