Climate change vulnerability assessment of species Foden, Wendy B.; Young, Bruce E.; Akçakaya, H. Resit ...
Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change,
January/February 2019, Letnik:
10, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies ...evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait‐based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open‐access resources. Because rare, small‐range, and declining‐range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.
This article is categorized under:
Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is becoming a prerequisite for conservation planning, but choosing approaches, methods and data can be challenging. Key to informing such choices is consideration of the full range of climate change pressures and their likely mechanisms of impact on individuals, subpopulations and species. Navigate a sound path through do's and don'ts, and explore resources and future perspectives in this exciting field.
A well known, epidemiologically reproducible risk factor for human carcinomas is the long-term consumption of “red meat” of mammalian origin. Although multiple theories have attempted to explain this ...human-specific association, none have been conclusively proven. We used an improved method to survey common foods for free and glycosidically bound forms of the nonhuman sialic acidN-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc), showing that it is highly and selectively enriched in red meat. The bound form of Neu5Gc is bioavailable, undergoing metabolic incorporation into human tissues, despite being a foreign antigen. Interactions of this antigen with circulating anti-Neu5Gc antibodies could potentially incite inflammation. Indeed, when human-like Neu5Gc-deficient mice were fed bioavailable Neu5Gc and challenged with anti-Neu5Gc antibodies, they developed evidence of systemic inflammation. Such mice are already prone to develop occasional tumors of the liver, an organ that can incorporate dietary Neu5Gc. Neu5Gc-deficient mice immunized against Neu5Gc and fed bioavailable Neu5Gc developed a much higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinomas, with evidence of Neu5Gc accumulation. Taken together, our data provide an unusual mechanistic explanation for the epidemiological association between red meat consumption and carcinoma risk. This mechanism might also contribute to other chronic inflammatory processes epidemiologically associated with red meat consumption.
Mammals rely on nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) from skeletal muscle so that cold temperatures can be tolerated. NST results from activity of the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ pump in skeletal ...muscle, but the mechanisms that regulate this activity are unknown. Here, we develop a single-fiber assay to investigate the role of Ca2+ leak through ryanodine receptor 1 (RyR1) to generate heat at the SR Ca2+ pump in resting muscle. By inhibiting a subpopulation of RyR1s in a single-fiber preparation via targeted delivery of ryanodine through transverse tubules, we achieve in-preparation isolation of RyR1 Ca2+ leak. This maneuver provided a critical increase in signal-to-noise of the SR-temperature-sensitive dye ER thermoyellow fluorescence signal from the fiber to allow detection of SR temperature changes as either RyR1 or SR Ca2+ pump activity was altered. We found that RyR1 Ca2+ leak raises cytosolic Ca2+ in the local vicinity of the SR Ca2+ pump to amplify thermogenesis. Furthermore, gene-dose-dependent increases in RyR1 leak in RYR1 mutant mice result in progressive rises in leak-dependent heat, consistent with raised local Ca2+ at the SR Ca2+ pump via RyR1 Ca2+ leak. We also show that basal RyR Ca2+ leak and the heat generated by the SR Ca2+ pump in the absence of RyR Ca2+ leak is greater in fibers from mice than from toads. The distinct function of RyRs and SR Ca2+ pump in endothermic mammals compared to ectothermic amphibians provides insights into the mechanisms by which mammalian skeletal muscle achieves thermogenesis at rest.
Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, prognostication of SSc-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) remains ...challenging. We conducted a systematic review to identify variables that predict mortality and ILD progression in SSc-ILD.
Three databases were searched to identify all studies relating to predictors of mortality or ILD progression in SSc-ILD. Studies were eligible if they were published in English and included ≥ 10 adults with SSc-ILD. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data from acceptable studies.
