The seasonal incidence of influenza is often approximated as 5%-20%.
We used 2 methods to estimate the seasonal incidence of symptomatic influenza in the United States. First, we made a statistical ...estimate extrapolated from influenza-associated hospitalization rates for 2010-2011 to 2015-2016, collected as part of national surveillance, covering approximately 9% of the United States, and including the existing mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Second, we performed a literature search and meta-analysis of published manuscripts that followed cohorts of subjects during 1996-2016 to detect laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza among unvaccinated persons; we adjusted this result to the US median vaccination coverage and effectiveness during 2010-2016.
The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%-11.3% among seasons, with median values of 8.3% (95% confidence interval CI, 7.3%-9.7%) for all ages, 9.3% (95% CI, 8.2%-11.1%) for children <18 years, and 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2%-9.9%) for adults 18-64 years. Corresponding values for the meta-analysis were 7.1% (95% CI, 6.1%-8.1%) for all ages, 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6%-10.5%) for children, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.6%) for adults.
The 2 approaches produced comparable results for children and persons of all ages. The statistical estimates are more versatile and permit estimation of season-to-season variation. During 2010-2016, the incidence of symptomatic influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents, including both medically attended and nonattended infections, was approximately 8% and varied from 3% to 11% among seasons.
Summary Background The global burden of disease attributable to seasonal influenza virus in children is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from lower respiratory ...infections associated with influenza in children younger than 5 years. Methods We estimated the incidence of influenza episodes, influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), and influenza-associated severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2010, and 16 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to global population estimates for 2008 to calculate estimates for that year. We estimated possible bounds for influenza-associated ALRI mortality by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based reports and identifying studies with population-based data for influenza seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. Findings We identified 43 suitable studies, with data for around 8 million children. We estimated that, in 2008, 90 million (95% CI 49–162 million) new cases of influenza (data from nine studies), 20 million (13–32 million) cases of influenza-associated ALRI (13% of all cases of paediatric ALRI; data from six studies), and 1 million (1–2 million) cases of influenza-associated severe ALRI (7% of cases of all severe paediatric ALRI; data from 39 studies) occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years. We estimated there were 28 000–111 500 deaths in children younger than 5 years attributable to influenza-associated ALRI in 2008, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any one setting. Interpretation Influenza is a common pathogen identified in children with ALRI and results in a substantial burden on health services worldwide. Sufficient data to precisely estimate the role of influenza in childhood mortality from ALRI are not available. Funding WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Transplant recipients are among the groups for whom the updated recommendations for 2020–2021 influenza vaccination should generally be considered essential, notably in the face of the COVID‐19 ...pandemic.
Influenza-associated pediatric deaths became a notifiable condition in the United States in 2004.
We analyzed deaths in children aged <18 years with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection ...reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the 2010-2011 to 2015-2016 influenza seasons. Data were collected with a standard case report form that included demographics, medical conditions, and clinical diagnoses.
Overall, 675 deaths were reported. The median age was 6 years (interquartile range: 2-12). The average annual incidence was 0.15 per 100 000 children (95% confidence interval: 0.14-0.16) and was highest among children aged <6 months (incidence: 0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.53-0.82), followed by children aged 6-23 months (incidence: 0.33; 95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.39). Only 31% (
= 149 of 477) of children aged ≥6 months had received any influenza vaccination. Overall, 65% (
= 410 of 628) of children died within 7 days after symptom onset. Half of the children (
= 327 of 654) had no preexisting medical conditions. Compared with children with preexisting medical conditions, children with none were younger (median: 5 vs 8 years old), less vaccinated (27% vs 36%), more likely to die before hospital admission (77% vs 48%), and had a shorter illness duration (4 vs 7 days;
< .05 for all).
Each year, influenza-associated pediatric deaths are reported. Young children have the highest death rates, especially infants aged <6 months. Increasing vaccination among children, pregnant women, and caregivers of infants may reduce influenza-associated pediatric deaths.
