Considerable resources have been invested in ecological restoration projects across the globe to restore ecosystem integrity. Restoration strategies are often diverse and have been met with mixed ...success. In this article, we describe the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) decision‐support models developed by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act Science Integration Team as part of a larger structured decision‐making effort aimed at maximizing natural adult production of Chinook salmon in California's Central Valley, the United States. We then describe the decision‐analytic tools the stakeholder group used to solve the models and explore model results, including stochastic dynamic programming, forward simulation, proportional scoring, relative loss, expected value of perfect information, response profile analyses, and indifference curves. Using these tools, the stakeholder group was able to develop and evaluate restoration strategies for multiple Chinook salmon runs simultaneously, a first for the restoration program. We found that actions targeted at one run were detrimental to others, which was unexpected. Furthermore, information uncovered during this process was used to direct efforts towards targeted research/monitoring to reduce critical uncertainties in salmon demographic rates and make better restoration decisions moving forward. The decision sciences have established a wide range of analytical tools and approaches to simplify complex problems into key components, and we believe the concepts described in this article are of great interest and can be applied by many restoration practitioners that undoubtedly face similar difficulties when implementing restoration strategies for complex systems.
Sturgeons are among the most endangered fishes in the world. Identifying habitat use characteristics to inform restoration projects is crucial for recovery. However, small sample sizes, inadequate ...replication of studies, and limited spatial extents complicate our ability to effectively apply the findings of single studies to endangered species conservation across the larger riverscape. We synthesized information from amphidromous and anadromous sturgeons in North America to identify species-specific knowledge gaps and conduct a quantitative comparison of species–habitat relationships. We provided a qualitative summary of substrate use and synthesized estimates of depth and velocity during spawning and non-spawning activity. Generalized patterns among species were identified, such as spawning in fast water on hard substrate and then using slow water with soft substrate areas when not spawning. We noted species-specific variability during spawning that may be attributed to historical maximum length, egg characteristics, and watershed features. This study provides some of the first estimates of habitat use that can be adapted for many populations. Results can contribute to empirically grounded decision-support tools used to prioritize information needs for recovery.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Objective
Dams and reservoirs can alter juvenile growth and survival of migratory salmonids through several physical and biological mechanisms. Juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that ...are produced upstream of large hydropower dams may have associated passage mortality, but the reservoirs created by these dams can support rapid growth. Characterizing the biotic drivers of growth and mortality in reservoirs may aid in understanding the cumulative effects of river impoundments on migratory salmonid populations. The purpose of this study was to understand how reservoirs facilitate rapid growth in juvenile Chinook Salmon.
Methods
We analyzed stomach contents to determine diet composition throughout the summer and fall. We also recorded prevalence of the parasitic nematode Philonema sp. in the coeloms of fish.
Result
We found that juvenile Chinook Salmon frequently consumed young‐of‐year centrarchids, which likely contributed to rapid growth. Piscivory was highest from July through October and decreased with surface temperature from November through December. Correspondingly, zooplankton and arthropod consumption increased in November and December. Prevalence of visible Philonema sp. infections in the coelom was high (34.6%), negatively associated with time, and nonlinearly associated with fork length.
Conclusion
These findings reveal unique diet patterns and suggest potential parasite‐associated mortality in reservoir‐rearing Chinook Salmon, but more detailed studies across a longer time scale are needed to robustly assess the population‐level effects of this parasite.
Impact statement
Rapid growth of reservoir‐rearing juvenile Chinook Salmon is supported in part by predation on introduced warmwater fishes. Unique diet and growth patterns in reservoir‐rearing juveniles may also be associated with elevated mortality due to a nematode parasite.
Occupancy models are often used to analyze long‐term monitoring data to better understand how and why species redistribute across dynamic landscapes while accounting for incomplete capture. However, ...this approach requires replicate detection/non‐detection data at a sample unit and many long‐term monitoring programs lack temporal replicate surveys. In such cases, it has been suggested that surveying subunits within a larger sample unit may be an efficient substitution (i.e., space‐for‐time substitution). Still, the efficacy of fitting occupancy models using a space‐for‐time substitution has not been fully explored and is likely context dependent. Herein, we fit occupancy models to Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) catch data collected by two different monitoring programs that use the same sampling gear in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta, USA. We demonstrate how our inferences concerning the distribution of these species changes when using a space‐for‐time substitution. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space‐for‐time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of considering how the unique characteristics of monitoring programs influences inferences, which has broad implications for how to appropriately leverage existing long‐term monitoring data to understand the distribution of species.
We demonstrate how inferences concerning the distribution of pelagic fishes change when using a space‐for‐time substitution and occupancy models. Specifically, we found the probability that a sample unit was occupied was much greater when using a space‐for‐time substitution, presumably due to the change in the spatial scale of our inferences. Furthermore, we observed that as the spatial scale of our inferences increased, our ability to detect environmental effects on system dynamics was obscured, which we suspect is related to the tradeoffs associated with spatial grain and extent.
This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with ...complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples.Additional resources for this book can be found at:www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement.