The initial search identified 3,145 unique citations. Twenty-seven studies, including six abstracts, met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1,616 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific variables predicted mortality and progression; however, most predictors were identified in only one study. Most studies did not fully account for potential confounders, and none of the studies included a validation cohort. Older age, lower FVC, and lower diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide predicted mortality in more than one study. Male sex, extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan, presence of honeycombing, elevated KL-6 values, and increased alveolar epithelial permeability were identified as predictors of both mortality and ILD progression on unadjusted analysis. The extent of disease on HRCT scan was the only variable that independently predicted both mortality and ILD progression.
Mortality and ILD progression were predicted by several patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific factors. Additional prospective studies are required to validate these preliminary findings and to identify combinations of variables that accurately predict the prognosis of SSc-ILD.
Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease associated with a history of repetitive head impacts (RHI). CTE was described in boxers as early as the 1920s and by the 1950s it ...was widely accepted that hits to the head caused some boxers to become "punch drunk." However, the recent discovery of CTE in American and Australian-rules football, soccer, rugby, ice hockey, and other sports has resulted in renewed debate on whether the relationship between RHI and CTE is causal. Identifying the strength of the evidential relationship between CTE and RHI has implications for public health and medico-legal issues. From a public health perspective, environmentally caused diseases can be mitigated or prevented. Medico-legally, millions of children are exposed to RHI through sports participation; this demographic is too young to legally consent to any potential long-term risks associated with this exposure. To better understand the strength of evidence underlying the possible causal relationship between RHI and CTE, we examined the medical literature through the Bradford Hill criteria for causation. The Bradford Hill criteria, first proposed in 1965 by Sir Austin Bradford Hill, provide a framework to determine if one can justifiably move from an observed association to a verdict of causation. The Bradford Hill criteria include nine viewpoints by which to evaluate human epidemiologic evidence to determine if causation can be deduced: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and analogy. We explored the question of causation by evaluating studies on CTE as it relates to RHI exposure. Through this lens, we found convincing evidence of a causal relationship between RHI and CTE, as well as an absence of evidence-based alternative explanations. By organizing the CTE literature through this framework, we hope to advance the global conversation on CTE mitigation efforts.
Mutations in SNCA, the gene encoding α-synuclein (αSyn), cause familial Parkinson's disease (PD) and aberrant αSyn is a key pathological hallmark of idiopathic PD. This α-synucleinopathy leads to ...mitochondrial dysfunction, which may drive dopaminergic neurodegeneration. PARKIN and PINK1, mutated in autosomal recessive PD, regulate the preferential autophagic clearance of dysfunctional mitochondria ("mitophagy") by inducing ubiquitylation of mitochondrial proteins, a process counteracted by deubiquitylation via USP30. Here we show that loss of USP30 in Usp30 knockout mice protects against behavioral deficits and leads to increased mitophagy, decreased phospho-S129 αSyn, and attenuation of SN dopaminergic neuronal loss induced by αSyn. These observations were recapitulated with a potent, selective, brain-penetrant USP30 inhibitor, MTX115325, with good drug-like properties. These data strongly support further study of USP30 inhibition as a potential disease-modifying therapy for PD.
This retrospective clinical study was performed to determine the suitability and success rate of endodontic treatment of equine incisors presenting with apical and periapical disease.
All horses ...presented to a referral equine dental clinic between March 2013 and December 2019 specifically selected as candidates suitable for endodontic treatment were included in this study.
Initial clinical and radiographic presentation of incisor disorder cases suitable for endodontic treatment were recorded (88 incisors) and follow-up examination for long-term viability (8 months to 5 years) was performed in cases involving 32 incisors in total.
A total of 68 horses with 88 incisors were included in this study for endodontic restorative treatment. Different dental materials were used, with a temporary 3-layered technique using calcium hydroxide apically and temporary cement and resin composite occlusally most commonly used at the first treatment. Complete obturation with resin composite was performed in 48% of the cases requiring second treatments (50 incisors). Follow-up examination involving 32 incisors showed that successful endodontic treatment was achieved in 75% of the teeth treated.
