Apple cultivation is one of the most important sources of livelihood in Indian side of the Himalayas. The present study focuses on the apple orchards of Himachal Pradesh, a state within the Himalayan ...Mountains, a major apple producers of India. In the study, it is found that the optimum apple growing conditions in the region have been consistently shifting and farmers are shifting their orchards to the higher altitudes. For example, orchards have shifted to 1500–2500 meters in the 2000s compared to the cultivated elevation of 1200–1500 meters during 1980s. As of 2014, apples are being cultivated at an elevation of more than 3500 meters, for example, the newly developed orchards of Leo village in upper Kinnaur and Keylong area of Lahul and Spiti districts. Chilling hours for different districts are calculated. The trend of temperature during the growth period, winter session and annual rainfall have been analysed using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test. Data catalogued from different time periods indicates that the northward shift (towards higher altitude) is due to changes in chilling hours, total annual rainfall and mean surface temperature during the apple growing season. The mean surface temperature in all the districts has increased by almost 0.5°C during last 2000–2014. These changes are directly related to global warming. While the changing climate is reducing the apple production in low altitudinal regions of the state, it is creating new opportunities for apple cultivation in higher altitudes as conditions are getting more favourable for apple growth in those higher regions. The associated socio-economic changes are posing new societal issues for the local farmers.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This article compares the performances of three fitting methods (SLmom, S1NCM, and S3NCM) to account for temporal characteristics of Annual Maximum Precipitations (AMPs) on daily and sub‐daily time ...scales using scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution at a local site. Based on simple scaling properties of AMPs, the temporal downscaling model (called Scaling‐GEV) with parameter estimation methods are used to estimate sub‐daily AMPs from observed daily data. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available from Dorval in Quebec (Canada) and Seoul (South Korea) for the period 1961–1990. Presence of simple scaling properties of AMPs for two stations has shown that it is feasible to use the temporal downscaling method for describing the linkage between AMPs of different time scales. Numerical and graphical analyses revealed that the Scaling‐GEV distribution by the Three‐Non central moments (NCM) method (S3NCM) provides the most accurate estimates compared to observed data amongst three fitting methods. In addition, this study suggested a modified bootstrap technique to determine confidence intervals (CIs) CIs of extreme rainfall series using the simple scaling properties of extreme rainfalls and only daily AMPs. Although the CIs were constructed by only daily AMPs and the simple scaling properties, the observed sub‐daily AMPs are generally within the 95% CI estimated.
Temporal downscaling methods using scaling‐invariance properties of annual maximum precipitations and the proposed confidence intervals method.
•An original procedure for selecting the best model for extreme rainfall distribution.•An identification of the best extreme rainfall distribution for Ontario region.•A performance comparison of ten ...different distributions for extreme rainfalls.•Three top distributions GNO, GEV, and PE3 were found using a large study dataset.•The GEV was recommended as the best distribution for Ontario extreme rainfalls.
Many probability distributions have been developed to model the annual maximum rainfall series (AMS). However, there is no general agreement as to which distribution should be used due to the lack of a suitable evaluation method. This paper presents hence a general procedure for assessing systematically the performance of ten commonly used probability distributions in rainfall frequency analyses based on their descriptive as well as predictive abilities. This assessment procedure relies on an extensive set of graphical and numerical performance criteria to identify the most suitable models that could provide the most accurate and most robust extreme rainfall estimates. The proposed systematic assessment approach has been shown to be more efficient and more robust than the traditional model selection method based on only limited goodness-of-fit criteria. To test the feasibility of the proposed procedure, an illustrative application was carried out using 5-min, 1-h, and 24-h annual maximum rainfall data from a network of 21 raingages located in the Ontario region in Canada. Results have indicated that the GEV, GNO, and PE3 models were the best models for describing the distribution of daily and sub-daily annual maximum rainfalls in this region. The GEV distribution, however, was preferred to the GNO and PE3 because it was based on a more solid theoretical basis for representing the distribution of extreme random variables.
AbstractIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations are essential for estimating extreme rainfalls for the design of various hydraulic structures. However, in current engineering practice, the ...construction of these relations represents a challenging and tedious task since it involves the uncertainty analysis of different probability models and the frequency analyses of a large amount of extreme rainfall data for different durations at a given site or over many different locations. In particular, the selection of the best probability model for extreme rainfalls is the most difficult decision since it requires two main challenging tasks: (1) a detailed evaluation of the descriptive and predictive abilities of each selected distribution as well as the analysis of its uncertainty and (2) a systematic comparison of the accuracy and robustness of all candidate models based on a number of graphical and numerical performance criteria. Hence, this paper proposes a decision-support tool, herein referred to as SMExRain, that can readily be used to identify, in an objective and systematic manner, the most suitable distributions for the accurate and robust estimation of design rainfalls. Therefore, SMExRain represents an efficient practical tool for establishing reliable IDF relations for a given site or for many sites of interest. The tool is based on the theoretical procedures developed by the authors and others. An illustrative application of SMExRain is presented using extreme data for the Ontario region (Canada) to demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed tool in engineering practice.
