Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ...ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes ( i ) in response to in situ experimental warming, ( ii ) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and ( iii ) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.
Significance Methodological constraints can limit our ability to quantify potential impacts of climate warming. We assessed the consistency of three approaches in estimating warming effects on plant community composition: manipulative warming experiments, repeat sampling under ambient temperature change (monitoring), and space-for-time substitution. The three approaches showed agreement in the direction of change (an increase in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche), but differed in the magnitude of change estimated. Experimental and monitoring approaches were similar in magnitude, whereas space-for-time comparisons indicated a much stronger response. These results suggest that all three approaches are valid, but experimental warming and long-term monitoring are best suited for forecasting impacts over the coming decades.
Climate change is currently altering temperature and precipitation totals and timing in Arctic regions. Moss communities constitute much of the understory in Arctic vegetation, and as poikilohydric ...plants moss are highly sensitive to timing and duration of moisture levels. Here we investigate the role of moisture content on NDVI, red and near-infrared reflectance, and gross primary productivity (GPP) of two sphagnum and two pleurocarpus moss community types during two separate drying experiments. For both experiments, blocks of moss were collected near Imnavait Creek, Alaska, saturated to full water capacity, and then allowed to air dry before being re-saturated. Drying of blocks was conducted in a translucent outdoor tent during the first experiment and under indoor climate-controlled conditions during the second. Community NDVI (experiment 1 and 2), and GPP (experiment 2) were measured at regular intervals during the dry-down and after rewetting. In both experiments, moss NDVI sharply declined between 80% and 70% moisture content for sphagnum moss communities (NDVI change = −0.17 to −0.2), but less so for pleurocarpus moss communities (NDVI change = −0.06 to −0.12). Changes in NDVI were largely the result of increases in reflectance in red wavelengths. Peak GPP for all community types in the second experiment (1.31 to 2.08 μmol m−2 s−1) occurred at 80% moisture content and declined significantly as moisture content decreased. Rates of GPP continued to decline below 80% moisture content until near zero as moss reached a steady weight (air dry) over a period of 84 h, while NDVI values declined slowly between 70% hydration and fully air dry. Re-saturation caused NDVI to increase in both sphagnum (NDVI change = +0.18 to +0.23) and pleurocarpus (NDVI change = +0.10 to +0.17) communities. Only sphagnum communities showed GPP resuming (0.824 μmol m−2 s−1) after 24 h. The strong changes in NDVI and mismatch of moss NDVI values and GPP with moisture content fluctuations indicate that using NDVI as a proxy for productivity in Arctic vegetation communities may be problematic and underscores the need for quantification of moss community coverage, composition, and moisture content.
•We show a distinct mismatch between moss community water content and NDVI.•We show a distinct mismatch between moss NDVI and gross primary productivity.•NDVI use to measure productivity where moss is a major component may be in error.•These results have broad reaching impacts in remote sensing of terrestrial systems.
In arctic Alaska, air temperatures have warmed 0.5 degrees Celsius (°C) per decade for the past 30 years, with most of the warming coming in winter. Over the same period, shrub abundance has ...increased, perhaps a harbinger of a conversion of tundra to shrubland. Evidence suggests that winter biological processes are contributing to this conversion through a positive feedback that involves the snow-holding capacity of shrubs, the insulating properties of snow, a soil layer that has a high water content because it overlies nearly impermeable permafrost, and hardy microbes that can maintain metabolic activity at temperatures of −6°C or lower. Increasing shrub abundance leads to deeper snow, which promotes higher winter soil temperatures, greater microbial activity, and more plant-available nitrogen. High levels of soil nitrogen favor shrub growth the following summer. With climate models predicting continued warming, large areas of tundra could become converted to shrubland, with winter processes like those described here possibly playing a critical role.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Increased atmospheric CO2 could theoretically lead to increased forest productivity (‘CO2 fertilization’). This mechanism was hypothesized as a possible explanation for biomass increases reported ...from tropical forests in the last 30+ years. We used unique long‐term records of annually measured stands (eighteen 0.5 ha plots, 10 years) and focal tree species (six species, 24 years) to assess the effects of rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 on annual wood production in a neotropical rain forest. Our study area was a meso‐scale section (600 ha) of old‐growth Tropical Wet Forest in NE Costa Rica. Using the repeated remeasurements we directly assessed the relative effects of interannual climatic variation and increasing atmospheric CO2 on wood production. A remarkably simple two‐factor model explained 91% of the interannual variance in stand‐level tree growth; the statistically independent factors were total dry season rainfall (positive effect, r2=0.85) and night‐time temperature (negative effect, r2=0.42). Stand‐level tree mortality increased significantly with night‐time temperature. After accounting for dry season rainfall and night‐time temperature, there was no effect of annual CO2 on tree growth in either the stand or focal species data. Tree growth in this Tropical Wet Forest was surprisingly sensitive to the current range of dry season conditions and to variations in mean annual night‐time temperature of 1–2°. Our results suggest that wood production in the lowland rainforests of NE Costa Rica (and by extension in other tropical regions) may be severely reduced in future climates that are only slightly drier and/or warmer.
