A Bayesian approach, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, was applied to a newly developed large-scale crop model for paddy rice to optimize a new set of regional-specific parameters and ...quantify the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with model parameters. The developed large-scale model is process-based and up-scaled from a conventional field-scale model to meet the intended spatial-scale of the large-scale model to the typical grid size of high-resolution climate models. The domain of the large-scale model covers all of Japan, but the crop simulation is conducted for each local governmental area in Japan. The MCMC technique exhibits powerful capability to optimize multiple parameters in a nonlinear and fairly complex model. The application of the Bayesian approach is useful to quantify the uncertainty of model parameters in a comprehensive manner when researchers on crop modeling analyze the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with model parameters under given observations. A sensitivity analysis of the large-scale model was conducted with the obtained posterior distribution of parameters and warming conditions that have never been experienced before to demonstrate the change in the uncertainty of yield estimation associated with the uncertainty of parameters of the large-scale model. The uncertainty of yield estimation under warming conditions was larger than that obtained under climate conditions that have been experienced before. This raises a concern that the uncertainty of impact assessment on crop yield may increase if future climate projections are fed to crop models with parameters optimized under current climate conditions.
Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and ...adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($78 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.
Sore throat is a common side effect of general anaesthesia and is reported by between 30% and 70% of patients after tracheal intubation. The likelihood of a sore throat varies with the type, ...diameter, and cuff pressure of the endotracheal tube used. If intubation is essential, it may be helpful to give drugs prophylactically to alleviate postoperative sore throat. Local anaesthetics and steroids have been used for this purpose.
The objective of this review was to evaluate the effectiveness and any harms of topical and systematic lidocaine for the prevention of postoperative sore throat in adults undergoing endotracheal intubation as part of general anaesthesia.
We searched CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2007, Issue 3), MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2007), and EMBASE (1980 to June 2007). We also contacted manufacturers and researchers in the field.
We included randomized controlled trials of topical and systemic prophylactic lidocaine therapy versus control (using air or saline) that reported on the risk and severity of postoperative sore throat as an outcome.
Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information, such as the risk of adverse effects.
We included 1232 patients from 15 studies; 672 patients received topical or systemic lidocaine therapy and 560 patients were allocated to the control group. Both the topical and systemic lidocaine therapy significantly reduced the risk of postoperative sore throat (risk ratio (RR) 0.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41 to 0.82). To evaluate the severity of sore throat on a visual analogue scale (VAS), 219 patients received topical or systemic lidocaine therapy and 152 patients were allocated to the control groups. The severity of sore throat was reduced (mean difference (MD) -11.9; 95% CI -16.44 to -7.32), an effect that neared statistical significance. The adverse effects of lidocaine were not reported in these studies.
Our systematic review establishes the effectiveness of topical and systemic lidocaine for the prevention of postoperative sore throat resulting from intubation. The risk and severity of postoperative sore throat tended to be reduced. The effect size of lidocaine appeared to be affected by drug concentration and route of administration; management of cuff pressure during anaesthesia; the included population; and the type of outcome measured.
Epidural analgesia offers greater pain relief compared to systemic opioid-based medications, but its effect on morbidity and mortality is unclear.
To assess the benefits and harms of postoperative ...epidural analgesia in comparison with postoperative systemic opioid-based pain relief for adult patients who underwent elective abdominal aortic surgery.
We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials via OVID (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, Issue 3, 2004); OVID MEDLINE (1966 to July 2004); and EMBASE (1980 to June 2004). We assessed non-English language reports and contacted researchers in the field. We did not seek unpublished data.
We included all randomized controlled trials comparing postoperative epidural analgesia and postoperative systemic opioid-based analgesia for adult patients who underwent elective open abdominal aortic surgery.
Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information and data.
Thirteen studies involving 1224 patients met our inclusion criteria; 597 patients received epidural analgesia and 627 received systemic opioid analgesia. The epidural analgesia group showed significantly lower visual analogue scale for pain on movement (up to postoperative day three), regardless of the site of epidural catheter and epidural formulation. Postoperative duration of tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation was significantly shorter by about 20% in the epidural analgesia group. The overall incidence of cardiovascular complication; myocardial infarction; acute respiratory failure (defined as an extended need for mechanical ventilation); gastrointestinal complication; and renal insufficiency was significantly lower in the epidural analgesia group, especially in trials that used thoracic epidural analgesia.