Summary
Azole‐resistant environmental Aspergillus fumigatus presents a threat to public health but the extent of this threat in Southeast Asia is poorly described. We conducted environmental ...surveillance in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam, collecting air and ground samples across key land‐use types, and determined antifungal susceptibilities of Aspergillus section Fumigati (ASF) isolates and azole concentrations in soils. Of 119 ASF isolates, 55% were resistant (or non‐wild type) to itraconazole, 65% to posaconazole and 50% to voriconazole. Azole resistance was more frequent in A. fumigatus sensu stricto isolates (95%) than other ASF species (32%). Resistant isolates and agricultural azole residues were overrepresented in samples from cultivated land. cyp51A gene sequence analysis showed 38/56 resistant A. fumigatus sensu stricto isolates carried known resistance mutations, with TR34/L98H most frequent (34/38).
Abstract
Background
An endotracheal tube cuff pressure between 20 and 30 cmH2O is recommended to prevent ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI). We aimed to evaluate whether continuous ...cuff pressure control (CPC) was associated with reduced VARI incidence compared with intermittent CPC.
Methods
We conducted a multicenter open-label randomized controlled trial in intensive care unit (ICU) patients within 24 hours of intubation in Vietnam. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either continuous CPC using an automated electronic device or intermittent CPC using a manually hand-held manometer. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of VARI, evaluated by an independent reviewer blinded to the CPC allocation.
Results
We randomized 600 patients; 597 received the intervention or control and were included in the intention to treat analysis. Compared with intermittent CPC, continuous CPC did not reduce the proportion of patients with at least one episode of VARI (74/296 25% vs 69/301 23%; odds ratio OR 1.13; 95% confidence interval CI .77–1.67. There were no significant differences between continuous and intermittent CPC concerning the proportion of microbiologically confirmed VARI (OR 1.40; 95% CI .94–2.10), the proportion of intubated days without antimicrobials (relative proportion RP 0.99; 95% CI .87–1.12), rate of ICU discharge (cause-specific hazard ratio HR 0.95; 95% CI .78–1.16), cost of ICU stay (difference in transformed mean DTM 0.02; 95% CI −.05 to .08, cost of ICU antimicrobials (DTM 0.02; 95% CI −.25 to .28), cost of hospital stay (DTM 0.02; 95% CI −.04 to .08), and ICU mortality risk (OR 0.96; 95% CI .67–1.38).
Conclusions
Maintaining CPC through an automated electronic device did not reduce VARI incidence.
Clinical Trial Registration
NCT02966392.
The results of this randomised controlled trial demonstrate that continuous endotracheal cuff pressure control using an electronic automated device does not reduce the occurrence of ventilator-associated respiratory infection (VARI) in intubated patients compared with intermittent control.
The rise in Plasmodium falciparum resistance to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in Vietnam justifies the need to evaluate alternative artemisinin-based combination therapies. Between July 2018 and ...October 2019, a single-arm trial of pyronaridine-artesunate (Pyramax, PA) was conducted in Dak Nong province, Vietnam. PA (3-day course) was administered to adults and children infected with P. falciparum. PA was well tolerated by the participants. The proportion of patients with Day 42 PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response was 95.2% (95% confidence interval CI, 82.3 to 98.8,
= 40/42) for treating falciparum malaria. The median parasite clearance half-life was 6.7 h (range, 2.6 to 11.9) and the median parasite clearance time was 72 h (range, 12 to 132) with 44.9% (22/49) of patients having positive blood films at 72 h. The two patients that recrudesced had comparable Day 7 blood pyronaridine concentrations (39.5 and 39.0 ng/ml) to the 40 patients who did not recrudesce (median 43.4 ng/ml, 95% CI, 35.1 to 54.9). Ring-stage and piperaquine survival assays revealed that of the 29 P. falciparum isolates collected from the patients before PA treatment, 22 (75.9%) had reduced susceptibility to artemisinins and 17 (58.6%) were resistant to piperaquine. Genotyping confirmed that 92.0% (46/50) of falciparum patients were infected with parasites bearing the
C580Y mutation associated with artemisinin resistance. Of these, 56.0% (28/50) of the isolates also had multiple copies of the
2/3 genes responsible for piperaquine resistance. Overall, PA was effective in treating P. falciparum in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. (This study has been registered at AustralianClinicalTrials.gov.au under trial ID ACTRN12618001429246.).