•We illustrate how estimates from disjunct monitoring data can be used to inform adaptive water management.•Larger may flow pulses than are currently being allocated are projected to be optimal for ...increasing Chinook salmon smolt survival through the south delta.•Water temperature and smolt outmigration timing drive optimal water distribution but sensitivity analysis indicates water allocation changes little with temperature uncertainty indicating future monitoring should focus on outmigration timing.•We suggest using current data to start informing decisions for complex problems despite far from perfect knowledge about system responses.
Monitoring is usually among the first actions taken to help inform recovery planning for declining species, but these data are rarely used formally to inform conservation decision making. For example, Central Valley Chinook salmon were once abundant, but anthropogenic activities have led to widespread habitat loss and degradation resulting in significant population declines. Monitoring data suggest survival through the southern Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, in particular, may be a limiting factor for juvenile Chinook salmon outmigrating from the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. However, survival and routing monitoring data have not been formally used to inform water management in a decision analytic framework. Here, we illustrate how estimates derived from disjunct monitoring data can be used to inform water management and as a basis for adaptively managing flows. We aggregated a meta-analysis of Chinook salmon smolt survival and routing estimates through the south Delta with other sources of data to develop a survival and routing simulation model to estimate optimal flows for the San Joaquin River during smolt outmigration from February–May. We found that large flow pulses at predictable times during the spring are projected to be optimal for increasing Chinook salmon smolt survival to the San Francisco Bay and that optimal scenarios differed somewhat with water year type. Sensitivity analysis revealed temperature and smolt outmigration timing are driving optimal pulse distribution and that water allocation changes little with parameter uncertainty. This case study highlights the utility of the decision-analytic framework for solving conservation problems.
OBJECTIVETo examine the internal consistency and distribution of the Yale Global Tic Severity Scale (YGTSS) scores to inform modification of the measure.
METHODSThis cross-sectional study included ...617 participants with a tic disorder (516 children and 101 adults), who completed an age-appropriate diagnostic interview and the YGTSS to evaluate tic symptom severity. The distributions of scores on YGTSS dimensions were evaluated for normality and skewness. For dimensions that were skewed across motor and phonic tics, a modified Delphi consensus process was used to revise selected anchor points.
RESULTSChildren and adults had similar clinical characteristics, including tic symptom severity. All participants were examined together. Strong internal consistency was identified for the YGTSS Motor Tic score (α = 0.80), YGTSS Phonic Tic score (α = 0.87), and YGTSS Total Tic score (α = 0.82). The YGTSS Total Tic and Impairment scores exhibited relatively normal distributions. Several subscales and individual item scales departed from a normal distribution. Higher scores were more often used on the Motor Tic Number, Frequency, and Intensity dimensions and the Phonic Tic Frequency dimension. By contrast, lower scores were more often used on Motor Tic Complexity and Interference, and Phonic Tic Number, Intensity, Complexity, and Interference.
CONCLUSIONSThe YGTSS exhibits good internal consistency across children and adults. The parallel findings across Motor and Phonic Frequency, Complexity, and Interference dimensions prompted minor revisions to the anchor point description to promote use of the full range of scores in each dimension. Specific minor revisions to the YGTSS Phonic Tic Symptom Checklist were also proposed.
Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) rearing in lakes and reservoirs above dams have been known to become heavily infected with an ectoparasitic copepod (Salmincola californiensis). Little is known ...about the factors that affect the parasite infection prevalence and intensity. However, previous research suggests that the parasite may negatively affect the fitness and survival of the host fish. The effect of water temperature, confinement and the density of the free‐swimming infectious stage of S. californiensis, the copepodid, on infection prevalence and intensity was evaluated by experimentally exposing juvenile Chinook Salmon (O. tshawytscha). Infection rates observed in wild populations were achieved under warm water (15–16°C) and high copepodid density (150–300/L) treatment conditions. Infection prevalence and intensity were also significantly higher in larger fish. During the infection experiment, 4.5% of infected fish died within 54 days with mortality significantly related to copepod infection intensity. The potential for autoinfection was compared to cross‐infection by cohabitation of infected fish with naïve fish. Previously infected fish had significantly greater infection intensity compared with naïve fish, indicating that infected fish can be reinfected and that they may be more susceptible than naïve fish.
Management of mixed-stock Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) fisheries requires balancing fishery access and conservation of vulnerable stocks. Although accurate, timely estimates of ...stock-specific harvest are crucial in achieving competing objectives, limited numbers of stock assignments (e.g., tag recoveries) can diminish the utility of estimates. We used a flexible simulation approach, applied to both a theoretical and real-world fishery case study, to compare the performance of competing monitoring alternatives and estimators for harvest. We sought to improve accuracy for point estimates of harvest and harvest trajectories over time. Bayesian models provided similarly accurate point estimates to existing models at high levels of data aggregation, generally improved estimates of harvest trajectories at intermediate aggregation, and reliable estimates of uncertainty. Incorporation of time-lagged prior information inconsistently improved estimates of harvest trajectories. Among monitoring alternatives yielding equal increases (33%) in coded wire tag recoveries, increasing tagging rates resulted in the greatest decrease in estimate uncertainty for target stocks (37.5% to 45.3%). Variable performances of mixed-stock harvest estimators suggest their use should considered on a stock- and fishery-specific basis, potentially using a simulation-based approach.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make ...recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010–2011 to 0.86 in 2012–2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data.
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