Both within and between species, leaf physiological parameters are strongly related to leaf dry mass per area (LMA, g/m
2
), which has been found to increase from forest floor to canopy top in every ...forest where it has been measured. Although vertical LMA gradients in forests have historically been attributed to a direct phenotypic response to light, an increasing number of recent studies have provided evidence that water limitation in the upper canopy can constrain foliar morphological adaptations to higher light levels. We measured height, light, and LMA of all species encountered along 45 vertical canopy transects across a Costa Rican tropical rain forest. LMA was correlated with light levels in the lower canopy until approximately 18 m sample height and 22% diffuse transmittance. Height showed a remarkably linear relationship with LMA throughout the entire vertical canopy profile for all species pooled and for each functional group individually (except epiphytes), possibly through the influence of gravity on leaf water potential and turgor pressure. Models of forest function may be greatly simplified by estimating LMA-correlated leaf physiological parameters solely from foliage height profiles, which in turn can be assessed with satellite- and aircraft-based remote sensing.
Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have ...important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: (i) graminoids (Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum); (ii) evergreen shrubs (Ledum palustre, Cassiope tetragona, and Vaccinium vitis‐idaea); (iii) deciduous shrubs (Betula nana and Salix pulchra); and (iv) forbs (Polygonum bistorta). Our study answered three questions: (i) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence? (ii) Are responses to treatments species‐specific and growth form‐specific? and (iii) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona, did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e., C. tetragona) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as a result of decreased snow cover will not necessarily result in greater tundra productivity.
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are ...increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
We synthesized eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites. We used statistical models to predict terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the region over 1990–2015. Average annual net ecosystem CO2 sink strength was generally strong in the boreal biome but decreased with increasing latitude towards the tundra which was nearly neutral. Uncertainties remained high, but our results suggest that the high‐latitude region was on average an annual terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink.
Wind damage from cyclones can devastate the forest canopy, altering environmental conditions in the understory that affect seedling growth and plant community regeneration. To investigate the impact ...of hurricane‐induced increases in light and soil nutrients as a result of canopy defoliation, we conducted a two‐way factorial light and nutrient manipulation in a shadehouse experiment. We measured seedling growth of the dominant canopy species in the four Everglades forest communities: pine rocklands (Pinus elliottii var densa), cypress domes (Taxodium distichum), hardwood hammocks, and tree islands (Quercus virginiana and Bursera simaruba). Light levels were full sun and 50% shade, and nutrient levels coupled with an additional set of individuals that were subjected to a treatment mimicking the sudden effects of canopy opening from hurricane‐induced defoliation and the corresponding nutrient pulse. Seedlings were measured weekly for height growth and photosynthesis, with seedlings being harvested after 16 weeks for biomass, leaf area, and leaf tissue N and 13C isotope ratio. Growth rates and biomass accumulation responded more to differences in soil nutrients than differences in light availability, with largest individuals being in the high nutrient treatments. For B. simaruba and P. elliottii, the highest photosynthetic rates occurred in the high light, high nutrient treatment, while T. distichum and Q. virginiana photosynthetic rates were highest in low light, high nutrient treatment. Tissue biomass allocation patterns remained similar across treatments, except for Q. virginiana, which altered above‐ and belowground biomass allocation to increase capture of limiting soil and light resources. In response to the hurricane simulation treatment, height growth increased rapidly for Q. virginiana and B. simaruba, with nonsignificant increases for the other two species. We show here that ultimately, hurricane‐adapted, tropical species may be more likely to recolonize the forest canopy following a large‐scale hurricane disturbance.
Wind damage associated with cyclones can devastate the forest canopy, strongly altering environmental conditions in the understory that affect seedling growth and canopy regeneration. To investigate the impact of hurricane‐induced increases in light and soil nutrients as a result of canopy defoliation, we conducted a two‐way factorial light and nutrient manipulation in a shadehouse. Ultimately, the ability of a species to recolonize hurricane damaged canopies may shift community dominance to more hurricane‐adapted species.
The area of tropical secondary forests is increasing rapidly, but data on the physical and biological structure of the canopies of these forests are limited. To obtain such data and to measure the ...ontogeny of canopy structure during tropical rainforest succession, we studied patch-scale (5 m2) canopy structure in three areas of 18-36 year-old secondary forest in Costa Rica, and compared the results to data from old-growth forest at the same site. All stands were sampled with a stratified random design with complete harvest from ground level to the top of the canopy from a modular portable tower. All canopies were organized into distinct high- and low-leaf-density layers (strata), and multiple strata developed quickly with increasing patch height. The relation of total Leaf Area Index (LAI, leaf area per area of ground) to patch canopy height, the existence of distinct high and low leaf- density layers (strata and free air spaces), the depth and LAI of the canopy strata and free air spaces, and the relation of the number of strata to patch canopy height were remarkably constant across the entire successional gradient. Trees were the most important contributor to LAI at all stages, while contribution of palm LAI increased through succession. We hypothesize that canopy physical structure at the patch scale is driven by light competition and discuss how this hypothesis could be tested. That canopy physical structure was relatively independent of the identity of the species present suggests that canopy physical structure may be conserved even as canopy floristics shift due to changing climate.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, ...and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.
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