While ascertaining low and stable inflation expectations is a significant challenge across developed and emerging economies, energy shocks are central to this endeavor. Therefore, this study's prime ...objective is to investigate the role of energy shocks, monetary policy, and fiscal policy in managing inflation expectations in the context of the Federal Reserve's inflation targeting regime, adopted in 2012. We analyze monthly data on the United States from 1994 to 2022. Using the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Quantile ARDL (QARDL) estimators, we analyze and compare three different samples: full period, pre-inflation targeting regime (1994 to 2012), and post-inflation targeting regime (2012 to 2022). The conclusions suggest that inflation, energy shocks, and money supply have significant implications for inflation expectations in most quantiles during pre- and post-inflation targeting regimes. Policy implications for research and practice are also discussed.
•The impacts of energy shocks, fiscal policies and money supply for inflation expectations.•United States data was used from 1994 m1 to 2022 m10.•Pre and post inflation explicit targeting policies (2012) was performed.•energy shocks, fiscal policies and money supply are strong contributors of inflation expectations.•Study attempts to draw novel policy related implications in context of inflation expectations.
The international monetary system is marked by a hierarchical relationship between currencies, where the US dollar is widely used. Recently, central banks have started to launch Central Bank Digital ...Currencies (CBDCs), which, in contrast to cryptocurrencies, are issued by monetary authorities. The purpose of this paper is (i) to analyse and explain domestic retail CBDCs in detail, and (ii) to assess whether the creation of CBDCs poses a threat to the US dollar as the key currency of the international monetary and financial system. It will be argued that, despite the innovations a CBDC may bring, the role of the US dollar will not be affected by the introduction of multiple CBDCs (mCBDCs) alone. Although mCBDC arrangements might decentralise the international payment system, the underlying structures supporting today's unipolar system would not automatically change. It is crucial that central banks work together to establish an alternative international monetary system.
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•The international monetary system is highly dependent on the US dollar.•Cryptocurrencies fail to perform the functions of money.•CBDC alone does not pose a threat to the leading role of the US dollar.•CBDC may help central banks to establish an alternative cross-border payment system.
The variety of monetary and regional cooperation institutions often is characterised as uneven, fragmented, and partially contested. In contrast to this narrative, Grabel (2018) applies a ...Hirschmanian mindset to monetary and regional cooperation that highlights the experimental nature of recent innovations as a 'productive incoherence'. This paper presents a case study of such productive incoherence. We examine the institutional set up of the Local Currency Payments System (SML) between the Mercosur countries based on interviews with Central Bank staff and statistical analysis. We assess the factors that explain the emergence, limitations and institutional linkages of the SML. The results suggest that, despite its small scale, the mechanism expanded and provided to be remarkably robust in midst of a generally agonising Mercosur, representing the first cooperation between the Mercosur central banks after decades of absence of coordination of exchange rate policy and foreign exchange regulation. Our findings confirm and further refine Grabel's approach: assessing incremental changes in terms of highly specific and contingent policies is key to understanding the role institutions play for development. We conclude that even very small-scale initiatives such as the SML can contribute to developmental monetary and financial governance as a building block of reform and change.
Despite the great successes achieved in the fields of virology and diagnostics,several difficulties affect improvements in hepatitis C virus(HCV)infection control and eradication in the new era.New ...HCV infections still occur,especially in some of the poorest regions of the world,where HCV is endemic and long-term sequelae have a growing economic and health burden.An HCV vaccine is still no available,despite years of researches and discoveries about the natural history of infection and host-virus interactions:several HCV vaccine candidates have been developed in the last years,targeting different HCV antigens or using alternative delivery systems,but viral variability and adaption ability constitute major challenges for vaccine development.Many new antiviral drugs for HCV therapy are in preclinical or early clinical development,but different limitations affect treatment validity.Treatment predictors are important tools,as they provide some guidance for the management of therapy in patients with chronic HCV infection:in particular,the role of host genomics in HCV infection outcomes in the new era of direct-acting antivirals may evolve for new therapeutic targets,representing a chance for modulated and personalized treatment management,when also very potent therapies will be available.In the present review we discuss the most recent data about HCV epidemiology,the new perspectives for the prevention of HCV infection and the most recent evidence regarding HCV diagnosis,therapy and predictors of response to it.
