IMPORTANCE: Substance use disorders, including alcohol use disorders and drug use disorders, and intentional injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, are important causes of early ...death and disability in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence in the United States. DESIGN AND SETTING: Validated small-area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence. EXPOSURES: County of residence. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Age-standardized mortality rates by US county (N = 3110), year, sex, and cause. RESULTS: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 2 848 768 deaths due to substance use disorders and intentional injuries recorded in the United States. Mortality rates from alcohol use disorders (n = 256 432), drug use disorders (n = 542 501), self-harm (n = 1 289 086), and interpersonal violence (n = 760 749) varied widely among counties. Mortality rates decreased for alcohol use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence at the national level between 1980 and 2014; however, over the same period, the percentage of counties in which mortality rates increased for these causes was 65.4% for alcohol use disorders, 74.6% for self-harm, and 6.6% for interpersonal violence. Mortality rates from drug use disorders increased nationally and in every county between 1980 and 2014, but the relative increase varied from 8.2% to 8369.7%. Relative and absolute geographic inequalities in mortality, as measured by comparing the 90th and 10th percentile among counties, decreased for alcohol use disorders and interpersonal violence but increased substantially for drug use disorders and self-harm between 1980 and 2014. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality due to alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence varied widely among US counties, both in terms of levels of mortality and trends. These estimates may be useful to inform efforts to target prevention, diagnosis, and treatment to improve health and reduce inequalities.
Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer ...burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.
Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.
Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval UI 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 48·9–80·0 per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 48·5–73·6 per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 42·8–71·9 per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 26·0–37·1 per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 26·6–34·1 per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 23·6–34·0 per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.
The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Psoriasis is a common, chronic, inflammatory, debilitating, systemic disease with a great impact on healthcare systems worldwide. As targeted therapies have transformed the therapeutic landscape, ...updated estimates of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) imposed by psoriasis are necessary in order to evaluate the effects of past health care policies and to orient and inform new national and international healthcare strategies.
Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 study, which collates a systematic review of relevant scientific literature, national surveys, claims data, and primary care sources on the prevalence of psoriasis. Prevalence data were combined with disability weight (DW) to yield years lived with disability (YLDs). Measures of burden at global, regional, and national levels were generated for incidence, prevalence, and YLDs, due to psoriatic disease. All measures were reported as absolute numbers, percentages, and crude and age-adjusted rates per 100,000 persons. In addition, psoriasis burden was assessed by socio-demographic index (SDI).
According to the GBD 2019 methodology, there were 4,622,594 (95% uncertainty interval or UI 4,458,904-4,780,771) incident cases of psoriasis worldwide in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 57.8 (95% UI 55.8-59.7) per 100,000 people. With respect to 1990, this corresponded to a decrease of 20.0% (95% UI -20.2 to -19.8). By sex, the age-standardized incidence rate was similar between men 57.8 (95% UI 55.8-59.8) per 100,000 people and women (57.8 (95% UI 55.8-59.7) per 100,000 people. With respect to 1990, this corresponded to a decrease by 19.5% (95% UI -19.8 to -19.2) and by 20.4% (95% UI -20.7 to -20.2) for men and women, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 persons was found to vary widely across geographic locations. Regionally, high-income countries and territories had the highest age-standardized incidence rate of psoriasis 112.6 (95% UI 108.9-116.1), followed by high-middle SDI countries 69.4 (95% UI 67.1-71.9), while low SDI countries reported the lowest rate 38.1 (95% UI 36.8-39.5). Similar trends were detected for prevalence and YLDs.
In general, psoriasis burden is greatest in the age group of 60-69 years, with a relatively similar burden among men and women. The burden is disproportionately greater in high-income and high SDI index countries of North America and Europe. With advances in psoriasis therapeutics, objective evaluation of psoriasis disease burden is critical to track the progress at the population level.