Background
Estimates of influenza disease burden are broadly useful for public health, helping national and local authorities monitor epidemiologic trends, plan and allocate resources, and promote ...influenza vaccination. Historically, estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States, focused mainly on influenza‐related mortality and hospitalization, were generated every few years. Since the 2010‐2011 influenza season, annual US influenza burden estimates have been generated and expanded to include estimates of influenza‐related outpatient medical visits and symptomatic illness in the community.
Methods
We used routinely collected surveillance data, outbreak field investigations, and proportions of people seeking health care from survey results to estimate the number of illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to influenza during six influenza seasons (2010‐2011 through 2015‐2016).
Results
We estimate that the number of influenza‐related illnesses that have occurred during influenza season has ranged from 9.2 million to 35.6 million, including 140 000 to 710 000 influenza‐related hospitalizations.
Discussion
These annual efforts have strengthened public health communications products and supported timely assessment of the impact of vaccination through estimates of illness and hospitalizations averted. Additionally, annual estimates of influenza burden have highlighted areas where disease surveillance needs improvement to better support public health decision making for seasonal influenza epidemics as well as future pandemics.
Influenza illness burden is substantial, particularly among young children, older adults, and those with underlying conditions. Initiatives are underway to develop better global estimates for ...influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths. Knowledge gaps remain regarding the role of influenza viruses in severe respiratory disease and hospitalizations among adults, particularly in lower-income settings.
We aggregated published data from a systematic review and unpublished data from surveillance platforms to generate global meta-analytic estimates for the proportion of acute respiratory hospitalizations associated with influenza viruses among adults. We searched 9 online databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Global Health, LILACS, WHOLIS, and CNKI; 1 January 1996-31 December 2016) to identify observational studies of influenza-associated hospitalizations in adults, and assessed eligible papers for bias using a simplified Newcastle-Ottawa scale for observational data. We applied meta-analytic proportions to global estimates of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and hospitalizations from the Global Burden of Disease study in adults ≥20 years and by age groups (20-64 years and ≥65 years) to obtain the number of influenza-associated LRI episodes and hospitalizations for 2016. Data from 63 sources showed that influenza was associated with 14.1% (95% CI 12.1%-16.5%) of acute respiratory hospitalizations among all adults, with no significant differences by age group. The 63 data sources represent published observational studies (n = 28) and unpublished surveillance data (n = 35), from all World Health Organization regions (Africa, n = 8; Americas, n = 11; Eastern Mediterranean, n = 7; Europe, n = 8; Southeast Asia, n = 11; Western Pacific, n = 18). Data quality for published data sources was predominantly moderate or high (75%, n = 56/75). We estimate 32,126,000 (95% CI 20,484,000-46,129,000) influenza-associated LRI episodes and 5,678,000 (95% CI 3,205,000-9,432,000) LRI hospitalizations occur each year among adults. While adults <65 years contribute most influenza-associated LRI hospitalizations and episodes (3,464,000 95% CI 1,885,000-5,978,000 LRI hospitalizations and 31,087,000 95% CI 19,987,000-44,444,000 LRI episodes), hospitalization rates were highest in those ≥65 years (437/100,000 person-years 95% CI 265-612/100,000 person-years). For this analysis, published articles were limited in their inclusion of stratified testing data by year and age group. Lack of information regarding influenza vaccination of the study population was also a limitation across both types of data sources.
In this meta-analysis, we estimated that influenza viruses are associated with over 5 million hospitalizations worldwide per year. Inclusion of both published and unpublished findings allowed for increased power to generate stratified estimates, and improved representation from lower-income countries. Together, the available data demonstrate the importance of influenza viruses as a cause of severe disease and hospitalizations in younger and older adults worldwide.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating ...in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.
