The rapid spread of the SARS-COV-2 delta variant in the UK despite high vaccination coverage will inevitably accelerate when social restrictions end unless testing and contact tracing become much ...more effective. To minimize further social and economic damage, the effect on R of introducing weekly population testing as social restrictions are relaxed should be evaluated. The large increase in testing capacity required can be achieved with self-taken saliva samples analysed by RT-LAMP in local testing facilities. The costs and effectiveness can be evaluated in whole-city demonstration studies. A local population register in each city or district is essential to issue weekly invitations, manage sample collection, monitor results and achieve rapid notification of households and other contacts when a test is positive. In the UK, weekly test invitations should be managed, like vaccination invitations, by the NHS, with social and financial support for quarantined households to make self-isolation acceptable. A framework for effective population testing that had been established and evaluated during this pandemic could be rapidly reinstated to suppress the next pandemic while vaccines for a new and perhaps more deadly virus are developed and rolled out.
Centrally organised facilities with the capacity to test the entire UK population weekly (in 6 days at 10 million tests per day) can be made available much more quickly and cheaply than a vaccine, ...probably within weeks. Only laboratories that do PCR routinely would participate, subject to central quality control and at cost price. Contacts of positive people who test negative could choose continued home quarantine or, at little extra risk, choose to join a group of up to 10 test-negative contacts (usually with other family members).
By the early 1980s, epidemiologists had identified many important causes of cancer. They had also proposed the 'multi-stage' model of cancer, although none of the hypothesized events in human ...carcinogenesis had then been identified. The remarkable advances in cell and molecular biology over the past two decades have transformed the scope and methods of cancer epidemiology. There have been a few new discoveries based purely on traditional methods, and many long-suspected minor risks have been estimated more precisely. But modern epidemiological studies often depend on genetic, biochemical or viral assays that had not been developed 20 years ago.
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Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Young age at first sexual intercourse (AFI) is an important risk factor for cervical cancer, but no simple statistical model of its influence has been established. We investigated the relationship ...between risk of cervical carcinoma and time since first intercourse using data on monogamous women (5,074 cases and 16,137 controls) from the International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from pooled data on 20 studies using conditional logistic regression. The OR for invasive cervical carcinoma is approximately proportional to the square of time since first intercourse (exponent 1.95, 95% CI: 1.76–2.15) up to age 45. First cervical infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) often occurs soon after first sexual intercourse, so early AFI is a reasonable proxy for early age at first exposure to HPV. In addition, age‐specific incidence rates of cervical cancer in unscreened populations remain fairly constant above age 45. Cervical cancer thus resembles other cancers caused by strong early‐stage carcinogens, with incidence rates proportional to a power of time since first exposure and also resembles cancers of the breast and other hormone‐dependent epithelia, where a similar flattening of age‐specific incidence rates is seen at the time menopausal changes start. Taken together, these observations suggest that HPV vaccination may prevent the majority of cervical cancers by delaying HPV infection without necessarily providing lifetime protection against HPV.
Summary Background In four randomised trials, human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening for cervical cancer was compared with cytology-based cervical screening, and precursors of cancer were the ...endpoint in every trial. However, direct estimates are missing of the relative efficacy of HPV-based versus cytology-based screening for prevention of invasive cancer in women who undergo regular screening, of modifiers (eg, age) of this relative efficacy, and of the duration of protection. We did a follow-up study of the four randomised trials to investigate these outcomes. Methods 176 464 women aged 20–64 years were randomly assigned to HPV-based (experimental arm) or cytology-based (control arm) screening in Sweden (Swedescreen), the Netherlands (POBASCAM), England (ARTISTIC), and Italy (NTCC). We followed up these women for a median of 6·5 years (1 214 415 person-years) and identified 107 invasive cervical carcinomas by linkage with screening, pathology, and cancer registries, by masked review of histological specimens, or from reports. Cumulative and study-adjusted rate ratios (experimental vs control) were calculated for incidence of invasive cervical carcinoma. Findings The rate ratio for invasive cervical carcinoma among all women from recruitment to end of follow-up was 0·60 (95% CI 0·40–0·89), with no heterogeneity between studies (p=0·52). Detection of invasive cervical carcinoma was similar between screening methods during the first 2·5 years of follow-up (0·79, 0·46–1·36) but was significantly lower in the experimental arm thereafter (0·45, 0·25–0·81). In women with a negative screening test at entry, the rate ratio was 0·30 (0·15–0·60). The cumulative incidence of invasive cervical carcinoma in women with negative entry tests was 4·6 per 105 (1·1–12·1) and 8·7 per 105 (3·3–18·6) at 3·5 and 5·5 years, respectively, in the experimental arm, and 15·4 per 105 (7·9–27·0) and 36·0 per 105 (23·2–53·5), respectively, in the control arm. Rate ratios did not differ by cancer stage, but were lower for adenocarcinoma (0·31, 0·14–0·69) than for squamous-cell carcinoma (0·78, 0·49–1·25). The rate ratio was lowest in women aged 30–34 years (0·36, 0·14–0·94). Interpretation HPV-based screening provides 60–70% greater protection against invasive cervical carcinomas compared with cytology. Data of large-scale randomised trials support initiation of HPV-based screening from age 30 years and extension of screening intervals to at least 5 years. Funding European Union, Belgian Foundation Against Cancer, KCE-Centre d'Expertise, IARC, The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, the Italian Ministry of Health.