Currency internationalisation, often defined by the use of a local currency beyond the national frontier, has been a topic widely discussed in the literature. The recent rise of currencies from ...emerging market economies in the international market has suggested that some peripheral currencies have become more internationalised. However, their position in the currency hierarchy, which is formed by the US dollar at the top and other central currencies in an intermediate position, has remained the same. Despite the growing participation of emerging currencies in the international market, the literature focuses primarily on the internationalisation of central currencies, with the exception of the Chinese renminbi. Additionally, most empirical studies in this literature focus on a single dimension or analyse a general degree of currency internationalisation. The general objective of this thesis is to investigate the nature and the determinants of the internationalisation of central and peripheral currencies. This thesis focuses on the types of currency internationalisation, which are reflected in the currency hierarchy, and adopts a Post Keynesian perspective to shed light on the subordinate position of peripheral currencies in the International Monetary System. A cluster analysis is applied to evaluate the different types of currency internationalisation, followed by a panel data on the determinants of each of these dimensions. Lastly, this thesis conducts semi-structured interviews to understand the nature of the internationalisation of the Brazilian real, which is an emerging currency that has been more used by non-residents recently. As a general conclusion, this thesis suggests that emerging market currencies are mainly internationalised as a short-term investment currency, which reinforces their subordinate position in the currency hierarchy.
On 9th January 2020, China CDC reported a novel coronavirus (later named SARS-CoV-2) as the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Identifying the first appearance of virus is of ...epidemiological importance to tracking and mapping the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a country. We therefore conducted a retrospective observational study to detect SARS-CoV-2 in oropharyngeal samples collected from hospitalized patients with a Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) enrolled in the DRIVE (Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness) study in five Italian hospitals (CIRI-IT BIVE hospitals network) (1st November 2019 - 29th February 2020).
To acquire new information on the real trend in SARS-CoV-2 infection during pandemic phase I and to determine the possible early appearance of the virus in Italy.
Samples were tested for influenza RT-PCR assay (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yam, B/Vic) in accordance with the DRIVE study protocol. Subsequently, swabs underwent molecular testing for SARS-COV-2. one-step real-time multiplex retro-transcription (RT) PCR.
In the 1683 samples collected, no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 was found. Moreover, 28.3% (477/1683) of swabs were positive for influenza viruses, the majority being type A (358 vs 119 type B). A/H3N2 was predominant among influenza A viruses (55%); among influenza B viruses, B/Victoria was prevalent. The highest influenza incidence rate was reported in patients aged 0-17 years (40.3%) followed by those aged 18-64 years (24.4%) and ≥65 years (14.8%).
In Italy, some studies have shown the early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in northern regions, those most severely affected during phase I of the pandemic. In central and southern regions, by contrast no early circulation of the virus was registered. These results are in line with ours. These findings highlight the need to continue to carry out retrospective studies, in order to understand the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus, to better identify the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in comparison with other acute respiratory illnesses (ARI), and to evaluate the real burden of COVID-19 on the healthcare system.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•It is unclear which clinical case definition predicts laboratory-confirmed RSV best.•About one fifths of adults positive for RSV have no fever.•Conversely, most adults positive for RSV have ...cough.•Influenza-like illness surveillance may therefore underestimate the incidence of RSV.•Acute respiratory infection with cough may be suitable for RSV surveillance.
Although respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infections (ARIs), it is unclear which of the case definitions that prompt swab collection predicts RSV best. We aimed to profile RSV-positive adults and to identify possible RSV case definitions.
This individual-based pooled analysis was based on influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance conducted among Italian outpatient adults. All samples were tested for influenza, RSV and other respiratory viruses.