•Three quantile-based downscaling methods are systematically intercompared.•Performance of downscaling methods in producing observed quantiles can be divergent.•Downscaling methods with divergent ...functionality generate dissimilar future extremes.•Climate change can alter the current design storms under certain risk levels.•A risk-based approach is suggested to choose future design storms under uncertainty.
Local characteristics of extreme rainfall quantiles, manifested through Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, are key to infrastructure design. Due to climate change, rainfall extremes are subject to changes, it is, therefore, crucial to explore the potential impacts these changes will have on design storms. A new strain of methodologies, quantile-based downscaling approaches, have recently been proposed to exclusively downscale extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs). These approaches, however, have not been systematically intercompared and the uncertainties related to assigning future design storms are poorly understood. This study evaluates the functionality of three quantile-based downscaling methods during the historical and future periods in Montreal, Canada. Results show that the performance of quantile-based downscaling approaches in reproducing observed extreme quantiles can be divergent. At lower return periods, however, differences between the three schemes are not significant. Similar performances for reproducing historical rainfall extremes, however, does not necessarily imply similar future projections due to the different functionalities of the three approaches in mapping GCM projections into finer scales. Despite these uncertainties, the total projection range of future rainfall extremes are, in many cases, comparable to the confidence interval of the parametric probability distribution when fitted to the observed annual maximum rainfall series. A risk-based approach to accommodate this uncertainty in vulnerability assessments through evaluating potential alterations in historical rainfall extremes using an ensemble projection coming from multiple downscaling approaches is suggested. This allows for the selection of design storms based on the acceptable level of risk and given budgetary and operational restrictions.
Cryptococcal meningitis has high mortality. Flucytosine is a key treatment but is expensive and rarely available. The anticancer agent tamoxifen has synergistic anti-cryptococcal activity with ...amphotericin in vitro. It is off-patent, cheap, and widely available. We performed a trial to determine its therapeutic potential.
Open label randomized controlled trial. Participants received standard care - amphotericin combined with fluconazole for the first 2 weeks - or standard care plus tamoxifen 300 mg/day. The primary end point was Early Fungicidal Activity (EFA) - the rate of yeast clearance from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Trial registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03112031.
Fifty patients were enrolled (median age 34 years, 35 male). Tamoxifen had no effect on EFA (-0.48log10 colony-forming units/mL/CSF control arm versus -0.49 tamoxifen arm, difference -0.005log10CFU/ml/day, 95% CI: -0.16, 0.15, p=0.95). Tamoxifen caused QTc prolongation.
High-dose tamoxifen does not increase the clearance rate of
from CSF. Novel, affordable therapies are needed.
The trial was funded through the Wellcome Trust Asia Programme Vietnam Core Grant 106680 and a Wellcome Trust Intermediate Fellowship to JND grant number WT097147MA.
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•A stress amplification structure employing free-standing SiC sensing elements was utilised to enhance 3C-SiC/Si pressure sensor sensitivity to 0.276 mV/V/kPa.•Analytical and ...numerical methods show that the stress in the structure is amplified by more than 750% compared to a traditional structure.•The fabricated sensor had a non-linearity of 2.2% and was highly repeatable with a low hysteresis of 0.91%.•The dual 3C-SiC thin film on the sensor provides a strong chemical protective capability due to its chemical inertness.
SiC based pressure sensors show tremendous promise for harsh environment applications thanks to their excellent mechanical, electrical, thermal, and chemical properties. This paper presents the design, fabrication, and characterisation of a highly sensitive and robust 3C-SiC/Si pressure sensor. The sensor utilises a stress amplification structure consisting of four Si pillars built up from the 3C-SiC/Si membrane, supporting a series of released n-type 3C-SiC sensing elements. When pressure is applied to the diaphragm, the pillars act to locally concentrate and amplify strain in the 3C-SiC sensing elements, resulting in over 7 times higher stresses/strains in these sensing elements compared to a traditional structure. Additionally, the front side of the sensor is fully covered by a 3C-SiC thin film, which provides a strong chemical protective capability, allowing the sensor to operate in harsh chemically corrosive environments. The robust device utilises the full Wheatstone bridge to negate the effects of temperature. Experimental results show that the fabricated sensor is highly stable, repeatable, has a high sensitivity of 0.276 mV/V/kPa and a maximum non-linearity of 2.2 % in the 0–100 kPa region. The results indicate that this smart-structure pressure sensor is promising for applications that require highly precise pressure sensing in aggressively corrosive environments.
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