The National Screening Committee (NSC) based its recommendation that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing should replace cytology in primary cervical screening largely on the 2009 follow-up results of ...the ARTISTIC trial (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology). The NSC must now decide on screening intervals and triage policy. Options include extending the screening interval up to 10 years for human papillomavirus-negative (HPV-) women, delaying recall for human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) women with normal cytology (as their infections are usually transient), and basing triage on full HPV typing.
In ARTISTIC, 24,510 women were recruited who were attending routine cervical cytology in Greater Manchester in 2001-3. The women were randomly allocated between revealing and concealing their HPV test results and were recalled every 3 years. After 2009, the women returned to routine cytological screening with recall every 3 years for those aged < 50 years, and every 5 years for those aged 50-64 years. We have followed the cohort to 2015 through national cancer registration for CIN3 (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3) and cancer, and through linkage to the cervical screening call-recall system to obtain lifetime cytology records.
The analysis comprised 24,496 women at round 1 and 13,591 women at round 2 (which was 30-48 months later). Follow-up via local histology laboratories and national cancer registration identified 505 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN3+) (including 22 invasive cervical cancers). The cumulative CIN3+ risk 10 years after a negative HPV test 0.31%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18% to 0.49%, in the revealed arm was similar to that 3 years after negative cytology (0.30%, 95% CI 0.23% to 0.41%, in the concealed arm) and fell sharply with age, from 1.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 1.8%) in those women aged < 25 years to 0.08% (95% CI 0.03% to 0.20%) in those women aged > 50 years. The 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk following a new HPV infection at round 2 was 3.4% (95% CI 2.1% to 5.4%). The highest risks were associated with type-specific persistent infections that, overall, resulted in a 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk of 20.4% (95% CI 15.6% to 26.4%).
We found a similar level of protection 10 years after a negative HPV test and 3 years after negative cytology. These data support a considerably longer screening interval after a negative HPV test than after a negative cytology test. About three-quarters of women with HPV infection and normal cytology clear their infections within about 3 years. Their risk of CIN3+ within this time frame is low (1.5%), suggesting that the current policy of annual repeat testing and referral after 2 years may be unnecessarily cautious. Approximately 40% of women who remained HPV+ had cleared their initial infection and acquired a new HPV type. The cumulative CIN3+ risks in women with type-specific persistent infections are about six times higher than in women with new infections. Triage strategies based on HPV persistence would, therefore, reduce unnecessary referral of women with new (and largely transient) infections. HPV assays that identify HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 in addition to 16 and 18 could be useful in triage as well as in primary HPV testing. Similar results in recent routine HPV screening suggest that our results are generalisable despite changes in cytology and HPV assay methods. We are continuing to follow the ARTISTIC cohort into the new era of primary HPV screening. Future work will focus on the implications of more sensitive HPV testing for primary HPV screening policy and triage of HPV-positive women. Our results suggest that a more sensitive test is needed to detect occult CIN3 at high risk of progression to cancer, but this would substantially increase the overall HPV detection rate. Tests such as DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) methylation for distinguishing HPV infection from neoplasia will be evaluated on stored samples and on further samples now being collected from women in the cohort who are still being screened.
