We describe a version of the dynamic programming method, applicable to infinite-horizon discrete-time stochastic processes, and use this technique to solve a stylized problem of management of an ...economy effected by random natural hazards. Also, we characterize the equilibrium points in a game, in which two economies invest in common prevention measures to mitigate the future impact of natural hazards.
The aim of the Global Earth Observation System-of-Systems (GEOSS) is to improve the information available to decision makers, at all levels, relating to human health and safety, protection of the ...global environment, the reduction of losses from natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development. Specifically, GEOSS proposes that better international cooperation in the collection, interpretation, and sharing of Earth observation information is an important and cost-effective mechanism for achieving this aim. While there is a widespread intuition that this proposition is correct, at some point the following question needs to be answered: how much additional investment in Earth observation (and specifically, in its international integration) is enough? This leads directly to some challenging subsidiary questions, such as how can the benefits of Earth observation be assessed? What are the incremental costs of GEOSS? Are there societal benefit areas where the return on investment is higher than in others? The Geo-Bene Project has developed a ldquobenefit chainrdquo concept as a framework for addressing these questions. The basic idea is that an incremental improvement in the observing system (including its data collection, interpretation and information-sharing aspects) will result in an improvement in the quality of decisions based on that information. In turn, this will lead to better societal outcomes, which have a value. This incremental value must be judged against the incremental cost of the improved observation system. Since in many cases there will be large uncertainties in the estimation of both the costs and the benefits, and it may not be possible to express them in comparable monetary terms, we show how order-of-magnitude approaches and a qualitative understanding of the shape of the cost and benefit curves can help guide rational investment decisions in Earth Observation Systems.
The interdependencies among land use systems at national and global levels motivate the development of advanced systems analysis approaches for integration of land use models operating at different ...weights. The paper develops novel general approaches based on cross entropy principle for downscaling aggregate data and projections, which are robust with respect to feasible priors. Robust downscaling methods account for so-called non-Bayesian uncertainties, i.e., incomplete, unobservable, or erroneous information or data. In numerous case studies in China, African countries, Brazil, and Ukraine, the approaches allowed deriving local development projections of land use and land use change consistently with existing trends and expectations.
This paper deals with the modeling of two sectors of a regional economy: electricity and forestry. We show that CO2 price will impact not only the profits of the CO2 emitting electricity producer ...(decrease), but also the electricity prices for the consumer (increase), and, hence, some financial instruments might be implemented today in order to be prepared for the uncertain CO2 prices in the future. We elaborate financial instrument based on the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism. We model optimal behavior of forest owner and electricity producer under uncertainty and determine equilibrium fair prices of REDD-based-options.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC
1992
) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous ...anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO
2
concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies—e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO
2
).
Weather information is an integral part of modern fire management systems. In this paper, we investigate, by means of simulation studies, how improvements in the weather observation systems help to ...reduce burned area by targeting and monitoring places ripe fires are likely to occur. In our model, the air patrolling schedule is determined by the Nesterov index, which is calculated from observed weather data. We use two weather data sets based on ldquoroughrdquo and ldquofinerdquo grids. The reduction of the total burned area, associated with an air patrolling schedule based on the ldquofinerdquo grid, indicates the benefits of using better weather observations. We, also, consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. Finally, we investigate the system of systems effect. We find the largest marginal improvement from the rough grid results when we increase the quality of observations in most critical areas.
The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture and the P ...fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products on global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P inputs into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010 despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase in soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland vs. increasing P accumulation in eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because the continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and the recycling of waste P. The trend of the increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency and aggravating P-stock scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems are publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.
To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an ...intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
The proposed launch of a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) scheme by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a new incentive to improve global forest ...monitoring. By evaluating the state-of-the-art in government and scientific monitoring this paper shows that enhancements and new standards are needed for three key monitoring roles – measurement, reporting and verification – for governments at national scale and scientists at global scale. It outlines a new knowledge exchange matrix framework that can match different organizations to monitoring roles. Conversion of data into useful knowledge is represented by a knowledge exchange chain comprising a series of cycles, each divided into data collection, information production, reporting, verification and synthesis stages. Each stage potentially involves operational, facilitating and coordinating functions at local to global scales. Combining stages, functions and scales forms the knowledge exchange matrix. Organizations are matched to cells in the matrix by their competence and rules governing their operation. Applying the matrix to global forest monitoring shows that existing organizations can contribute complementary facilitating and coordinating functions to support REDD+. Yet none can harness satellite data operationally to produce information at the required spatial and temporal resolution. Two empty national and global operational niches could be filled by new national measurement, reporting and verification systems, operated by governments and facilitated by the Group on Earth Observations and other bodies; and an autonomous science-based World Forest Observatory whose information base could advance global change science and help to verify national REDD+ reports.
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