Psychology's Renaissance Nelson, Leif D; Simmons, Joseph; Simonsohn, Uri
Annual review of psychology,
01/2018, Letnik:
69, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
In 2010-2012, a few largely coincidental events led experimental psychologists to realize that their approach to collecting, analyzing, and reporting data made it too easy to publish false-positive ...findings. This sparked a period of methodological reflection that we review here and call Psychology's Renaissance
.
We begin by describing how psychologists' concerns with publication bias shifted from worrying about file-drawered studies to worrying about
p
-hacked analyses. We then review the methodological changes that psychologists have proposed and, in some cases, embraced. In describing how the renaissance has unfolded, we attempt to describe different points of view fairly but not neutrally, so as to identify the most promising paths forward. In so doing, we champion disclosure and preregistration, express skepticism about most statistical solutions to publication bias, take positions on the analysis and interpretation of replication failures, and contend that meta-analytical thinking
increases
the prevalence of false positives. Our general thesis is that the scientific practices of experimental psychologists have improved dramatically.
Terrestrial ecosystems currently offset one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because of a slight imbalance between global terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration. ...Understanding what controls these two biological fluxes is therefore crucial to predicting climate change. Yet there is no way of directly measuring the photosynthesis or daytime respiration of a whole ecosystem of interacting organisms; instead, these fluxes are generally inferred from measurements of net ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE), in a way that is based on assumed ecosystem-scale responses to the environment. The consequent view of temperate deciduous forests (an important CO2 sink) is that, first, ecosystem respiration is greater during the day than at night; and second, ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency peaks after leaf expansion in spring and then declines, presumably because of leaf ageing or water stress. This view has underlain the development of terrestrial biosphere models used in climate prediction and of remote sensing indices of global biosphere productivity. Here, we use new isotopic instrumentation to determine ecosystem photosynthesis and daytime respiration in a temperate deciduous forest over a three-year period. We find that ecosystem respiration is lower during the day than at night-the first robust evidence of the inhibition of leaf respiration by light at the ecosystem scale. Because they do not capture this effect, standard approaches overestimate ecosystem photosynthesis and daytime respiration in the first half of the growing season at our site, and inaccurately portray ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency. These findings revise our understanding of forest-atmosphere carbon exchange, and provide a basis for investigating how leaf-level physiological dynamics manifest at the canopy scale in other ecosystems.
Your guide to the design and construction of foundations on expansive soils Foundation Engineering for Expansive Soils fills a significant gap in the current literature by presenting coverage of the ...design and construction of foundations for expansive soils. Written by an expert author team with nearly 70 years of combined industry experience, this important new work is the only modern guide to the subject, describing proven methods for identifying and analyzing expansive soils and developing foundation designs appropriate for specific locations. Expansive soils are found worldwide and are the leading cause of damage to structural roads. The primary problem that arises with regard to expansive soils is that deformations are significantly greater than in non-expansive soils and the size and direction of the deformations are difficult to predict. Now, Foundation Engineering for Expansive Soils gives engineers and contractors coverage of this subject from a design perspective, rather than a theoretical one. Plus, they'll have access to case studies covering the design and construction of foundations on expansive salts from both commercial and residential projects. * Provides a succinct introduction to the basics of expansive soils and their threats * Includes information on both shallow and deep foundation design * Profiles soil remediation techniques, backed-up with numerous case studies * Covers the most commonly used laboratory tests and site investigation techniques used for establishing the physical properties of expansive soils If you're a practicing civil engineer, geotechnical engineer or contractor, geologist, structural engineer, or an upper-level undergraduate or graduate student of one of these disciplines, Foundation Engineering for Expansive Soils is a must-have addition to your library of resources.
The coronavirus coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has introduced extraordinary life changes and stress, particularly in adolescents and young adults. Initial reports suggest that ...depression and anxiety are elevated during COVID-19, but no prior study has explored changes at the
-person level. The current study explored changes in depression and anxiety symptoms from before the pandemic to soon after it first peaked in Spring 2020 in a sample of adolescents and young adults (
= 451) living in Long Island, New York, an early epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Depression (Children's Depression Inventory) and anxiety symptoms (Screen for Child Anxiety Related Symptoms) were assessed between December 2014 and July 2019, and, along with COVID-19 experiences, symptoms were re-assessed between March 27th and May 15th, 2020.
Across participants and independent of age, there were increased generalized anxiety and social anxiety symptoms. In females, there were also increased depression and panic/somatic symptoms. Multivariable linear regression indicated that greater COVID-19 school concerns were uniquely associated with increased depression symptoms. Greater COVID-19 home confinement concerns were uniquely associated with increased generalized anxiety symptoms, and decreased social anxiety symptoms, respectively.
Adolescents and young adults at an early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. experienced increased depression and anxiety symptoms, particularly amongst females. School and home confinement concerns related to the pandemic were independently associated with changes in symptoms. Overall, this report suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic is having multifarious adverse effects on the mental health of youth.
•We disaggregate adaptive capacity into specific and generic elements.•Our heuristic evaluates the interaction of generic and specific adaptive capacities.•Empirical cases show potential tradeoffs ...among capacities across decision levels.•Institutions and policy mediate tradeoffs and may lead to maladaptive outcomes.•Evaluation of distinct capacities can improve development and adaptation synergies.