This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in
; Vol. 23, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Summary Background The effects of extra-pleural pneumonectomy (EPP) on survival and quality of life in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma have, to our knowledge, not been assessed in a ...randomised trial. We aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of patients who were randomly assigned to EPP or no EPP in the context of trimodal therapy in the Mesothelioma and Radical Surgery (MARS) feasibility study. Methods MARS was a multicentre randomised controlled trial in 12 UK hospitals. Patients aged 18 years or older who had pathologically confirmed mesothelioma and were deemed fit enough to undergo trimodal therapy were included. In a prerandomisation registration phase, all patients underwent induction platinum-based chemotherapy followed by clinical review. After further consent, patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to EPP followed by postoperative hemithorax irradiation or to no EPP. Randomisation was done centrally with computer-generated permuted blocks stratified by surgical centre. The main endpoints were feasibility of randomly assigning 50 patients in 1 year (results detailed in another report), proportion randomised who received treatment, proportion eligible (registered) who proceeded to randomisation, perioperative mortality, and quality of life. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. This is the principal report of the MARS study; all patients have been recruited. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN95583524. Findings Between Oct 1, 2005, and Nov 3, 2008, 112 patients were registered and 50 were subsequently randomly assigned: 24 to EPP and 26 to no EPP. The main reasons for not proceeding to randomisation were disease progression (33 patients), inoperability (five patients), and patient choice (19 patients). EPP was completed satisfactorily in 16 of 24 patients assigned to EPP; in five patients EPP was not started and in three patients it was abandoned. Two patients in the EPP group died within 30 days and a further patient died without leaving hospital. One patient in the no EPP group died perioperatively after receiving EPP off trial in a non-MARS centre. The hazard ratio HR for overall survival between the EPP and no EPP groups was 1·90 (95% CI 0·92–3·93; exact p=0·082), and after adjustment for sex, histological subtype, stage, and age at randomisation the HR was 2·75 (1·21–6·26; p=0·016). Median survival was 14·4 months (5·3–18·7) for the EPP group and 19·5 months (13·4 to time not yet reached) for the no EPP group. Of the 49 randomly assigned patients who consented to quality of life assessment (EPP n=23; no EPP n=26), 12 patients in the EPP group and 19 in the no EPP group completed the quality of life questionnaires. Although median quality of life scores were lower in the EPP group than the no EPP group, no significant differences between groups were reported in the quality of life analyses. There were ten serious adverse events reported in the EPP group and two in the no EPP group. Interpretation In view of the high morbidity associated with EPP in this trial and in other non-randomised studies a larger study is not feasible. These data, although limited, suggest that radical surgery in the form of EPP within trimodal therapy offers no benefit and possibly harms patients. Funding Cancer Research UK ( CRUK/04/003 ), the June Hancock Mesothelioma Research Fund, and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust.
The ARTISTIC (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology) trial originally reported after two rounds of primary cervical screening with human papillomavirus (HPV). Extended follow-up of the ...randomised trial cohort through a third round could provide valuable insight into the duration of protection of a negative HPV test, which could allow extended screening intervals. If HPV primary screening is to be considered in the national programme, then determining its cost-effectiveness is key, and a detailed economic analysis using ARTISTIC data is needed.
(1) To determine the round 3 and cumulative rates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse (2+) and CIN grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) between the revealed and concealed arms of ARTISTIC after three screening rounds over 6 years. (2) To compare the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ over three screening rounds following negative screening cytology with that following negative baseline HPV. (3) To determine whether or not HPV screening could safely extend the screening interval from 3 to 6 years. (4) To study the potential clinical utility of an increased cut-off of 2 relative light unit/mean control (RLU/Co) for Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) and HPV genotyping in primary cervical screening. (5) To determine the potential impact of HPV vaccination with Cervarix™ in terms of preventing abnormal cytology and CIN2+. (6) To determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening compared with current practice using cervical cytology in England.
The ARTISTIC study cohort was recalled for a third round of screening 3 years after round 2 and 6 years following their enrolment to the study. Both arms of the original trial used a single protocol during round 3.
ARTISTIC study cohort undergoing cervical screening in primary care in Greater Manchester, UK.
Between July 2007 and September 2009, 8873 women participated in round 3; 6337 had been screened in round 2 and 2536 had not been screened since round 1.
All women underwent liquid-based cytology and HPV testing and genotyping. Colposcopy was offered to women with moderate dyskaryosis or worse and with HPV-positive mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes. Women with negative cytology or HPV-negative mild dyskaryosis/borderline changes were returned to routine recall.
Principal outcomes were cumulative rates of CIN2+ over three screening rounds by cytology and HPV status at entry; HPV type specific rates of CIN2+; effect of age on outcomes correlated with cytology and HPV status; comparison of HC2 cut-off RLU/Co of both 1 and 2; and cost-effectiveness of HPV primary screening.
