We conducted an extended follow-up and spatial analysis of the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) cohort in order to further examine associations between long-term ...exposure to particulate air pollution and mortality in large U.S. cities. The current study sought to clarify outstanding scientific issues that arose from our earlier HEI-sponsored Reanalysis of the original ACS study data (the Particle Epidemiology Reanalysis Project). Specifically, we examined (1) how ecologic covariates at the community and neighborhood levels might confound and modify the air pollution-mortality association; (2) how spatial autocorrelation and multiple levels of data (e.g., individual and neighborhood) can be taken into account within the random effects Cox model; (3) how using land-use regression to refine measurements of air pollution exposure to the within-city (or intra-urban) scale might affect the size and significance of health effects in the Los Angeles and New York City regions; and (4) what exposure time windows may be most critical to the air pollution-mortality association. The 18 years of follow-up (extended from 7 years in the original study Pope et al. 1995) included vital status data for the CPS-II cohort (approximately 1.2 million participants) with multiple cause-of-death codes through December 31, 2000 and more recent exposure data from air pollution monitoring sites for the metropolitan areas. In the Nationwide Analysis, the influence of ecologic covariate data (such as education attainment, housing characteristics, and level of income; data obtained from the 1980 U.S. Census; see Ecologic Covariates sidebar on page 14) on the air pollution-mortality association were examined at the Zip Code area (ZCA) scale, the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) scale, and by the difference between each ZCA value and the MSA value (DIFF). In contrast to previous analyses that did not directly include ecologic covariates at the ZCA scale, risk estimates increased when ecologic covariates were included at all scales. The ecologic covariates exerted their greatest effect on mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD), which was also the health outcome most strongly related with exposure to PM2.5 (particles 2.5 microm or smaller in aerodynamic diameter), sulfate (SO4(2-)), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and the only outcome significantly associated with exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2). When ecologic covariates were simultaneously included at both the MSA and DIFF levels, the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality from IHD associated with PM2.5 exposure (average concentration for 1999-2000) increased by 7.5% and that associated with SO4(2-) exposure (average concentration for 1990) increased by 12.8%. The two covariates found to exert the greatest confounding influence on the PM2.5-mortality association were the percentage of the population with a grade 12 education and the median household income. Also in the Nationwide Analysis, complex spatial patterns in the CPS-II data were explored with an extended random effects Cox model (see Glossary of Statistical Terms at end of report) that is capable of clustering up to two geographic levels of data. Using this model tended to increase the HR estimate for exposure to air pollution and also to inflate the uncertainty in the estimates. Including ecologic covariates decreased the variance of the results at both the MSA and ZCA scales; the largest decrease was in residual variation based on models in which the MSA and DIFF levels of data were included together, which suggests that partitioning the ecologic covariates into between-MSA and within-MSA values more completely captures the sources of variation in the relationship between air pollution, ecologic covariates, and mortality. Intra-Urban Analyses were conducted for the New York City and Los Angeles regions. The results of the Los Angeles spatial analysis, where we found high exposure contrasts within the Los Angeles region, showed that air pollution-mortality risks were nearly 3 times greater than those reported from earlier analyses. This suggests that chronic health effects associated with intra-urban gradients in exposure to PM2.5 may be even larger between ZCAs within an MSA than the associations between MSAs that have been previously reported. However, in the New York City spatial analysis, where we found very little exposure contrast between ZCAs within the New York region, mortality from all causes, cardiopulmonary disease (CPD), and lung cancer was not elevated. A positive association was seen for PM2.5 exposure and IHD, which provides evidence of a specific association with a cause of death that has high biologic plausibility. These results were robust when analyses controlled (1) the 44 individual-level covariates (from the ACS enrollment questionnaire in 1982; see 44 Individual-Level Covariates sidebar on page 22) and (2) spatial clustering using the random effects Cox model. Effects were mildly