Epidural analgesia provides better pain relief (especially during movement) for up to three postoperative days. It reduces the duration of postoperative tracheal intubation by roughly 20%. The occurrence of prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation, overall cardiac complication, myocardial infarction, gastric complication and renal complication was also reduced by epidural analgesia, especially thoracic. However, current evidence does not confirm the beneficial effect of epidural analgesia on postoperative mortality and other types of complications.
It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, ...which we call “interconnections of climate risks.” While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well‐being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change.
Plain Language Summary
The paper demonstrates in a most holistic manner how climate change can generate various risks and how they are actually interconnected. Based on a literature survey using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, we identified 91 climate risks and 253 causal relationships among them and graphically drew such interconnected risks. We found that changes in the climate system impact the natural and socioeconomic system, influencing ultimately human security, health, and well‐being. This indicates that climate change can trigger a cascade of impacts across sectors. Our findings point to the need to address the climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. The implications of our study go beyond science. Our study is useful to inform stakeholders of a broad yet fresh perspective of climate risks that have not been presented before.
Key Points
The paper developed a methodology for visualizing how climate change can generate various risks and how they can be interconnected
We identified 91 climate risks and 253 causal relationships among them based on a literature survey and graphically presented the interconnected risks
We found that changes in the climate system impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately influencing human security, health, and well‐being
Projecting the impacts of climate change includes various uncertainties from physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic processes. Providing a more comprehensive impact projection that better ...represents the uncertainties is a priority research issue. We used an ensemble-based projection approach that accounts for the uncertainties in climate projections associated with general circulation models (GCMs) and biophysical and empirical parameter values in a crop model. We applied the approach to address the paddy rice yield change in Japan in the 2050s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2081–2100) relative to the 1990s (1981–2000). Seventeen climate projections, nine (eight) climate projections performed by seven (six) GCMs conditional on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B (A2), were included in this projection. In addition, 50 sets of biophysical and empirical parameter values of a large-scale process-based crop model for irrigated paddy rice were included to represent the uncertainties of crop parameter values. The planting windows, cultivation practices, and crop cultivars in the future were assumed to be the same as the level in the baseline period (1990s). The resulting probability density functions conditioned on SRES A1B and A2 indicate projected median yield changes of + 17.2% and + 26.9% in Hokkaido, the northern part of Japan, in the 2050s and 2090s with 90% probability intervals of (− 5.2%, + 40.3%) and (+ 6.3%, + 51.2%), relative to the 1990s mean yield, respectively. The corresponding values in Aichi, on the Pacific side of Western Japan, are 2.2% and − 0.8%, with 90% probability intervals of (− 15.0%, + 14.9%) and (− 33.4%, + 17.9%), respectively. We also provided geographical maps of the probability that the future 20-year mean yield will decrease and that the future standard deviation of yield for 20 years will increase. Finally, we investigated the relative contributions of the climate projection and crop parameter values to the uncertainty in projecting yield change in the 2090s. The choice of GCM yielded a relatively larger spread of projected yield changes than that of the other factors. The choice of crop parameter values could be more important than that of GCM in a specific prefecture.
Background
Sore throat is a common side‐effect of general anaesthesia and is reported by between 30% and 70% of patients after tracheal intubation. The likelihood of a sore throat varies with the ...type, diameter, and cuff pressure of the endotracheal tube used. If intubation is essential, it may be helpful to give drugs prophylactically to alleviate postoperative sore throat. Local anaesthetics and steroids have been used for this purpose. This review was originally published in 2009 and was updated in 2015.
Objectives
The objective of this review was to evaluate the efficacy and any harm caused by topical and systemic lidocaine used prophylactically to prevent postoperative sore throat in adults undergoing general anaesthesia with endotracheal intubation.
Search methods
We searched CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 9), MEDLINE (January 1966 to October 2013), and EMBASE (1980 to October 2013). We also contacted manufacturers and researchers in the field. The original search was undertaken in June 2007. We reran the search in February 2015 and found four studies of interest. We will deal with those studies when we next update the review.
