We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated ...characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.
The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato ...yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO
2
fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO
2
fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO
2
fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.
THE EWIEM NIMDIE SUMMER SCHOOL SERIES IN GHANA Tompkins, Adrian M.; Parker, Douglas J.; Danour, Sylvester ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
05/2012, Letnik:
93, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The experience of the first school demonstrated that slow (or nonexistent) Internet connections and disruptions to the local electrical power supply were facts of life that significantly impeded the ...learning process. Above all, the Ewiem Nimdie Summer School Series involves helping Africa help itself. ...institutes or individuals interested in contributing to future events should contact the corresponding author of this article.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
THE EWIEM NIMDIE SUMMER SCHOOL SERIES IN GHANA Tompkins, Adrian M.; Parker, Douglas J.; Danour, Sylvester ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
05/2012, Letnik:
93, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate ...methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects.
The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available.
The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components:
1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.
•14 criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk•Working with stakeholders to identify timing of risks is key to risk assessments.•Multiple methods needed to critically assess the use of climate model output•Increasing transparency and inter-comparability needed in risk assessments
Early warning of weather-related hazards enables farmers, policy makers and
aid agencies to mitigate their exposure to risk. We present a new operational
framework, Tropical Applications of ...Meteorology using SATellite data and
ground based measurements-AgricuLtural EaRly warning sysTem (TAMSAT-ALERT),
which aims to provide early warning for meteorological risk to agriculture.
TAMSAT-ALERT combines information on land-surface properties, seasonal
forecasts and historical weather to quantitatively assess the likelihood of
adverse weather-related outcomes, such as low yield. This article describes
the modular TAMSAT-ALERT framework and demonstrates its application to risk
assessment for low maize yield in northern Ghana (Tamale). The modular design
of TAMSAT-ALERT enables it to accommodate any impact or land-surface model
driven with meteorological data. The implementation described here uses the
well-established General Large Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops to provide
probabilistic assessments of the meteorological hazard for maize yield in
northern Ghana (Tamale) throughout the growing season. The results show that
climatic risk to yield is poorly constrained in the beginning of the season,
but as the season progresses, the uncertainty is rapidly reduced. Based on the
assessment for the period 2002–2011, we show that TAMSAT-ALERT can
estimate the meteorological risk on maize yield 6 to 8 weeks in advance
of harvest. The TAMSAT-ALERT methodology implicitly weights forecast and
observational inputs according to their relevance to the metric being
assessed. A secondary application of TAMSAT-ALERT is thus an evaluation of the
usefulness of meteorological forecast products for impact assessment. Here,
we show that in northern Ghana (Tamale), the tercile seasonal forecasts of
seasonal cumulative rainfall and mean temperature, which are routinely issued
to farmers, are of limited value because regional and seasonal temperature and
rainfall are poorly correlated with yield. This finding speaks to the
pressing need for meteorological forecast products that are tailored for
individual user applications.
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