Emerging infectious diseases in humans are frequently caused by pathogens originating from animal hosts, and zoonotic disease outbreaks present a major challenge to global health. To investigate ...drivers of virus spillover, we evaluated the number of viruses mammalian species have shared with humans. We discovered that the number of zoonotic viruses detected in mammalian species scales positively with global species abundance, suggesting that virus transmission risk has been highest from animal species that have increased in abundance and even expanded their range by adapting to human-dominated landscapes. Domesticated species, primates and bats were identified as having more zoonotic viruses than other species. Among threatened wildlife species, those with population reductions owing to exploitation and loss of habitat shared more viruses with humans. Exploitation of wildlife through hunting and trade facilitates close contact between wildlife and humans, and our findings provide further evidence that exploitation, as well as anthropogenic activities that have caused losses in wildlife habitat quality, have increased opportunities for animal-human interactions and facilitated zoonotic disease transmission. Our study provides new evidence for assessing spillover risk from mammalian species and highlights convergent processes whereby the causes of wildlife population declines have facilitated the transmission of animal viruses to humans.
The emergence of a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and more recently, the independent evolution of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants has generated renewed ...interest in virus evolution and cross-species transmission. While all known human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are speculated to have originated in animals, very little is known about their evolutionary history and factors that enable some CoVs to co-exist with humans as low pathogenic and endemic infections (HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1), while others, such as SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have evolved to cause severe disease. In this review, we highlight the origins of all known HCoVs and map positively selected for mutations within HCoV proteins to discuss the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, we discuss emerging mutations within SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern (VOC), along with highlighting the demonstrated or speculated impact of these mutations on virus transmission, pathogenicity, and neutralization by natural or vaccine-mediated immunity.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Flaviviruses continue to cause globally relevant epidemics and have emerged or re-emerged in regions that were previously unaffected. Factors determining emergence of flaviviruses and continuing ...circulation in sylvatic cycles are incompletely understood. Here we identify potential sylvatic reservoirs of flaviviruses and characterize the macro-ecological traits common to known wildlife hosts to predict the risk of sylvatic flavivirus transmission among wildlife and identify regions that could be vulnerable to outbreaks. We evaluate variability in wildlife hosts for zoonotic flaviviruses and find that flaviviruses group together in distinct clusters with similar hosts. Models incorporating ecological and climatic variables as well as life history traits shared by flaviviruses predict new host species with similar host characteristics. The combination of vector distribution data with models for flavivirus hosts allows for prediction of global vulnerability to flaviviruses and provides potential targets for disease surveillance in animals and humans.
The notion of a (uni)versal building associated with a point in the Hitchin base is introduced. The universal building is a building equipped with a harmonic map from the universal cover of the given ...Riemann surface that is initial among harmonic maps which induce the given cameral cover of the Riemann surface. The notion of a versal building is obtained by relaxing the uniqueness condition in the definition of an initial object. In the rank one case, the universal building is the leaf space of the quadratic differential defining the point in the Hitchin base. The main conjectures of this paper are: (1) a versal building always exists; (2) the asymptotics of the Riemann–Hilbert correspondence and the non-abelian Hodge correspondence are controlled by the harmonic map associated to any versal building; (3) spectral networks arise as inverse images of singularities of the versal building; and (4) versal buildings encode the data of a 3d Calabi-Yau category whose space of stability conditions has a connected component that contains the Hitchin base. The main theorem establishes the existence of the universal building, conjecture (3), as well as the Riemann–Hilbert part of conjecture (2), in the case of the rank two example introduced in the seminal work of Berk–Nevins–Roberts on higher order Stokes phenomena. It is also shown that the asymptotics of the Riemann–Hilbert correspondence are always controlled by a harmonic map to a certain building, which is constructed as the asymptotic cone of a symmetric space.
Across the world, the officially reported number of COVID-19 deaths is likely an undercount. Establishing true mortality is key to improving data transparency and strengthening public health systems ...to tackle future disease outbreaks. In this study, we estimated excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Pune region of India. Excess deaths are defined as the number of additional deaths relative to those expected from pre-COVID-19-pandemic trends. We integrated data from: (a) epidemiological modeling using pre-pandemic all-cause mortality data, (b) discrepancies between media-reported death compensation claims and official reported mortality, and (c) the "wisdom of crowds" public surveying. Our results point to an estimated 14,770 excess deaths 95% CI 9820-22,790 in Pune from March 2020 to December 2021, of which 9093 were officially counted as COVID-19 deaths. We further calculated the undercount factor-the ratio of excess deaths to officially reported COVID-19 deaths. Our results point to an estimated undercount factor of 1.6 95% CI 1.1-2.5. Besides providing similar conclusions about excess deaths estimates across different methods, our study demonstrates the utility of frugal methods such as the analysis of death compensation claims and the wisdom of crowds in estimating excess mortality.