Selection criteria
We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of topical and systemic prophylactic lidocaine therapy versus control (using air or saline) that reported on the risk and severity of postoperative sore throat as an outcome.
Data collection and analysis
Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information, such as the risk of any adverse effects.
Main results
We included 19 studies involving 1940 participants in this updated review. Of those 1940 participants, 952 received topical or systemic lidocaine therapy and 795 were allocated to the control groups. Topical and systemic lidocaine therapy appeared to reduce the risk of postoperative sore throat (16 studies, 1774 participants, risk ratio (RR) was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48 to 0.85), the quality of the evidence was low), although when only high‐quality trials were included (eight studies, 814 participants) the effect was no longer significant (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.09). Lidocaine given systemically in two studies (320 participants) did not reveal evidence of an effect (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.19 to 1.05 ). The severity of sore throat as measured on a visual‐analogue scale (VAS) was reduced by lidocaine therapy (six trials, 611 participants, (mean difference (MD) ‐10.80, 95% CI ‐14.63 to ‐6.98). The adverse effects of lidocaine were not reported in these studies, though toxicity is generally rare.
Authors' conclusions
In our revised systematic review, although the results of included studies show generally positive results, they should be interpreted carefully. The effect size of lidocaine appeared to be affected by study quality; drug concentration; route of administration; management of cuff pressure during anaesthesia; the included population; and the type of outcome measured.
Epidural analgesia offers greater pain relief compared to systemic opioid-based medications, but its effect on morbidity and mortality is unclear. This review was originally published in 2006 and was ...updated in 2011.
To assess the benefits and harms of postoperative epidural analgesia in comparison with postoperative systemic opioid-based pain relief for adult patients who underwent elective abdominal aortic surgery.
We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 11) via Ovid; Ovid MEDLINE (from inception to week 1 November 2010); and EMBASE (from inception to week 1, November 2010). The original search was performed in 2004. We assessed non-English language reports and contacted researchers in the field. We did not seek unpublished data.
We included all randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing postoperative epidural analgesia and postoperative systemic opioid-based analgesia for adult patients who underwent elective open abdominal aortic surgery.
Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information and data.
We included 15 trials that involved 1297 patients (633 patients received epidural analgesia and 664 received systemic opioid analgesia) in this review. This included one trial we found in our updated search and one trial from our original review that had been awaiting translation. The epidural analgesia group showed significantly lower visual analogue scale scores for pain on movement (up to postoperative day three) regardless of the site of the epidural catheter and epidural formulation. The postoperative duration of tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation was significantly shorter, by about 48%, in the epidural analgesia group. The overall event rates of myocardial infarction, acute respiratory failure (defined as an extended need for mechanical ventilation), gastrointestinal complications, and renal complications were significantly lower in the epidural analgesia group.
Epidural analgesia provides better pain relief (especially during movement) in the period up to three postoperative days. It reduces the duration of postoperative tracheal intubation by roughly half. The occurrence of prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation, myocardial infarction, gastric complications and renal complications was reduced by epidural analgesia. However, current evidence does not confirm the beneficial effect of epidural analgesia on postoperative mortality and other types of complications.
Strains in heterostructures detected by standard NMR Nishimori, M.; Sasaki, S.; Watanabe, S. ...
Physica. E, Low-dimensional systems & nanostructures,
02/2010, Letnik:
42, Številka:
4
Journal Article, Conference Proceeding
Recenzirano
Using standard nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) technique, we have succeeded in observing the strains in an Al
0.3Ga
0.7As/GaAs heterostructrued sample through Al nuclear spins. From the observed ...quadrupolar-split frequency, the electric field gradient is found to be roughly 50 times as large as those observed through
69Ga nuclear spins in resistivity-detected NMR.
The development of an absolute radiometer instrument is currently a effort at INPE for TSI measurements. In this work, we describe the development of black Ni-P coatings for TSI radiometers ...absorptive cavities. We present a study of the surface blackening process and the relationships between morphological structure, chemical composition and coating absorption. Ni-P deposits with different phosphorous content were obtained by electroless techniques on aluminum substrates with a thin zincate layer. Appropriate phosphorus composition and etching parameters process produce low reflectance black coatings.
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