Endodontic treatment of diseased incisors is a viable option in equid patients with a success rate comparable to humans in practice. The use of flowable resin composite as an obturation material has been shown to be successful at either the second treatment or in carefully selected patients at the first treatment.
Connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) is associated with reduced quality of life and poor prognosis. Prior studies have not identified a consistent combination of ...variables that accurately predict prognosis in CTD-ILD. The objective of this study was to identify baseline demographic and clinical characteristics that are associated with progression and mortality in CTD-ILD.
Patients were retrospectively identified from an adult CTD-ILD clinic. The predictive significance of baseline variables on serial forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusion capacity (DLCO), and six-minute walk distance (6MWD) was assessed using linear mixed effects models, and Cox regression analysis was performed to assess impact on mortality.
359 patients were included in the study. Median follow-up time was 4.0 (IQR 1.5-7.6) years. On both unadjusted and multivariable analysis, male sex and South Asian ethnicity were associated with decline in FVC. Male sex, positive smoking history, and diagnosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc) vs. other CTD were associated with decline in DLCO. Male sex and usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern predicted decline in 6MWD. There were 85 (23.7%) deaths. Male sex, older age, First Nations ethnicity, and a diagnosis of systemic sclerosis vs. rheumatoid arthritis were predictors of mortality on unadjusted and multivariable analysis.
Male sex, older age, smoking, South Asian or First Nations ethnicity, and UIP pattern predicted decline in lung function and/or mortality in CTD-ILD. Further longitudinal studies may add to current clinical prediction models for prognostication in CTD-ILD.
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such ...as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision‐making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate‐threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend‐based rather than purely trait‐based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision‐making. Here, we compare the outputs of 12 such climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and we validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results highlight considerable inconsistencies in species risk assignment across all the approaches considered and suggest the majority of the frameworks are poor predictors of risk under climate. Methods that incorporated historic trend data were the only ones to have any validity at predicting distributional trends in subsequent time periods.
ABSTRACT
Background and objective
Despite its clinical and prognostic significance, few studies have evaluated the severity of exertional oxygen desaturation in fibrotic interstitial lung disease ...(ILD). Our objectives were to identify clinical and physiological variables that predict the extent of exertional oxygen desaturation in fibrotic ILD and to quantify the severity of desaturation compared to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
Methods
This retrospective study compared the results of 6‐min walk test (6MWT) performed while breathing room air in fibrotic ILD patients and COPD patients eligible for pulmonary rehabilitation. Outcomes included the oxygen saturation (SpO2) nadir and the change in SpO2 from rest during a 6MWT. Predictor variables were identified on unadjusted analysis, followed by multivariate analysis to identify independent predictors of desaturation.
Results
The study included 134 patients with fibrotic ILD and 274 patients with COPD. The ILD and COPD cohorts had similar age, sex, frequency of major comorbidities, walk distance, baseline SpO2 and baseline Borg dyspnoea scores. DLCO was the strongest predictor of desaturation in both cohorts. Compared to patients with COPD, ILD patients had significantly lower SpO2 nadir values (88.1 ± 6.4 vs 91.0 ± 4.6) and greater decrease in SpO2 from baseline (7.4 ± 5.2 vs 4.5 ± 3.7) after adjusting for demographic features and pulmonary physiology (P < 0.0005), with greater between‐group differences at lower DLCO values.
Conclusion
Patients with fibrotic ILD have greater oxygen desaturation during 6MWT compared to patients with COPD when adjusting for demographic features and pulmonary physiology. These findings suggest the need for disease‐specific studies to evaluate the potential utility of ambulatory oxygen in fibrotic ILD.
See related Editorial
Few studies have evaluated the severity of exertional hypoxemia in fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD). We demonstrate that exertional hypoxemia is more common and severe in fibrotic ILD compared to COPD. More ILD‐specific studies are needed to evaluate the potential utility of ambulatory oxygen in fibrotic ILD.
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