Summary Background Pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus has been identified as the cause of a widespread outbreak of febrile respiratory infection in the USA and worldwide. We summarised cases of ...infection with pandemic H1N1 virus in pregnant women identified in the USA during the first month of the present outbreak, and deaths associated with this virus during the first 2 months of the outbreak. Methods After initial reports of infection in pregnant women, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began systematically collecting additional information about cases and deaths in pregnant women in the USA with pandemic H1N1 virus infection as part of enhanced surveillance. A confirmed case was defined as an acute respiratory illness with laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 virus infection by real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR or viral culture; a probable case was defined as a person with an acute febrile respiratory illness who was positive for influenza A, but negative for H1 and H3. We used population estimates derived from the 2007 census data to calculate rates of admission to hospital and illness. Findings From April 15 to May 18, 2009, 34 confirmed or probable cases of pandemic H1N1 in pregnant women were reported to CDC from 13 states. 11 (32%) women were admitted to hospital. The estimated rate of admission for pandemic H1N1 influenza virus infection in pregnant women during the first month of the outbreak was higher than it was in the general population (0·32 per 100 000 pregnant women, 95% CI 0·13–0·52 vs 0·076 per 100 000 population at risk, 95% CI 0·07–0·09). Between April 15 and June 16, 2009, six deaths in pregnant women were reported to the CDC; all were in women who had developed pneumonia and subsequent acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation. Interpretation Pregnant women might be at increased risk for complications from pandemic H1N1 virus infection. These data lend support to the present recommendation to promptly treat pregnant women with H1N1 influenza virus infection with anti-influenza drugs. Funding US CDC.
Influenza A viruses are believed to spread between humans through contact, large respiratory droplets and small particle droplet nuclei (aerosols), but the relative importance of each of these modes ...of transmission is unclear. Volunteer studies suggest that infections via aerosol transmission may have a higher risk of febrile illness. Here we apply a mathematical model to data from randomized controlled trials of hand hygiene and surgical face masks in Hong Kong and Bangkok households. In these particular environments, inferences on the relative importance of modes of transmission are facilitated by information on the timing of secondary infections and apparent differences in clinical presentation of secondary infections resulting from aerosol transmission. We find that aerosol transmission accounts for approximately half of all transmission events. This implies that measures to reduce transmission by contact or large droplets may not be sufficient to control influenza A virus transmission in households.
After recognition of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by mid- to late February 2020, indicators of influenza activity began ...to decline in the Northern Hemisphere. These changes were attributed to both artifactual changes related to declines in routine health seeking for respiratory illness as well as real changes in influenza virus circulation because of widespread implementation of measures to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Data from clinical laboratories in the United States indicated a 61% decrease in the number of specimens submitted (from a median of 49,696 per week during September 29, 2019-February 29, 2020, to 19,537 during March 1-May 16, 2020) and a 98% decrease in influenza activity as measured by percentage of submitted specimens testing positive (from a median of 19.34% to 0.33%). Interseasonal (i.e., summer) circulation of influenza in the United States (May 17-August 8, 2020) is currently at historical lows (median = 0.20% tests positive in 2020 versus 2.35% in 2019, 1.04% in 2018, and 2.36% in 2017). Influenza data reported to the World Health Organization's (WHO's) FluNet platform from three Southern Hemisphere countries that serve as robust sentinel sites for influenza from Oceania (Australia), South America (Chile), and Southern Africa (South Africa) showed very low influenza activity during June-August 2020, the months that constitute the typical Southern Hemisphere influenza season. In countries or jurisdictions where extensive community mitigation measures are maintained (e.g., face masks, social distancing, school closures, and teleworking), those locations might have little influenza circulation during the upcoming 2020-21 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The use of community mitigation measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, plus influenza vaccination, are likely to be effective in reducing the incidence and impact of influenza, and some of these mitigation measures could have a role in preventing influenza in future seasons. However, given the novelty of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty of continued community mitigation measures, it is important to plan for seasonal influenza circulation in the United States this fall and winter. Influenza vaccination of all persons aged ≥6 months remains the best method for influenza prevention and is especially important this season when SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus might cocirculate (1).
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
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