Ebola virus is highly lethal for great apes. Estimated mortality rates up to 98% have reduced the global gorilla population by approximately one-third. As mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei ...beringei) are endangered, with just over 1000 individuals remaining in the world, an outbreak could decimate the population. Simulation modeling was used to evaluate the potential impact of an Ebola virus outbreak on the mountain gorilla population of the Virunga Massif. Findings indicate that estimated contact rates among gorilla groups are high enough to allow rapid spread of Ebola, with less than 20% of the population projected to survive at 100 days post-infection of just one gorilla. Despite increasing survival with vaccination, no modeled vaccination strategy prevented widespread infection. However, the model projected that survival rates greater than 50% could be achieved by vaccinating at least half the habituated gorillas within 3 weeks of the first infectious individual.
Equine protozoal myeloencephalitis (EPM) is a challenging disease to diagnose in horses with neurological signs. To optimize contemporary diagnostic testing, including the use of serum:CSF antibody ...ratios, the SarcoFluor antibody test for Sarcocystis neurona requires revalidation. The SarcoFluor, a previously validated immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) for the detection of antibodies specific to S. neurona in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of naturally infected horses was analyzed using recent data and considering a serum:CSF antibody ratio threshold. Utilization of serum and CSF phosphorylated neurofilament heavy protein (pNfH) concentrations in support of an EPM diagnosis was also evaluated. 172 horses were divided into three groups: EPM-positive horses (EPM+, n=42), neurological non-EPM horses (n=74) confirmed with non-EPM neurological diseases (cervical vertebral compressive myelopathy, equine neuroaxonal dystrophy/equine degenerative myeloencephalopathy), and control horses (control, n=56) without neurological signs and neurological abnormalities on histology. Logistic regression was used to compare EPM diagnostic regimens. Specifically, EPM+ horses were compared with neurological non-EPM horses showing neurological signs. To consider diagnostic utility, post-test probabilities were calculated by titer. When differentiating between EPM and other neurological diseases, the combination of serum and CSF SarcoFluor testing added more information to the model accuracy than either test alone. Using serum and CSF for pNfH in support of an EPM diagnosis did not identify cutoffs with statistically significant odds ratios but increased the overall model accuracy when used with the IFAT. Utilization of IFAT titers against S. neurona in serum and CSF result in a high post-test probability of detecting EPM+ horses in a clinical setting.
•Serum titers ≥80 and CSF titers ≥5 were confirmed as useful thresholds for supporting an antemortem EPM diagnosis.•Using serum and CSF titers together better differentiates EPM from other neurological diseases than either test alone.•Study could not conclusively identify optimum serum:CSF titer ratio threshold but ratios ≥32 showed high likelihood of EPM.
Despite the popular use of hummingbird feeders, there are limited studies evaluating the effects of congregation, sharing food resources and increased contact when hummingbirds visit feeders in urban ...landscapes. To evaluate behavioral interactions occurring at feeders, we tagged 230 individuals of two species, Anna's and Allen's Hummingbirds, with passive integrated transponder tags and recorded their visits with RFID transceivers at feeders. For detecting the presence of tagged birds, we developed an RFID equipped feeding station using a commercially available antenna and RFID transceiver. Data recorded included the number of feeder visits, time spent at the feeder, simultaneous feeder visitation by different individuals, and identifying which feeders were most commonly visited by tagged birds. For the study period (September 2016 to March 2018), 118,017 detections were recorded at seven feeding stations located at three California sites. The rate of tagged birds returning to RFID equipped feeders at least once was 61.3% (141/230 birds). Females stayed at feeders longer than males per visit. We identified primary, secondary and tertiary feeders at Sites 2 and 3, according to the frequency of visitation to them, with a mean percentage of 86.9% (SD±19.13) visits to a primary feeder for each tagged hummingbird. During spring and summer, hummingbirds visited feeders most often in morning and evening hours. Feeder visits by males overlapped in time with other males more frequently than other females. The analysis of the contact network at the feeders did not distinguish any significant differences between age or sex. Although most hummingbirds visited the feeders during the daytime, our system recorded night feeder visitations (n = 7 hummingbirds) at one site. This efficient use of RFID technology to characterize feeder visitations and contact networks of hummingbirds in urban habitats could be used in the future to elucidate behaviors, population dynamics and community structure of hummingbirds visiting feeders.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The ability to rapidly detect and respond to wildlife morbidity and mortality events is critical for reducing threats to wildlife populations. Surveillance systems that use pre-diagnostic clinical ...data can contribute to the early detection of wildlife morbidities caused by a multitude of threats, including disease and anthropogenic disturbances. Here, we demonstrate proof of concept for use of a wildlife disease surveillance system, the ‘Wildlife Morbidity and Mortality Event Alert System’, that integrates pre-diagnostic clinical data in near real-time from a network of wildlife rehabilitation organizations, for early and enhanced detection of unusual wildlife morbidity and mortality events. The system classifies clinical pre-diagnostic data into relevant clinical classifications based on a natural language processing algorithm, generating alerts when more than the expected number of cases is recorded across the rehabilitation network. We demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the system in alerting to events associated with both common and emerging diseases. Tapping into this readily available unconventional general surveillance data stream offers added value to existing wildlife disease surveillance programmes through a relatively efficient, low-cost strategy for the early detection of threats.
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