Za presojo učinkov integracijskih in reformnih procesov na kmetijske trge smo razvili model dinamičnega rekurzivnega sintetičnega delnega ravnovesja. Serije posameznih enačb predstavljajo trge za ...žita in živinorejo ter tvorijo medsebojno povezan sistem, v katerem iščemo rešitev za vsak proizvod skozi bilanco zunanje trgovine. Domače cene so preko enačb prenosa cen vezane na reprezentativne cene v Evropski uniji (EU) in skupaj z aktualnimi instrumenti kmetijske politike določajo raven proizvodnje in porabe posameznih proizvodov. Parametri v enačbah so večinoma izkustveno ocenjeni zaradi nezadostnih in nezanesljivih podatkov. Model smo testirali za makedonsko (FYRM) kmetijstvo. Navkljub omenjenim pomanjkljivostim se je celoten sistem izkazal za odzivnega na zunanje spremembe ob upoštevanju bioloških in ekonomskih omejitev. Izhodiščna projekcija predvideva nadaljevanje aktualne nacionalne kmetijske politike, ki temelji na proizvodno vezanih plačilih in cenah, ki sledijo trendom v EU. Scenarijska analiza zajema tri različice možnih učinkov pristopa FYRM k EU v letu 2015. Pri scenariju postopne prilagoditve cen se proizvodnja vseh kmetijskih proizvodov poveča, njihova poraba pa zmanjša zaradi višjih cen. Izjema je le svinjina zaradi visokih izhodiščnih cen, kar se odrazi v nasprotnih učinkih. Drugi scenarij predvideva prevzem skupne kmetijske politike (SKP) s proizvodno nevezanimi ukrepi in izrazito večjim kmetijskim proračunom. Tudi v tem primeru se proizvodnja vseh kmetijskih proizvodov z izjemo svinjine poveča. To po drugi strani vodi do znatnega povečanja povpraševanja po krmi, medtem ko povpraševanje po mesu ostane skorajda nespremenjeno. Najbolj verjetno se zdi sočasno delovanje obeh omenjenih scenarijev. V tem primeru se učinki obeh ločenih scenarijev združijo, pojavi se le nekaj manjših odstopanj zaradi medsebojnih interakcij med proučevanimi proizvodi.
Food demand in Slovenia REGORŠEK, Darja; ERJAVEC, Emil
Acta agriculturae slovenica,
08/2007, Letnik:
89, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The objective of this research is to analyse food consumption patterns in Slovenia. Cross-sectional household data from Household budget survey in year 2001 were used. We estimate expenditure and ...price elasticities for food demand for households segmented by quartile income levels and for Slovenia total. Food items are divided into the following commodity groups: bread and cereals, meat and fish, dairy products, oils and other fats, fruit, vegetables, confectionary. For a complete demand system analysis, we apply linearly approximated Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). Empirical results show positive expenditure elasticities being close to one for all food groups. In general, demands for dairy products and vegetables could be regarded as the most sensitive to food expenditures. Further on, all Marshallian (uncompensated) and Hicksian (compensated) own price elasticities are negative and less than one. Own price elasticities for meat and fish are estimated as the lowest and for vegetables as the highest. With cross price elasticities close to zero the studied commodity groups seem to be unrelated. The negative sign of uncompensated cross price elasticities indicates complementary type of food groups, while substitution relationship of aggregate foods is indicated by mostly positive Hicksian cross price elasticities. According to these expenditure and price elasticities inhabitants of Slovenia seem to be losing consumption characteristics typical for countries in transition. However some unique food habits persist.
Modelling and analysis of the European milk and dairy market Bartova , Lubica (ed.) (Slovak Agricultural University(Slovaquie).); Fellman , Thomas (ed.) (Joint Research Center(Belgique).); M'Barek , Robert (ed.) (Joint Research Center(Belgique).) ...
2009
Book
This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European ...Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.
This paper presents the market outlook of the main agricultural commodities in Central and Eastern European countries ('CEECs') that form part of the EU. AGMEMOD1 partial equilibrium models are used ...to simulate the effects of policy changes, trends in technological developments, consumptions patterns and macroeconomic conditions. In order to present the post-accession effects we compare projections for the 2015 with those for 2001. In general, the study provides evidence that the CEECs are gaining from accession to the EU, especially in crop sectors and in beef and pork sectors, whereas dairy milk production would be lower. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
The objective of this research is to analyse food consumption patterns in Slovenia for
households segmented by quartile income levels and for whole Slovenian population. Food
items are divided into ...seven commodity groups. Cross-sectional household data from
Household Budget Survey 2001 were used. We apply the linearly approximated Almost Ideal
Demand System (LA/AIDS). Empirical results show positive expenditure elasticities being
close to one where in general demands for dairy products and for vegetables have expenditure
elasticities higher than unity. All Marshallian and Hicksian own price elasticities are negative
and less than one. Demand for meat and fish is quite price inelastic whereas demand for
vegetables is pretty sensitive to its own price changes. Results indicate that Slovenia is losing
consumption characteristics typical for countries in transition however, some unique food
habits persist.
Modelling and analysis of the European milk and dairy market van Leeuwen, Myrna; Tabeau, Andrzej; Salamon, Petra ...
Modelling and analysis of the European milk and dairy market, 23833 EN/1 - 2009, Office des Publications Officielles des Communautés Européennes(2009) - 978-92-79-12487-7,
2009
Publication
This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European ...Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.
