The effects of land-use changes on climate are assessed using specified-concentration simulations complementary to the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios performed ...for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This analysis focuses on differences in climate and land–atmosphere fluxes between the ensemble averages of simulations with and without land-use changes by the end of the twenty-first century. Even though common land-use scenarios are used, the areas of crops and pastures are specific for each Earth system model (ESM). This is due to different interpretations of land-use classes. The analysis reveals that fossil fuel forcing dominates land-use forcing. In addition, the effects of land-use changes are globally not significant, whereas they are significant for regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. For these regions, three out of six participating models—the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (Earth System) (HadGEM2-ES); and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM)—reveal statistically significant changes in mean annual surface air temperature. In addition, changes in land surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use changes. These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. The relative importance of the climatic effects of land-use changes is higher for the RCP2.6 scenario, which considers an expansion of biofuel croplands as a climate mitigation option. The underlying similarity among all models is the loss in global land carbon storage due to land-use changes.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The HadGEM2 earth system climate model was used to assess the impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations over the Amazon forest and its impact on vegetation, under present-day climate ...conditions. Here we consider biomass burning emissions from wildfires, deforestation fires, agricultural forest burning, and residential and commercial combustion. Simulated surface ozone concentration is evaluated against observations taken at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon forest for years 2010 to 2012. The model is able to reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface ozone mixing ratio at the two sites, but overestimates the magnitude of the monthly averaged hourly measurements by 5-15 ppb for each available month at one of the sites. We vary biomass burning emissions over South America by plus or minus 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% to quantify the modelled impact of biomass burning on surface ozone concentrations and ozone damage on vegetation productivity over the Amazon forest. We used the ozone damage scheme in the "high" sensitivity mode to give an upper limit for this effect. Decreasing South American biomass burning emissions by 100% (i.e. to zero) reduces surface ozone concentrations (by about 15 ppb during the biomass burning season) and suggests a 15% increase in monthly mean net primary productivity averaged over the Amazon forest, with local increases up to 60%. The simulated impact of ozone damage from present-day biomass burning on vegetation productivity is about 230 TgC yr-1. Taking into account that uncertainty in these estimates is substantial, this ozone damage impact over the Amazon forest is of the same order of magnitude as the release of carbon dioxide due to fire in South America; in effect it potentially doubles the impact of biomass burning on the carbon cycle.
We have implemented a process‐based isoprene emission model in the HadGEM2 Earth‐system model with coupled atmospheric chemistry in order to examine the feedback between isoprene emission and ...climate. Isoprene emissions and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate are estimated for preindustrial (1860–1869), present‐day (2000–2009), and future (2100–2109) climate conditions. The estimate of 460 TgC/yr for present‐day global total isoprene emission is consistent with previous estimates. Preindustrial isoprene emissions are estimated to be 26% higher than present‐day. Future isoprene emissions using the RCP8.5 scenario are similar to present‐day because increased emissions resulting from climate warming are countered by CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions. The impact of biogenic isoprene emissions on the global O3 burden and CH4 lifetime is small but locally significant, and the impact of changes in isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on the state of climate and chemistry.
Key Points
Implementation of a process‐based isoprene emission scheme in Earth‐system model
Feedback between isoprene emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and climate
Impact of isoprene emissions on O3 and CH4 depends on climate and chemistry
We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – ...atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.
Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle. Isoprene is quantitatively the most important of the non-methane BVOCs (NMBVOCs), ...with an annual emission of about 400–600 TgC; about 90% of this is emitted by terrestrial plants. Incorporating a mechanistic treatment of isoprene emissions within land-surface schemes has recently become a focus for the modelling community, the aim being to quantify the potential magnitude of associated climate feedbacks. However, these efforts are hampered by major uncertainties about why plants emit isoprene and the relative importance of different environmental controls on isoprene emission. The availability and reliability of observations of isoprene fluxes from different types of vegetation is limited, and this also imposes constraints on model development. Nevertheless, progress is being made towards the development of mechanistic models of isoprene emission which, in conjunction with atmospheric chemistry models, will ultimately allow improved quantification of the feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and climate under past and future climate states.
Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only ...includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims.
Induction of a senescent phenotype in tumor cells has been linked to anticancer immune response, however, the molecular mechanisms mediating these phenomenon have not yet been determined. In this ...study, we present evidence that induction of premature senescence in human cancer cell lines induces Fas expression, and loss of resistance to Fas-induced apoptosis. Triggering of Fas by using the agonistic antibody CH11 or the recombinant ligand APO010, activates an apoptotic pathway responsible for cell death. Secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines by the senescent cells, particularly TNF-α and IFN-γ, mediates Fas upregulation. Indeed, treatment of proliferating cancer cell lines with TNF-α and IFN-γ, upregulates Fas expression, while blocking TNF-α and IFN-γ by using neutralizing antibodies, decreases Fas expression in senescent cells. We also demonstrate that NF-κB has a central role in controlling the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) by the premature senescent cells, and that TNF-α and IFN-γ, transcriptionally controlled by NF-κB, are the main mediators of Fas upregulation. Our data suggest the existence of an NF-κB-dependent autocrine loop, mediated by TNF-α and IFN-γ, responsible for expression of Fas on the surface of senescent cells, and for their killing.
A forecasting system has been implemented for operational weather prediction over southern Italy in the framework of the RISKMED (INTERREG IIIB) project, which aims at weather-risk reduction in the ...central and eastern Mediterranean area. The system comprises two different regional forecasting chains, one based on BOLAM and MOLOCH models, the second based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 26 September 2006, a subsynoptic-scale vortex developed over the Mediterranean Sea and affected south-eastern Italy. The cyclone was documented by radar reflectivity maps, Meteosat Second Generation satellite images and surface stations data. The observational analysis showed that the cyclone possessed the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. All the limited-area models employed in RISKMED were able to properly forecast the formation of the small-scale vortex, although with differences in intensity, trajectory and evolution. The predictability of the event has been evaluated employing a multi-model, multi-analysis approach. The simulation results show strong sensitivity to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments were performed in order to analyse the mechanisms responsible for the development and the maintenance of the cyclone over the sea. The life cycle of the vortex turned out to be characterized by different phases: the orographic cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains; the initial phase of development, characterised by the critical role played by the surface heat fluxes; the transition to a tropical-like cyclone mainly as a consequence of the latent-heat release associated with strong convective activity over the Ionian Sea; finally, the maintenance of the vortex strength due to both the surface fluxes and the release of latent heat.
This study underlines the important role of the transported black carbon (BC) mass concentration in the West African monsoon (WAM) area.
BC was measured with a micro-aethalometer
integrated in the ...payload bay of the unmanned research aircraft ALADINA (Application of Light-weight Aircraft for Detecting IN situ Aerosol). As part of the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project, 53 measurement flights were carried out at Savè, Benin, on 2–16 July 2016. A high variability of BC (1.79 to 2.42±0.31 µg m−3) was calculated along 155 vertical profiles that were performed below cloud base in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In contrast to initial expectations of primary emissions, the vertical distribution of BC was mainly influenced by the stratification of the ABL during the WAM season. The article focuses on an event (14 and 15 July 2016) which showed distinct layers of BC in the lowermost 900 m above ground level (a.g.l.). Low concentrations of NOx and CO were sampled at the Savè supersite near the aircraft measurements and suggested a marginal impact of local sources during the case study. The lack of primary BC emissions was verified by a comparison of the measured BC with
the model COSMO-ART (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling–Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) that was applied for the field campaign period.
The modelled vertical profiles of BC led to the assumption that the measured BC was already altered, as the size was mainly dominated by the accumulation mode. Further, calculated vertical transects of wind speed and BC presume that the observed BC layer was transported from the south with maritime inflow but was mixed vertically after the onset of a nocturnal low-level jet at the measurement site. This report contributes to the scope of DACCIWA by linking airborne BC data with ground observations and a model, and it illustrates the importance of a more profound understanding of the interaction between BC and the ABL in the WAM region.
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