Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water turns unstable at the surface as temperatures increase with solar luminosity. Whether a large ...increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 could also destroy the habitability of water-rich planets has remained unclear. Here we show with three-dimensional aqua-planet simulations that CO2-induced forcing as readily destabilizes the climate as does solar forcing. The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K. The upper atmosphere is considerably moister in this warm state than in the reference climate, implying that the planet would be subject to substantial loss of water to space. For some elevated CO2 or solar forcings, we find both cold and warm equilibrium states, implying that the climate transition cannot be reversed by removing the additional forcing.
The discovery of planets orbiting double stars at close distances has sparked increasing scientific interest in determining whether Earth-analogues can remain habitable in such environments and how ...their atmospheric dynamics is influenced by the rapidly changing insolation. In this work we present results of the first three-dimensional numerical experiments of a water-rich planet orbiting a double star. We find that the periodic forcing of the atmosphere has a noticeable impact on the planet's climate. Signatures of the forcing frequencies related to the planet's as well as to the binary's orbital periods are present in a variety of climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation, making the interpretation of potential observables challenging. However, for Earth-like greenhouse gas concentrations, the variable forcing does not change the range of insolation values allowing for habitable climates substantially.
Deep convection can exhibit a large diversity of spatial organizations along the equator. The form of organization may affect the tropical large-scale motions of the atmosphere, but observational ...evidence is currently missing. Here we show using observations that when convection along the equator is more clustered in the zonal direction, the tropical rain belt widens in the meridional direction, and exhibits a double-peak structure. About half of the influence of the convective clustering on the width of the rain belt is associated with the annual cycle and the other half is associated with unforced climate variability. Idealized climate model experiments show that the zonal convective clustering alone can explain the observed behavior and that the behavior can be explained with an energetic framework. This demonstrates that the representation of equatorial convective clustering is important for modeling the tropical rainfall distribution accurately.
A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical ...processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low‐level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two‐layer model.
Key Points
An updated version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2) is presented
The model includes both code corrections and parameterization improvements
Despite this, the model maintains an equilibrium climate sensitivity, which rises with warming
Abstract
The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology ...applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate.
The Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an ...idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique among intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud‐resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self‐aggregation in large domains and agree that self‐aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self‐aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than unaggregated simulations.
Plain Language Summary
This study investigates tropical clouds and climate using results from more than 30 different numerical models set up in a simplified framework. The data set of model simulations is unique in that it includes a wide range of model types configured in a consistent manner. We address some of the biggest open questions in climate science, including how cloud properties change with warming and the role that the tendency of clouds to form clusters plays in determining the average climate and how climate changes. While there are large differences in how the different models simulate average temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models, the amount of high clouds decreases as climate warms. Nearly all models simulate a tendency for clouds to cluster together. There is agreement that when the clouds are clustered, the atmosphere is drier with fewer clouds overall. We do not find a conclusive result for how cloud clustering changes as the climate warms.
Key Points
Temperature, humidity, and clouds in radiative‐convective equilibrium vary substantially across models
Models agree that self‐aggregation dries the atmosphere and reduces high cloudiness
There is no consistency in how self‐aggregation depends on warming
Convective clustering, the spatial organization of tropical deep convection, can manifest itself in two ways: through a decrease in the total area covered by convection and/or through a decrease in ...the number of convective areas. Much of our current understanding of convective clustering comes from simulations in idealized radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) configurations. In these simulations the two forms of convective clustering tend to covary, and their individual effects on the climate are thus hard to disentangle. This study shows that in aquaplanet simulations with more realistic boundary conditions, such as meridional gradients of surface temperature and rotational forces, the two aspects of convective clustering are not equivalent and are associated with different impacts on the large‐scale climate. For instance, reducing the convective area in the equatorial region in the aquaplanet simulations results in broader meridional humidity and rain distributions and in lower tropospheric temperatures throughout the tropics. By contrast, the number of convective regions primarily impacts the zonal variance of humidity‐related quantities in the aquaplanet simulations, as the distribution of convective regions affects the size of the subsidence regions and thereby the moistening influence of convective regions. The aquaplanet simulations confirm many other qualitative results from RCE simulations, such as a reduction of equatorial tropospheric humidity when the area covered by convection diminishes.
