Data from the Global Burden of Disease study indicate that there were 319,400 deaths due to rheumatic heart disease and 33.4 million cases of rheumatic heart disease in 2015. The highest death and ...prevalence rates were found in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa.
According to the Global Burden of Disease Study, between 1990 and 2013, global cardiovascular mortality increased by 55% as a result of aging and by 25% as a result of population growth. A 39% ...decrease in age-specific death rates resulted in a 41% increase in cardiovascular mortality.
Globally, deaths from cardiovascular and circulatory diseases are increasing.
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This increase represents the combined effect of population growth, the aging of populations, and epidemiologic changes in cardiovascular disease. It is important to disentangle these drivers of the observed trends in global mortality for a number of reasons. First, regional and national investments in cardiovascular health can target only the epidemiologic causes of cardiovascular disease. Second, understanding the roles and relative magnitude of these demographic and epidemiologic trends is important in planning for the health care system and in developing policy. Third, the effects of the aging and growth of the . . .
Summary Background The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke ...prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. Methods We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals UI) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. Findings Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5–92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7–76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2–73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4–34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2–29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. Interpretation Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
Summary Background Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological ...trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and WHO regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR), based on disease-specific, pre-specified associations between incidence, prevalence, and mortality, to calculate regional and country-specific estimates of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by age group (<75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income, and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Findings We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). From 1990 to 2010, the age-standardised incidence of stroke significantly decreased by 12% (95% CI 6–17) in high-income countries, and increased by 12% (–3 to 22) in low-income and middle-income countries, albeit non-significantly. Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31–41) and low-income and middle-income countries (20%, 15–30). In 2010, the absolute numbers of people with first stroke (16·9 million), stroke survivors (33 million), stroke-related deaths (5·9 million), and DALYs lost (102 million) were high and had significantly increased since 1990 (68%, 84%, 26%, and 12% increase, respectively), with most of the burden (68·6% incident strokes, 52·2% prevalent strokes, 70·9% stroke deaths, and 77·7% DALYs lost) in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2010, 5·2 million (31%) strokes were in children (aged <20 years old) and young and middle-aged adults (20–64 years), to which children and young and middle-aged adults from low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%) and 4·0 million (78%), respectively, of the burden. Additionally, we noted significant geographical differences of between three and ten times in stroke burden between GBD regions and countries. More than 62% of new strokes, 69·8% of prevalent strokes, 45·5% of deaths from stroke, and 71·7% of DALYs lost because of stroke were in people younger than 75 years. Interpretation Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing. Further study is needed to improve understanding of stroke determinants and burden worldwide, and to establish causes of disparities and changes in trends in stroke burden between countries of different income levels. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life ...expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how China's health burden compares with other nations. Methods We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5–1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948 700 deaths, 774 500–1 024 600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934 000 deaths, 846 600–1 032 300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2–32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9–43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010. Interpretation The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for China's health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background The burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke varies between regions and over time. With differences in prognosis, prevalence of risk factors, and treatment strategies, knowledge ...of stroke pathological type is important for targeted region-specific health-care planning for stroke and could inform priorities for type-specific prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990–2010. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR) to calculate regional and country-specific estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, by age group (aged <75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Findings We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). Worldwide, the burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke increased significantly between 1990 and 2010 in terms of the absolute number of people with incident ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke (37% and 47% increase, respectively), number of deaths (21% and 20% increase), and DALYs lost (18% and 14% increase). In the past two decades in high-income countries, incidence of ischaemic stroke reduced significantly by 13% (95% CI 6–18), mortality by 37% (19–39), DALYs lost by 34% (16–36), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 21% (10–27). For haemorrhagic stroke, incidence reduced significantly by 19% (1–15), mortality by 38% (32–43), DALYs lost by 39% (32–44), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 27% (19–35). By contrast, in low-income and middle-income countries, we noted a significant increase of 22% (5–30) in incidence of haemorrhagic stroke and a 6% (–7 to 18) non-significant increase in the incidence of ischaemic stroke. Mortality rates for ischaemic stroke fell by 14% (9–19), DALYs lost by 17% (–11 to 21%), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 16% (–12 to 22). For haemorrhagic stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, mortality rates reduced by 23% (–18 to 25%), DALYs lost by 25% (–21 to 28), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 36% (–34 to 28). Interpretation Although age-standardised mortality rates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke have decreased in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have these stroke types annually, and the number with related deaths and DALYs lost, is increasing, with most of the burden in low-income and middle-income countries. Further study is needed in these countries to identify which subgroups of the population are at greatest risk and who could be targeted for preventive efforts. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background Breast and cervical cancer are important causes of mortality in women aged ≥15 years. We undertook annual age-specific assessments of breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries. ...Methods We systematically collected cancer registry data on mortality and incidence, vital registration, and verbal autopsy data for the period 1980–2010. We modelled the mortality-to-incidence (MI) ratio using a hierarchical model. Vital registration and verbal autopsy were supplemented with incidence multiplied by the MI ratio to yield a comprehensive database of mortality rates. We used Gaussian process regression to develop estimates of mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Estimates of incidence with uncertainty were also generated with mortality and MI ratios. Findings Global breast cancer incidence increased from 641 000 (95% uncertainty intervals 610 000–750 000) cases in 1980 to 1 643 000 (1 421 000–1 782 000) cases in 2010, an annual rate of increase of 3·1%. Global cervical cancer incidence increased from 378 000 (256 000–489 000) cases per year in 1980 to 454 000 (318 000–620 000) cases per year in 2010—a 0·6% annual rate of increase. Breast cancer killed 425 000 (359 000–453 000) women in 2010, of whom 68 000 (62 000–74 000) were aged 15–49 years in developing countries. Cervical cancer death rates have been decreasing but the disease still killed 200 000 (139 000–276 000) women in 2010, of whom 46 000 (33 000–64 000) were aged 15–49 years in developing countries. We recorded pronounced variation in the trend in breast cancer mortality across regions and countries. Interpretation More policy attention is needed to strengthen established health-system responses to reduce breast and cervical cancer, especially in developing countries. Funding Susan G Komen for the Cure and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends ...in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts. Methods We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model. Findings Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010. Interpretation Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
There is a global commitment to reduce premature cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) 25% by 2025. CVD mortality rates have declined dramatically over the past 2 decades, yet the number of life years lost ...to premature CVD deaths is increasing in low- and middle-income regions. Ischemic heart disease and stroke remain the leading causes of premature death in the world; however, there is wide regional variation in these patterns. Some regions, led by Central Asia, face particularly high rates of premature death from ischemic heart disease. Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia suffer disproportionately from death from stroke. The purpose of the present report is to (1) describe global trends and regional variation in premature mortality attributable to CVD, (2) review past and current approaches to the measurement of these trends, and (3) describe the limitations of existing models of epidemiological transitions for explaining the observed distribution and trends of CVD mortality. We describe extensive variation both between and within regions even while CVD remains a dominant cause of death. Policies and health interventions will need to be tailored and scaled for a broad range of local conditions to achieve global goals for the improvement of cardiovascular health.
Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount ...importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level.
We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval UI 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (–3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4).
China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system.
China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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