Arguments from non-causal analogy form a distinctive class of analogical arguments in science not recognized in authoritative classifications by, e.g., Hesse (
1963
) and Bartha (
2009
). In this ...paper, I illustrate this novel class of scientific analogies by means of historical examples from physics, biology and economics, at the same time emphasizing their broader significance for contemporary debates in epistemology.
Questo articolo presenta una recente esperienza didattica rivolta a studenti delle scuole secondarie di primo e secondo grado italiane tramite la costruzione di una escape room virtuale. Tale ...esperienza ha coinvolto oltre 50 scuole e 1500 studenti nell’occasione del Pi Day 2023, la Giornata Internazionale della Matematica. L’articolo si concentra sull’idea progettuale dei problemi matematici presentati e sulle modalità di realizzazione di un contesto virtuale che riproduca fedelmente l’esperienza di gioco escape room.
This article provides an epistemological assessment of climate analogue methods, with specific reference to the use of spatial analogues in the study of the future climate of target locations. Our ...contention is that, due to formal and conceptual inadequacies of geometrical dissimilarity metrics and the loss of relevant information, especially when reasoning from the physical to the socio-economical level, purported inferences from climate analogues of the spatial kind we consider here prove limited in a number of ways. Indeed, we formulate five outstanding problems concerning the search for best analogues, which we call the problem of non-uniqueness of the source, problem of non-uniqueness of the target, problem of average, problem of non-causal correlations and problem of inferred properties, respectively. In the face of such problems, we then offer two positive recommendations for a fruitful application of this methodology to the assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies of climate change, especially in the context of what we may prosaically dub “twin cities”. Arguably, such recommendations help decision-makers constrain the set of plausible climate analogues by integrating local knowledge relevant to the locations of interest.
Postprandial hyperglycemia may be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We compared the effects of two insulin secretagogues, repaglinide and glyburide, known to have different efficacy on ...postprandial hyperglycemia, on carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and markers of systemic vascular inflammation in type 2 diabetic patients.
We performed a randomized, single-blind trial on 175 drug-naive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (93 men and 82 women), 35 to 70 years of age, selected from a population of 401 patients who participated in an epidemiological analysis assessing the relation of postprandial hyperglycemia to surrogate measures of atherosclerosis. Eighty-eight patients were randomly assigned to receive repaglinide and 87 patients to glyburide, with a titration period of 6 to 8 weeks for optimization of drug dosage and a subsequent 12-month treatment period. The effects of repaglinide (1.5 to 12 mg/d) and glyburide (5 to 20 mg/d) on CIMT were compared by using blinded, serial assessments of the far wall. After 12 months, postprandial glucose peak was 148+/-28 mg/dL in the repaglinide group and 180+/-32 mg/dL in the glyburide group (P<0.01). HbA(1c) showed a similar decrease in both groups (-0.9%). CIMT regression, defined as a decrease of >0.020 mm, was observed in 52% of diabetics receiving repaglinide and in 18% of those receiving glyburide (P<0.01). Interleukin-6 (P=0.04) and C-reactive protein (P=0.02) decreased more in the repaglinide group than in the glyburide group. The reduction in CIMT was associated with changes in postprandial but not fasting hyperglycemia.
Reduction of postprandial hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetic patients is associated with CIMT regression.
Visceral fat is a key regulator site for the process of inflammation, and atherosclerotic lesions are essentially an inflammatory response.
Fifty-six healthy premenopausal obese women (age range 25 ...to 44 years, body mass index 37.2+/-2.2, waist to hip ratio range 0.78 to 0.92) and 40 age-matched normal weight women were studied. Compared with nonobese women, obese women had increased basal concentrations of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha, P<0.01), interleukin-6 (IL-6, P<0.01), P-selectin (P<0.01), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1, P<0.02), and vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1, P<0.05). Vascular responses to L-arginine (3 g IV), the natural precursor of nitric oxide, were impaired in obese women: reductions in mean blood pressure (P<0.02), platelet aggregation to adenosine diphosphate (P<0.05), and blood viscosity (P<0.05) were significantly lower as compared with those in the nonobese group. Concentrations of TNF-alpha and IL-6 were related (P<0.01) to visceral obesity, as well as to adhesin levels and responses to L-arginine. After 1 year of a multidisciplinary program of weight reduction (diet, exercise, behavioral counseling), all obese women lost at least 10% of their original weight (9.8+/-1.5 kg, range 7.5 to 13 kg). Compared with baseline, sustained weight loss was associated with reduction of cytokine (P<0.01) and adhesin (P<0.02) concentrations and with improvement of vascular responses to L-arginine.