lower when unemployment at the ZCA scale was included. To examine whether there is a critical exposure time window that is primarily responsible for the increased mortality associated with ambient air pollution, we constructed individual time-dependent exposure profiles for particulate and gaseous air pollutants (PM2.5 and SO2) for a subset of the ACS CPS-II participants for whom residence histories were available. The relevance of the three exposure time windows we considered was gauged using the magnitude of the relative risk (HR) of mortality as well as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), which measures the goodness of fit of the model to the data. For PM2.5, no one exposure time window stood out as demonstrating the greatest HR; nor was there any clear pattern of a trend in HR going from recent to more distant windows or vice versa. Differences in AIC values among the three exposure time windows were also small. The HRs for mortality associated with exposure to SO2 were highest in the most recent time window (1 to 5 years), although none of these HRs were significantly elevated. Identifying critical exposure time windows remains a challenge that warrants further work with other relevant data sets. This study provides additional support toward developing cost-effective air quality management policies and strategies. The epidemiologic results reported here are consistent with those from other population-based studies, which collectively have strongly supported the hypothesis that long-term exposure to PM2.5 increases mortality in the general population. Future research using the extended Cox-Poisson random effects methods, advanced geostatistical modeling techniques, and newer exposure assessment techniques will provide additional insight.
The American Thyroid Association (ATA) management guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) are highly influential practice recommendations. The latest ...revision appeared in 2015 ("ATA 2015"). These guidelines were developed predominantly by North American experts. European experts frequently have different perspectives, given epidemiological, technological/methodological, practice organization, and medicolegal differences between the respective regions.
Divergent viewpoints were the focus of an invited symposium organized by the European Association of Nuclear Medicine involving 17 European thyroidologists, four ATA Guidelines Taskforce members, and an audience of 200 international experts. The group discussed the preoperative assessment of thyroid nodules, surgery and the role of pathology, radioiodine (RAI) therapy (RAIT), the assessment of initial therapy and dynamic risk stratification, and the treatment of persistent disease, recurrences, and advanced thyroid cancer. The dialogue resulted in this position paper contrasting European and ATA 2015 perspectives on key issues. One difference pertains to the permissiveness of ATA 2015 regarding lobectomy for primary tumors ≤4 cm. European panelists cited preclusion of RAIT, potential need for completion thyroidectomy, frequent inability to avoid chronic thyroid hormone replacement, and limitations of supportive evidence as arguments against widely applying lobectomy. Significant divergence involved ATA 2015's guidance regarding RAIT. European panelists favored wider use of postoperative RAIT than does ATA 2015. Rationales included the modality's association with favorable patient outcomes and generally limited toxicity, and lack of high-quality evidence supporting withholding RAIT. Additionally, European panelists favored recombinant human thyrotropin (rhTSH) in more settings than does ATA 2015, citing avoidance of hypothyroid morbidity and quality-of-life impairment, without apparent sacrifice in oncologic outcomes. Based on clinical evidence plus theoretical advantages, European experts advocated dosimetric versus fixed-activity RAIT approaches for advanced DTC. European panelists noted that the ATA 2015 risk-stratification system requires information sometimes unavailable in everyday practice. ATA 2015 recommendations regarding RAI-refractory DTC should consider potential palliative benefits of RAIT in patients who also have RAI-susceptible lesions.
European panelists suggested modifications to approximately one-third of ATA 2015 recommendations. Varying European and ATA 2015 perspectives can stimulate analysis and discussion of the literature and performance of primary research to resolve discrepant recommendations and potentially improve patient outcomes.
Purpose
The multiple climate tipping points potential (MCTP) is a novel metric in life-cycle assessment (LCA). It addresses the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions to disturb those processes in ...the Earth system, which could pass a tipping point and thereby trigger large, abrupt and potentially irreversible changes. The MCTP, however, does not represent ecosystems damage. Here, we further develop this midpoint metric by linking it to losses of terrestrial species biodiversity at either local or global scales.