The median duration of follow-up was 72.7 months in round 3. Over the three screening rounds, there was no significant difference in CIN2+ odds ratio (OR): 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89 to 1.26, p = 0.5) or CIN3+ (OR: 0.90, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.14, p = 0.4) rates between the trial arms (revealed vs. concealed). Overall, 16% of women were HC2 positive at entry, decreasing from 40% in women aged 20-24 years to around 7% in women aged over 50 years. Abnormal cytology rates at entry were 13% for borderline+ and 2% for moderate+ cytology. Following positive cytology at entry, the cumulative rate of CIN2+ was 20.5%, and was 20.1% following a HPV-positive result at baseline. The cumulative CIN2+ rate for women who were HPV negative at baseline was only 0.87% (95% CI 0.70% to 1.06%) after three rounds of screening, significantly lower than that for women with negative cytology, which was 1.41% (95% CI 1.19% to 1.65%). Women who were HPV negative at baseline had similar protection from CIN2+ after 6 years as women who were cytology negative at baseline after 3 years. Women who were HPV positive/cytology negative at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate at 6 years of 7.7%, significantly higher than that for women who were cytology positive/HPV negative (3.2%). Women who were HPV type 16 positive at baseline had a cumulative CIN2+ rate over three rounds of 43.6% compared with 20.1% for any HPV-positive test. Using a HC2 cut-off of RLU/Co ≥ 2 would maintain acceptable sensitivity and result in 16% fewer HPV-positive results. Typing data suggested that around 55-60% of high-grade cytology and CIN2+, but less than 25% of low-grade cytology, would be prevented by HPV vaccine given current rates of coverage in the UK national programme. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, most of the primary HPV strategies examined where HPV was used as the sole primary test were cost saving in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts under baseline cost assumptions, with a 7-18% reduction in annual screening-associated costs in unvaccinated cohorts and a 9-22% reduction for vaccinated cohorts. Utilising partial genotyping at the primary screening stage to identify women with HPV 16/18 and referring them to colposcopy was the most effective strategy (barring co-testing, which is significantly more costly than any other strategies considered), resulting in 83 additional life-years per 100,000 women for unvaccinated women when compared with current practice, and similar life-years saved compared with current practice for vaccinated women. In unvaccinated cohorts, however, this genotyping strategy is predicted to result in a 20% increase in the number of colposcopies performed in England, although in vaccinated cohorts the number of colposcopy referrals was predicted to be lower than in current practice. For all strategies in which HPV is used as the sole primary screening test, decreasing the follow-up interval for intermediate-risk women from 24 to 12 months increased the overall effectiveness of primary HPV screening. In exploratory analysis, strategies for which cytology screening was retained until either age 30 or 35 years, and for which HPV testing was used at older ages, were predicted to be of higher costs and intermediate effectiveness than those associated with full implementation of primary HPV screening from age 25 years. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution as it depends on assumptions made about screening behaviour and compliance with recommendations at the 'switch over' point.
HPV testing as an initial screen was significantly more protective over three rounds (6 years) than the current practice of cytology and the use of primary HPV screening could allow a safe lengthening of the screening interval. A substantial decrease in high-grade cytology and CIN2+ can be expected as a consequence of the HPV vaccination programme. A HC2 cut-off of 2RLU/Co instead of the manufacturer's recommended cut-off of 1 would be clinically beneficial in terms of an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity. Modelled analysis predicts that primary HPV screening would be both more effective and cost saving compared with current practice with cervical cytology for a number of potential strategies in both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. Compliance with surveillance and optimal management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women after primary HPV screening is of key importance. Limitations of the economic investigation included the need to make assumptions around compliance with screening attendance and follow-up for longer screening intervals in the future, assumptions regarding maintenance of current uptake vaccination in the future, and assumptions regarding the stability of cost of HPV and cytology tests in the future. Detailed sensitivity analysis across a range of possible assumptions was conducted to address these issues. This study and the economic evaluation lend support to convert from cytology to HPV-based screening. Future work should include researching (i) the attitudes of women who test HPV positive/cytology negative, (ii) the value of complementary biomarkers and (iii) activities relevant to primary HPV screening in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations from the point of view of QALY assessment.
Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25417821.
Randomised controlled trials demonstrating improved longevity are needed to justify high-dose vitamin D supplementation for older populations.
To demonstrate the feasibility of a large trial (
≈ ...20,000) of high-dose vitamin D in people aged 65-84 years through general practitioner (GP) practices, and to cluster randomise participating practices between open-label and double-blind randomisation to compare effects on recruitment, compliance and contamination.
Twenty GP practices were randomised in matched pairs between open-label and double-blind allocation. Within each practice, patients were individually randomised to vitamin D or control (i.e. no treatment or placebo). Participants were invited to attend their GP practice to provide a blood sample and complete a lifestyle questionnaire at recruitment and again at 2 years. Randomisation by telephone followed receipt of a serum corrected calcium assay confirming eligibility (< 2.65 nmol/l). Treatment compliance was reported by quarterly follow-up forms sent and returned by e-mail or post (participant choice). GP visits and infections were abstracted from GP records. Hospital attendances, cancer diagnoses and deaths were ascertained by linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and national registration through NHS Digital.