Plain Language Summary
Strong precipitation events in Earth's tropics are associated with regions of strong upward motions that can extend over the entire depth of the troposphere. These regions of strong upward motions are not uniformly distributed throughout the tropics but occur mostly as clusters of various shapes and sizes, typically within a narrow zonal band. We show here with idealized climate simulations that different forms of spatial organization of the regions of upward motions have distinct impacts on the climate, highlighting the need to consider several metrics to characterize the organization. For instance, reducing the area covered by upward motions close to the equator results in broader meridional humidity and rain distributions. By contrast, the number of regions of upward motion primarily impacts the zonal variance of humidity‐related quantities.
Key Points
The impact of convective clustering on tropical climate depends on both the total convecting area and on the number of convective clusters
The total convective area affects the meridional distribution of water; the number of convective regions affects the zonal variance of water
Many findings from radiative convective equilibrium studies are confirmed in aquaplanet simulations with realistic sea surface temperatures
A major bias in tropical precipitation over the Pacific in climate simulations stems from the models’ tendency to produce two strong distinct intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs) too often. ...Several mechanisms have been proposed that may contribute to the emergence of two ITCZs, but current theories cannot fully explain the bias. This problem is tackled by investigating how the interaction between atmospheric cloud-radiative effects (ACREs) and the large-scale circulation influences the ITCZ position in an atmospheric general circulation model. Simulations are performed in an idealized aquaplanet setup and the longwave and shortwave ACREs are turned off individually or jointly. The low-level moist static energy (MSE) is shown to be a good predictor of the ITCZ position. Therefore, a mechanism is proposed that explains the changes in MSE and thus ITCZ position due to ACREs consistently across simulations. The mechanism implies that the ITCZ moves equatorward if the Hadley circulation strengthens because of the increased upgradient advection of low-level MSE off the equator. The longwave ACRE increases the meridional heating gradient in the tropics and as a response the Hadley circulation strengthens and the ITCZ moves equatorward. The shortwave ACRE has the opposite effect. The total ACRE pulls the ITCZ equatorward. This mechanism is discussed in other frameworks involving convective available potential energy, gross moist stability, and the energy flux equator. It is thus shown that the response of the large-scale circulation to the shortwave and longwave ACREs is a fundamental driver of changes in the ITCZ position.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Corneal cross-linking (CXL) is an increasingly used treatment technique for stabilizing the cornea in keratoconus. Cross-linking (polymerization) between collagen fibrils is induced by riboflavin ...(vitamin B2) and ultraviolet light (365 nm). Although reported to reach a constant value at higher riboflavin concentrations, the Lambert-Beer law predicts a linear increase in the absorption coefficient. This work was carried out to determine absorption behavior at different riboflavin concentrations and to further investigate the purported plateau absorption coefficient value of riboflavin and to identify possible bleaching effects.
The Lambert-Beer law was used to calculate the absorption coefficient at various riboflavin concentrations. The following investigated concentrations of riboflavin solutions were prepared using a mixture of 0.5% riboflavin and 20% Dextran T500 dissolved in 0.9% sodium chloride solution: 0%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.5%, and were investigated with and without aperture plate implementation. An additional test series measured the transmitted power at selected riboflavin concentrations over time.
In diluted solutions, a linear correlation exists between the absorption coefficient and riboflavin concentration. The absorption coefficient reaches a plateau, but this occurs at a higher riboflavin concentration (0.1%) than previously reported (just above 0.04%). Transmitted light power increases over time, indicating a bleaching effect of riboflavin.
The riboflavin concentration can be effectively varied as a treatment parameter in a considerably broader range than previously thought.
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