Method
A mathematical framework was developed to translate midpoint impacts to temperature increase, first, and then to potential loss of species resulting from the temperature increase, using available data on the potentially disappeared fraction of species due to a unit change in global average temperature.
Results and discussion
The resulting damage MCTP expresses the impacts on ecosystems quality in terms of potential loss of terrestrial species resulting from the contribution of GHG emissions to cross climatic tipping points. The MCTP values range from 2.3·10
–17
to 1.1·10
–15
PDF (potentially disappeared fraction of species) for the global scale and from 2.7·10
–17
to 1.1·10
–15
PDF per 1 kg of CO
2
emitted for the local scale. They are time-dependent, and the largest values are found for emissions occurring between 2030 and 2045, generally declining for emissions occurring toward the end of the century.
Conclusions
The developed metric complements existing damage-level metrics used in LCA, and its application is expected to be especially relevant for products where time-differentiation of emissions is possible. To enable direct comparisons between our damage MCTP and the damage caused by other environmental impacts or other climate-related impact categories, further efforts are needed to harmonize MCTP units with those of the compared damage metrics.
The relationship between size and performance of collaborative human small groups has been studied broadly across management, psychology, economics, sociology, and engineering disciplines. However, ...empirical research findings on this question remain equivocal. Many of the earlier studies centered on empirical human-subject experiments, which inevitably involved many confounding factors. To obtain more theory-driven mechanistic explanations of the linkage between group size and performance, we developed an agent-based simulation model that describes the complex process of collaborative group decision-making on problem-solving tasks. To find better solutions to a problem with given complexity, these agents repeatedly explore and share solution candidates, evaluate and respond to the solutions proposed by others, and update their understanding of the problem by conducting individual local search and incorporating others’ proposals. Our results showed that under a condition of ineffective information sharing, group size was negatively related to group performance at the beginning of discussion across each level of problem complexity (i.e., low, medium, and high). However, in the long run, larger groups outperformed smaller groups for the problem with medium complexity and equally well for the problem with low complexity because larger groups developed higher solution diversity. For the problem with high complexity, the higher solution diversity led to more disagreements which in turn hindered larger groups’ collaborative problem-solving ability. Our results also suggested that, in small collaborative team settings, effective information sharing can significantly improve group performance for groups of any size, especially for larger groups. This model provides a unified, mechanistic explanation of the conflicting observations reported in the existing empirical literature.
An increasing number of reports suggest early life exposures result in adverse effects in offspring who were never directly exposed; this phenomenon is termed “transgenerational inheritance.” Given ...concern for public health implications for potential effects of exposures transmitted to subsequent generations, it is critical to determine how widespread and robust this phenomenon is and to identify the range of exposures and possible outcomes.
This scoping report examines the evidence for transgenerational inheritance associated with exposure to a wide range of stressors in humans and animals to identify areas of consistency, uncertainty, data gaps, and to evaluate general risk of bias issues for the transgenerational study design.
A protocol was developed to collect and categorize the literature into a systematic evidence map for transgenerational inheritance by health effects, exposures, and evidence streams following the Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach for conducting literature-based health assessments.
A PubMed search yielded 63,758 unique records from which 257 relevant studies were identified and categorized into a systematic evidence map by evidence streams (46 human and 211 animal), broad health effect categories, and exposures. Data extracted from the individual studies are available in the Health Assessment Workspace Collaborative (HAWC) program. There are relatively few bodies of evidence where multiple studies evaluated the same exposure and the same or similar outcomes. Studies evaluated for risk of bias generally had multiple issues in design or conduct.
The evidence mapping illustrated that risk of bias, few studies, and heterogeneity in exposures and endpoints examined present serious limitations to available bodies of evidence for assessing transgenerational effects. Targeted research is suggested to addressed inconsistencies and risk of bias issues identified, and thereby establish more robust bodies of evidence to critically assess transgenerational effects - particularly by adding data on exposure-outcome pairs where there is some evidence (i.e., reproductive, metabolic, and neurological effects).