There are two forms of capacity to adapt to global change: those associated with fundamental human development goals (generic capacity), and those necessary for managing and reducing specific climatic threats (specific). We argue that these two domains of capacity must be addressed explicitly, simultaneously and iteratively if climate change adaptation and sustainable development goals are to be attained. We propose a simple heuristic to understand the four main ways these two capacities interact, leading to more or less desirable outcomes. Drawing from three case studies of agricultural adaptation to climatic risk (Phoenix, AZ; Northeast Brazil; Chiapas, Mexico) we argue that the institutional context of adaptation can implicitly or explicitly undermine one form of capacity with repercussions for the development of the other. A better and more strategic balance of generic and specific capacities is needed if the promised synergies between sustainable development and adaptation are to be achieved.
Menopause Nelson, Heidi D, Dr
The Lancet (British edition),
03/2008, Letnik:
371, Številka:
9614
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Summary Menopause is the time of life when menstrual cycles cease, and is caused by reduced secretion of the ovarian hormones oestrogen and progesterone. Although menopause is a normal event for ...women, individual experiences vary, and some women seek medical advice for the management of symptoms. Many symptoms have been attributed to menopause, but only vasomotor dysfunction and vaginal dryness are consistently associated with this time of life in epidemiological studies. Other common symptoms such as mood changes, sleep disturbances, urinary incontinence, cognitive changes, somatic complaints, sexual dysfunction, and reduced quality of life may be secondary to other symptoms, or related to other causes. Trials of therapies for vasomotor dysfunction have shown improvements with oestrogen, gabapentin, paroxetine, and clonidine, but little or no benefit with other agents; adverse effects of these treatments must also be considered. Many questions about menopausal transition and its effects on health have not been adequately addressed.
The Internet is an important source of health information. Thus, the frequency of internet searches may provide information regarding infectious disease activity. As an example, we examine the ...relationship between searches for influenza and actual influenza occurrence. Using search queries from http://search.yahoo.com, between March 2004 and May 2008, we counted daily unique queries, originating in the U.S. and containing influenza-related search terms. Counts were divided by the total number of searches, and the resulting daily fraction of searches was averaged over the week. We estimated linear models, using searches with one- to ten-week lead times as explanatory variables, to predict the percentage of positive influenza cultures and also deaths due to pneumonia and influenza in the U.S. Using the frequency of searches, our models predicted an increase in positive influenza cultures 1–3 weeks in advance (p < 0.0001) and similar models predicted an increase in mortality from pneumonia and influenza up to five weeks in advance (p < 0.0001). Search-term surveillance may provide an additional tool for disease surveillance.
Pre‐registration: Why and How Simmons, Joseph; Nelson, Leif; Simonsohn, Uri
Journal of consumer psychology,
January 2021, 2021-01-00, Letnik:
31, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
In this article, we (1) discuss the reasons why pre‐registration is a good idea, both for the field and individual researchers, (2) respond to arguments against pre‐registration, (3) describe how to ...best write and review a pre‐registration, and (4) comment on pre‐registration’s rapidly accelerating popularity. Along the way, we describe the (big) problem that pre‐registration can solve (i.e., false positives caused by p‐hacking), while also offering viable solutions to the problems that pre‐registration cannot solve (e.g., hidden confounds or fraud). Pre‐registration does not guarantee that every published finding will be true, but without it you can safely bet that many more will be false. It is time for our field to embrace pre‐registration, while taking steps to ensure that it is done right.
This article is part of a Research Dialogue:Krishna (2021): https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1211Pham & Oh (2021): https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1209Simmons et al. (2021): https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1207Pham & Oh (2021): https://doi.org/10.1002/jcpy.1213
Machine learning in the string landscape Carifio, Jonathan; Halverson, James; Krioukov, Dmitri ...
The journal of high energy physics,
09/2017, Letnik:
2017, Številka:
9
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
A
bstract
We utilize machine learning to study the string landscape. Deep data dives and conjecture generation are proposed as useful frameworks for utilizing machine learning in the landscape, and ...examples of each are presented. A decision tree accurately predicts the number of weak Fano toric threefolds arising from reflexive polytopes, each of which determines a smooth F-theory compactification, and linear regression generates a previously proven conjecture for the gauge group rank in an ensemble of
4
3
×
2.96
×
10
755
F-theory compactifications. Logistic regression generates a new conjecture for when
E
6
arises in the large ensemble of F-theory compactifications, which is then rigorously proven. This result may be relevant for the appearance of visible sectors in the ensemble. Through conjecture generation, machine learning is useful not only for numerics, but also for rigorous results.
City transport systems often struggle to cope with high volumes of traffic and become congested, despite the use of various traffic management strategies. The concentration of traffic around city ...centres results in pollution and poor urban air quality, although the increasing popularity of electric vehicles is helping ameliorate these effects. One reason for the growing momentum behind electric vehicles is the emergence of mobility operators such as car-sharing companies, who target users wishing to rent out vehicles on a short-term basis. There is currently rapid growth in one-way car-sharing, in which the vehicle can be dropped off at a different location to the pickup point. Crucially, one-way car-sharing gives the opportunity for travellers to utilise car-sharing in conjunction with other modes, such as public transport modes, for their journey provided the requisite intermodal connections are present. This paper looks at how one-way electric vehicle car-sharing systems have the potential to become important components of future city transport systems. The future role of shared autonomous vehicles is also considered.
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