GP practices in England.
Recruitment opened in October 2013 and closed in January 2015. A total of 1615 registered patients aged 65-84 years were randomised: 407 to vitamin D and 421 to no treatment in open practices; 395 to vitamin D and 392 to placebo in blind practices.
There was a 24-month treatment period: 12 monthly doses (100,000 IU of vitamin D
or placebo as 5 ml oily solution) were posted after randomisation and at 1 year (100,000 IU per month corresponds to 3300 IU per day). Reminders were sent monthly by e-mail, text message or post.
Recruitment, compliance, contamination and change in circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D 25(OH)D from baseline to 2 years.
Participation rates (randomised/invited) were 15.0% in open practices and 13.4% in double-blind practices (
= 0.7). The proportion still taking study medication at 2 years was 91.2% in open practices and 89.2% in double-blind practices (
= 0.4). The proportion of control participants taking > 400 IU vitamin D per day at 2 years was 5.0% in open practices and 4.8% in double-blind practices. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 51.5 nmol/l 95% confidence interval (CI) 50.2 to 52.8 nmol/l with 82.6% of participants < 75 nmol/l at baseline. At 2 years, this increased to 109.6 nmol/l (95% CI 107.1 to 112.1 nmol/l) with 12.0% < 75 nmol/l in those allocated to vitamin D and was unaltered at 51.8 nmol/l (95% CI 49.8 to 53.8 nmol/l) in those allocated to no vitamin D (no treatment or placebo).
A trial could recruit 20,000 participants aged 65-84 years through 200 GP practices over 2 years. Approximately 80% would be expected to adhere to allocated treatment (vitamin D or placebo) for 5 years. The trial could be conducted entirely by e-mail in participants aged < 80 years, but some participants aged 80-84 years would require postal follow-up. Recruitment and treatment compliance would be similar and contamination (self-administration of vitamin D) would be minimal, whether control participants are randomised openly to no treatment with no contact during the trial or randomised double-blind to placebo with monthly reminders.
Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN46328341 and EudraCT database 2011-003699-34.
This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in
; Vol. 24, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
On November 9 and 10, 2015, the International Conference on Mesothelioma in Populations Exposed to Naturally Occurring Asbestiform Fibers was held at the University of Hawaii Cancer Center in ...Honolulu, Hawaii. The meeting was cosponsored by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, and the agenda was designed with significant input from staff at the U.S. National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. A multidisciplinary group of participants presented updates reflecting a range of disciplinary perspectives, including mineralogy, geology, epidemiology, toxicology, biochemistry, molecular biology, genetics, public health, and clinical oncology. The group identified knowledge gaps that are barriers to preventing and treating malignant mesothelioma (MM) and the required next steps to address barriers. This manuscript reports the group’s efforts and focus on strategies to limit risk to the population and reduce the incidence of MM. Four main topics were explored: genetic risk, environmental exposure, biomarkers, and clinical interventions. Genetics plays a critical role in MM when the disease occurs in carriers of germline BRCA1 associated protein 1 mutations. Moreover, it appears likely that, in addition to BRCA1 associated protein 1, other yet unknown genetic variants may also influence the individual risk for development of MM, especially after exposure to asbestos and related mineral fibers. MM is an almost entirely preventable malignancy as it is most often caused by exposure to commercial asbestos or mineral fibers with asbestos-like health effects, such as erionite. In the past in North America and in Europe, the most prominent source of exposure was related to occupation. Present regulations have reduced occupational exposure in these countries; however, some people continue to be exposed to previously installed asbestos in older construction and other settings. Moreover, an increasing number of people are being exposed in rural areas that contain noncommercial asbestos, erionite, and other mineral fibers in soil or rock (termed naturally occurring asbestos NOA) and are being developed. Public health authorities, scientists, residents, and other affected groups must work together in the areas where exposure to asbestos, including NOA, has been documented in the environment to mitigate or reduce this exposure. Although a blood biomarker validated to be effective for use in screening and identifying MM at an early stage in asbestos/NOA-exposed populations is not currently available, novel biomarkers presented at the meeting, such as high mobility group box 1 and fibulin-3, are promising. There was general agreement that current treatment for MM, which is based on surgery and standard chemotherapy, has a modest effect on the overall survival (OS), which remains dismal. Additionally, although much needed novel therapeutic approaches for MM are being developed and explored in clinical trials, there is a critical need to invest in prevention research, in which there is a great opportunity to reduce the incidence and mortality from MM.
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