In obese women, endothelial activation correlates with visceral body fat, possibly through inappropriate secretion of cytokines. Weight loss represents a safe method for downregulating the inflammatory state and ameliorating endothelial dysfunction in obese women.
Abstract In this work, we systematically analyse the population projections used in the emissions scenario ensembles reviewed by the Working Group III in the latest three reports of the ...Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We show that emissions scenarios span smaller demographic uncertainties than alternative estimates both for the world and for critical regions, such as South-East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and China. Furthermore, the range of demographic projections has consistently shrunk over subsequent reports, exposing a problematic convergence towards a single socio-economic pathway: the “middle path” or SSP2. We argue that the undersampling of population uncertainties limits the range of future emission trajectories and has implications for climate transition scenarios. Emissions scenarios with a wider set of assumptions about future population should be submitted to the IPCC. The methods utilised in this study inform the development of independent audit methods for the assessment of relevant uncertainty sources in IPCC databases.
Confirmation by analogy Nappo, Francesco
Synthese,
02/2022, Letnik:
200, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This paper proposes a framework for representing in Bayesian terms the idea that analogical arguments of various degrees of strength may provide inductive support to yet untested scientific ...hypotheses. On this account, contextual information plays a crucial role in determining whether, and to what extent, a given similarity or dissimilarity between source and target may confirm an empirical hypothesis over a rival one. In addition to showing confirmation by analogy compatible with the adoption of a Bayesian standpoint, the proposal outlined in this paper reveals a close agreement between the fulfillment of Hesse’s (Models and analogies in science, University of Notre Dame Press, 1963) criteria for analogical arguments capable of inductive support and the attribution of confirmatory power by the lights of Bayesian confirmation theory. In this sense, the Bayesian representation not only enriches a framework, Hesse’s, of enduring relevance for understanding scientific activity, but may offer something akin to a proof of concept of it.
This paper defends the thesis of
learning from non
-
causal models
: viz. that the study of some model can prompt justified changes in one’s confidence in empirical hypotheses about a real-world ...target in the absence of any known or predicted similarity between model and target with regards to their
causal
features. Recognizing that we can learn from non-causal models matters not only to our understanding of past scientific achievements, but also to contemporary debates in the philosophy of science. At one end of the philosophical spectrum, my thesis undermines the views of those who, like Cartwright (Erkenntnis 70:45–58, 2009), follow Hesse (
Models and Analogies in Science
, Notre Dame, University of Notre Dame Press, 1963) in restricting the possibility of learning from models to only those situations where a model identifies some causal factors present in the target. At the other end of the spectrum, my thesis also helps undermine some extremely permissive positions, e.g., Grüne-Yanoff’s (Erkenntnis 70(1):81–99, 2009, Philos Sci 80(5): 850–861, 2013) claim that learning from a model is possible even in the absence of any similarity
at all
between model and target. The thesis that we can learn from non-causal models offers a cautious middle ground between these two extremes.
Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may be complicated by life-threatening interstitial pneumonia. SARS-CoV-2 infection may ...also damage several tissues and/or organs beyond the lungs, including the liver. However, controversy still exists as to whether SARS-CoV-2-induced liver alterations can have an impact on the outcome of COVID-19. The aim of this study was therefore to assess whether SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with liver abnormalities at the time of hospital referral had a worse outcome with respect to patients with no liver biochemistry alterations. To this end, the medical records of 123 patients admitted to our COVID center between the end of 2020 and spring 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were divided into two groups: those with normal liver biochemistries (group 1, 77 patients) and those with altered liver function tests (group 2, 46 patients). Serum levels of aminotransferases (AST and ALT) and bile duct cell injury markers (γ-GT and ALP) were used to dichotomize patients. A higher percentage of patients with liver enzyme alterations were found to develop COVID-19 pneumonia with respect to group 1 patients (74% vs. 65%); moreover, they needed more days of respiratory support and, more importantly, more intensive administration of supplemental oxygen. A statistically significant correlation was also found between aminotransferase levels and duration of respiratory support. The mortality rate was not superior in group 2 vs. group 1 patients. In conclusion, liver abnormalities on admission predisposed COVID-19 patients to development of more severe interstitial pneumonia, because of a longer requirement for supplemental oxygen and a more intensive respiratory support, indicative of a worse disease evolution in these patients.
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