•Transgenerational effects are reported in both humans and animals.•There are few bodies of evidence evaluating the same exposure and similar outcomes.•Risk of bias assessment identified issues in study design, conduct, and reporting.•Heterogeneity, bias limit bodies of evidence assessing transgenerational effects.•Target future data to address inconsistencies and risk of bias issues.
The variant surface antigens expressed on Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes are potentially important targets of immunity to malaria and are encoded, at least in part, by a family of var ...genes, about 60 of which are present within every parasite genome. Here we use semi-conserved regions within short var gene sequence "tags" to make direct comparisons of var gene expression in 12 clinical parasite isolates from Kenyan children. A total of 1,746 var clones were sequenced from genomic and cDNA and assigned to one of six sequence groups using specific sequence features. The results show the following. (1) The relative numbers of genomic clones falling in each of the sequence groups was similar between parasite isolates and corresponded well with the numbers of genes found in the genome of a single, fully sequenced parasite isolate. In contrast, the relative numbers of cDNA clones falling in each group varied considerably between isolates. (2) Expression of sequences belonging to a relatively conserved group was negatively associated with the repertoire of variant surface antigen antibodies carried by the infected child at the time of disease, whereas expression of sequences belonging to another group was associated with the parasite "rosetting" phenotype, a well established virulence determinant. Our results suggest that information on the state of the host-parasite relationship in vivo can be provided by measurements of the differential expression of different var groups, and need only be defined by short stretches of sequence data.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, ...concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting.
Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their ...importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBMB, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Malaria elimination strategies require surveillance of the parasite population for genetic changes that demand a public health response, such as new forms of drug resistance. Here we describe methods ...for the large-scale analysis of genetic variation in Plasmodium falciparum by deep sequencing of parasite DNA obtained from the blood of patients with malaria, either directly or after short-term culture. Analysis of 86,158 exonic single nucleotide polymorphisms that passed genotyping quality control in 227 samples from Africa, Asia and Oceania provides genome-wide estimates of allele frequency distribution, population structure and linkage disequilibrium. By comparing the genetic diversity of individual infections with that of the local parasite population, we derive a metric of within-host diversity that is related to the level of inbreeding in the population. An open-access web application has been established for the exploration of regional differences in allele frequency and of highly differentiated loci in the P. falciparum genome.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommended lowering their estimated tolerable daily intake (TDI) for bisphenol A (BPA) 20,000-fold to
. BPA is an extensively studied high production volume ...endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) associated with a vast array of diseases. Prior risk assessments of BPA by EFSA as well as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have relied on industry-funded studies conducted under good laboratory practice protocols (GLP) requiring guideline end points and detailed record keeping, while also claiming to examine (but rejecting) thousands of published findings by academic scientists. Guideline protocols initially formalized in the mid-twentieth century are still used by many regulatory agencies. EFSA used a 21st century approach in its reassessment of BPA and conducted a transparent, but time-limited, systematic review that included both guideline and academic research. The German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) opposed EFSA's revision of the TDI for BPA.
We identify the flaws in the assumptions that the German BfR, as well as the FDA, have used to justify maintaining the TDI for BPA at levels above what a vast amount of academic research shows to cause harm. We argue that regulatory agencies need to incorporate 21st century science into chemical hazard identifications using the CLARITY-BPA (Consortium Linking Academic and Regulatory Insights on BPA Toxicity) nonguideline academic studies in a collaborative government-academic program model.
We strongly endorse EFSA's revised TDI for BPA and support the European Commission's (EC) apparent acceptance of this updated BPA risk assessment. We discuss challenges to current chemical risk assessment assumptions about EDCs that need to be addressed by regulatory agencies to, in our opinion, become truly protective of public health. Addressing these challenges will hopefully result in BPA, and eventually other structurally similar bisphenols (called regrettable substitutions) for which there are known adverse effects, being eliminated from all food-related and many other uses in the EU and elsewhere. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13812.
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CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
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