RSV was detected in 5.2% of the 1240 ILI adults tested. The prevalence of fever/feverishness was significantly lower (83.3%) in individuals positive for RSV and those negative for both viruses (79.4%) than in influenza-positive subjects (96.2%). Conversely, 98.3% of RSV-positive adults reported cough. Compared with subjects who tested negative, the adjusted relative risk ratio of cough in RSV-positive subjects was much higher than in influenza-positive subjects (6.89 vs 2.79). Using ARI with cough as the RSV case definition increased specificity.
As fever/feverishness is more common among influenza than RSV cases, ILI-based surveillance may underestimate RSV incidence in adult outpatients. While broad ARI definitions are useful for routine RSV surveillance, their low specificity may hamper vaccine effectiveness studies. The use of further ARI qualifiers like cough increases specificity.
Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 can be classified into different clinical phenotypes based on their demographic, clinical, radiology, and laboratory features
In this study, we externally ...confirmed the prognostic impact of clinical phenotypes previously identified by Gutierrez-Gutierrez and colleagues in a Spanish cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and the usefulness of their simplified probabilistic model for phenotypes assignment
This could indirectly support the validity of both phenotype's development and their extrapolation to other hospitals and countries for management decisions during other possible future viral pandemics
Hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can be classified into different clinical phenotypes based on their demographic, clinical, radiology, and laboratory features. We aimed to validate in an external cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients the prognostic value of a previously described phenotyping system (FEN-COVID-19) and to assess the reproducibility of phenotypes development as a secondary analysis.
Patients were classified in phenotypes A, B or C according to the severity of oxygenation impairment, inflammatory response, hemodynamic and laboratory tests according to the FEN-COVID-19 method.
Overall, 992 patients were included in the study, and 181 (18%), 757 (76%) and 54 (6%) of them were assigned to the FEN-COVID-19 phenotypes A, B, and C, respectively. An association with mortality was observed for phenotype C vs. A (hazard ratio HR 3.10, 95% confidence interval CI 1.81-5.30, p < 0.001) and for phenotype C vs. B (HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.50-3.23, p < 0.001). A non-statistically significant trend towards higher mortality was also observed for phenotype B vs. A (HR 1.41; 95% CI 0.92-2.15, p = 0.115). By means of cluster analysis, three different phenotypes were also identified in our cohort, with an overall similar gradient in terms of prognostic impact to that observed when patients were assigned to FEN-COVID-19 phenotypes.
The prognostic impact of FEN-COVID-19 phenotypes was confirmed in our external cohort, although with less difference in mortality between phenotypes A and B than in the original study.
•Influenza vaccine effectiveness was assessed in a large hospital setting.•The 2023/2024 season in Italy was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.•In older adults, a moderate vaccine effectiveness was ...of 51% was observed.•In older adults, enhanced influenza vaccines may provide better protection.
In order to support policymakers in allocating resources, we aimed to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs) available for Italian adults in the 2023/2024 season.
A hospital-based test-negative case-control study was conducted in Genoa between mid-October 2023 and mid-April 2024. Adult (≥18 years) inpatients with prescription of a polymerase chain reaction test for influenza were eligible.
Of 1,664 adults analyzed, most (82%) of which were ≥65 years, 114 (6.9%) tested positive for influenza A. Most (92%) cases were caused by subclades 6B.1A.5a.2a and 6B.1A.5a.2a.1 of the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype. In older adults aged ≥65 years vaccination was effective at 51% (95% CI: 8%, 74%) against any influenza A and 49% (95% CI: 2%, 73%) against A(H1N1)pdm09. Compared with non-vaccinated older adults, VE point estimates for the adjuvanted and, especially, high-dose IIVs were higher than those for the standard-dose non-adjuvanted IIV.
The 2023/2024 seasonal influenza vaccination proved moderately effective in preventing hospitalization for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Being more appropriate for older adults, local policymakers and vaccinating physicians should maximize adoption of the enhanced IIVs.
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