Summary Background With 4 years until 2015, it is essential to monitor progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5. Although estimates of maternal and child mortality were published ...in 2010, an update of estimates is timely in view of additional data sources that have become available and new methods developed. Our aim was to update previous estimates of maternal and child mortality using better data and more robust methods to provide the best available evidence for tracking progress on MDGs 4 and 5. Methods We update the analyses of the progress towards MDGs 4 and 5 from 2010 with additional surveys, censuses, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data. For children, we estimate early neonatal (0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (ages 1–4 years), and under-5 mortality. We use an improved model for estimating mortality by age under 5 years. For maternal mortality, our updated analysis includes greater than 1000 additional site-years of data. We tested a large set of alternative models for maternal mortality; we used an ensemble model based on the models with the best out-of-sample predictive validity to generate new estimates from 1990 to 2011. Findings Under-5 deaths have continued to decline, reaching 7·2 million in 2011 of which 2·2 million were early neonatal, 0·7 million late neonatal, 2·1 million postneonatal, and 2·2 million during childhood (ages 1–4 years). Comparing rates of decline from 1990 to 2000 with 2000 to 2011 shows that 106 countries have accelerated declines in the child mortality rate in the past decade. Maternal mortality has also continued to decline from 409 100 (uncertainty interval 382 900–437 900) in 1990 to 273 500 (256 300–291 700) deaths in 2011. We estimate that 56 100 maternal deaths in 2011 were HIV-related deaths during pregnancy. Based on recent trends in developing countries, 31 countries will achieve MDG 4, 13 countries MDG 5, and nine countries will achieve both. Interpretation Even though progress on reducing maternal and child mortality in most countries is accelerating, most developing countries will take many years past 2015 to achieve the targets of the MDGs 4 and 5. Similarly, although there continues to be progress on maternal mortality the pace is slow, without any overall evidence of acceleration. Immediate concerted action is needed for a large number of countries to achieve MDG 4 and MDG 5. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
...other major trends noted in GBD 2013 include a 71% reduction in the number of cases of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) infection. Because such cases were not included in the current estimates, ...this may have led to an underestimation of the burden of cysticercosis by the GBD 2013. ...this means that part of the disability incurred by other neurological and mental health disorders caused by NCC increases the DALYs of these diseases, making other disorders look less important. ...terms such as prevalence or cases are not always clearly defined in GBD models for individual diseases, which can create some confusion when interpreting the meaning of the results. ...we have not seen meaningful declines in diseases such as hookworm infection, trichuriasis, and schistosomiasis, while for dengue, leishmaniasis, and foodborne trematodiases, we have seen substantial increases 3. ...we need to consider adopting public health policies to address these trends and adapt our current approaches to specifically guide better disease surveillance, improved water quality and sanitation, affordable diagnostic tests, access to healthcare and medications, and further investments in new preventive and disease-control technologies.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea ...incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.
We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.
The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval UI 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.
By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Although preventable, tetanus still claims tens of thousands of deaths each year. The patterns and distribution of mortality from tetanus have not been well characterized. We identified the global, ...regional, and national levels and trends of mortality from neonatal and non-neonatal tetanus based on the results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies and mortality surveillance data covering 12,534 site-years from 1980 to 2014 were used. Mortality from tetanus was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble modeling strategy.
There were 56,743 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 48,199 to 80,042) deaths due to tetanus in 2015; 19,937 (UI: 17,021 to 23,467) deaths occurred in neonates; and 36,806 (UI: 29,452 to 61,481) deaths occurred in older children and adults. Of the 19,937 neonatal tetanus deaths, 45% of deaths occurred in South Asia, and 44% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the 36,806 deaths after the neonatal period, 47% of deaths occurred in South Asia, 36% in sub-Saharan Africa, and 12% in Southeast Asia. Between 1990 and 2015, the global mortality rate due to neonatal tetanus dropped by 90% and that due to non-neonatal tetanus dropped by 81%. However, tetanus mortality rates were still high in a number of countries in 2015. The highest rates of neonatal tetanus mortality (more than 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya. The highest rates of mortality from tetanus after the neonatal period (more than 5 deaths per 100,000 population) were observed in Somalia, South Sudan, and Kenya.
Though there have been tremendous strides globally in reducing the burden of tetanus, tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths from tetanus could be prevented each year by an already available inexpensive and effective vaccine. Availability of more high quality data could help narrow the uncertainty of tetanus mortality estimates.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and ...disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (- 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment.
Peter J Hotez, Ashish Damania * E-mail: hotez@bcm.edu Affiliations Sabin Vaccine Institute and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor ...College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA, Department of Biology, Baylor University, Waco, Texas, USA, Center for Health and Biosciences, James A Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Houston, Texas, USA ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8770-1042 Ashish Damania Contributed equally to this work with: The GBD 2013 largely confirms the conclusions of the WHO and other data analyzed previously. ...the G20 nations and Nigeria together account for 51% of the global DALYs due to NTDs and helminth infections and most of the DALYs resulting from Chagas disease, dengue, and leprosy (Figs 1 and 2).
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Seborrheic dermatitis (SD) is a chronic skin disease affecting infants, adolescents, and adults. The cause of SD is not known. Previous studies suggested genetic and environmental roles in the ...etiology of the disease. However, epidemiological data on SD have been scarce. The study aimed to analyze the burden of SD. We analyzed national and macro-regional SD data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) resources. Regression analysis was performed to compute the annual percent change (APC) and identify significant changes in the temporal prevalence trends of SD from 1990 to 2019 relative to age-standardized and crude world population. Pearson correlation test was used to evaluate the association between prevalence and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) at a macro-regional level. Over the years, from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence of SD had a slow growth trend, with an APC of + 0.10% (
p
< 0.001), while crude prevalence has been showing a greater increase with an APC of +0.32 (
p
< 0.001). In 2019, the regions with the highest prevalence in the world were Sub-Saharan Africa and North America, while Central Asia and Eastern Europe showed the lowest prevalence. Prevalence distribution by age showed an increase starting at the age class 60–64, then peaked at the age class 80–84, and a subsequent decrease. Males appeared to be slightly more affected than females at older ages. Correlation patterns between prevalence and SDI were not significant. In this study, we found that the prevalence of SD varies between the geographical regions. However, the overall age-standardized prevalence of the disease has been stable throughout 30 years (1990–2019).
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