Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, ...accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.
•We compare the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models.•The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of women footwear.•The model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample.•The overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts.•Both state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are very close to the nominal rates.
Invasive alien predators can impose strong selection on native prey populations and induce rapid evolutionary change in the invaded communities. However, studies on evolutionary responses to invasive ...predators are often complicated by the lack of replicate populations differing in coexistence time with the predator, which would allow the determination of how prey traits change during the invasion. The red swamp crayfish
Procambarus clarkii
has invaded many freshwater areas worldwide, with negative impacts for native fauna. Here, we examined how coexistence time shapes antipredator responses of the Iberian waterfrog (
Pelophylax perezi
) to the invasive crayfish by raising tadpoles from five populations differing in historical exposure to
P. clarkii
(30 years, 20 years, or no coexistence). Tadpoles from non-invaded populations responded to the presence of
P. clarkii
with behavioral plasticity (reduced activity)
,
whereas long-term invaded populations showed canalized antipredator behavior (constant low activity level). Tadpoles from one of the long-term invaded populations responded to the crayfish with inducible morphological defenses (deeper tails), reflecting the use of both constitutive and inducible antipredator defenses against the exotic predator by this population. Our results suggest that, while naive
P. perezi
populations responded behaviorally to
P. clarkii
, the strong predation pressure imposed by the crayfish has induced the evolution of qualitatively different antipredator defenses in populations with longer coexistence time. These responses suggest that strong selection by invasive predators may drive rapid evolutionary change in invaded communities. Examining responses of prey species to biological invasions using multiple populations will help us better forecast the impact of invasive predators in natural communities.
In the Mediterranean basin, the globally increasing temperatures are expected to be accompanied by longer heat waves. Commonly assumed to benefit cold-limited invasive alien species, these climatic ...changes may also change their feeding preferences, especially in the case of omnivorous ectotherms. We investigated heat wave effects on diet choice, growth and energy reserves in the invasive red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii. In laboratory experiments, we fed juvenile and adult crayfish on animal, plant or mixed diets and exposed them to a short or a long heat wave. We then measured crayfish survival, growth, body reserves and Fulton's condition index. Diet choices of the crayfish maintained on the mixed diet were estimated using stable isotopes (13C and 15N). The results suggest a decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets at higher temperatures, as juveniles fed on the animal diet were unable to maintain high growth rates in the long heat wave; and a decreased efficiency of herbivorous diets at lower temperatures, as juveniles in the cold accumulated less body reserves when fed on the plant diet. Heat wave treatments increased the assimilation of plant material, especially in juveniles, allowing them to sustain high growth rates in the long heat wave. Contrary to our expectations, crayfish performance decreased in the long heat wave, suggesting that Mediterranean summer heat waves may have negative effects on P. clarkii and that they are unlikely to boost its populations in this region. Although uncertain, it is possible that the greater assimilation of the plant diet resulted from changes in crayfish feeding preferences, raising the hypotheses that i) heat waves may change the predominant impacts of this keystone species and ii) that by altering species' trophic niches, climate change may alter the main impacts of invasive alien species.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, may induce changes in nutrient acquisition by omnivorous ectotherms. Likely modulated by the intensity, frequency and duration of these events, dietary ...shifts during heat waves may threaten the stability of freshwaters. We investigated the effects of heat wave duration on diet assimilation and life-history traits of the freshwater gastropod
Radix balthica
. We compared the magnitude of the effects of a short (1 week) and a long heat wave (7 weeks) on the assimilation of animal- and plant-based diets, measuring performance in terms of growth rate and reproduction. We hypothesized that heat waves should increase the proportion of plant material assimilated on the mixed diet and change the performance of snails on the animal and plant-based diets. Both heat waves increased the assimilation of plant material on the mixed diet and growth rate, with minor negative effects on reproduction. However, responses were disproportional to heat wave duration, as the short heat wave elicited swift and relatively stronger responses. Our findings showcase the role of phenotypic plasticity in aiding ectotherms to cope with increased thermal stress and acclimate. Temporarily changing the strength of trophic interactions, heat waves may alter community dynamics in freshwater habitats.
The invasive
Vespa velutina
has been widely referred as an effective predator of honeybees. Despite the potential risk to pollination services provision and honey production, there is no accurate ...quantification and assessment of its real consequences for honeybees. To date, the identification of the honeybee and other insects in the diet of
V. velutina
has been investigated by direct observation of adult foraging or examination of food pellets. To overcome these limitations, in this study we used a DNA metabarcoding approach to evaluate the usefulness of different types of sample (jaws and stomachs collected from workers and larval faecal pellets taken from the hornet comb) to investigate the predation of
V. velutina
upon honeybees, and potentially on other insects. Honeybee DNA was identified in all types of samples, but larval faecal pellets retrieved the higher number of reads of honeybee DNA and the largest diversity at all taxonomic levels. Over all samples we could identify 4 orders, 9 families, 6 genera and 1 species of prey. We estimate that collecting 6 workers is sufficient to identify honeybee predation by a colony using worker’s jaws. Stomachs were the least useful sample type to detect honeybee DNA. The presence of honeybee DNA in all analysed colonies irrespective of collection site, and the variety of insect orders detected in the diet support current concerns over the acknowledged negative impact of
V. velutina
on managed honeybees and its potential threat to pollination services provision.
Multiple Quaternary glacial refugia in the Iberian Peninsula, commonly known as “refugia within refugia”, allowed diverging populations to come into contact and admix, potentially boosting ...substantial mito-nuclear discordances. In this study, we employ a comprehensive set of mitochondrial and nuclear markers to shed light onto the drivers of geographical differentiation in Iberian high mountain populations of the midwife toads Alytes obstetricans and A. almogavarii from the Pyrenees, Picos de Europa and Guadarrama Mountains. In the three analysed mountain regions, we detected evidence of extensive mito-nuclear discordances and/or admixture between taxa. Clustering analyses identified three major divergent lineages in the Pyrenees (corresponding to the eastern, central and central-western Pyrenees), which possibly recurrently expanded and admixed during the succession of glacial-interglacial periods that characterised the Late Pleistocene, and that currently follow a ring-shaped diversification pattern. On the other hand, populations from the Picos de Europa mountains (NW Iberian Peninsula) showed a mitochondrial affinity to central-western Pyrenean populations and a nuclear affinity to populations from the central Iberian Peninsula, suggesting a likely admixed origin for Picos de Europa populations. Finally, populations from the Guadarrama Mountain Range (central Iberian Peninsula) were depleted of genetic diversity, possibly as a consequence of a recent epidemic of chytridiomycosis. This work highlights the complex evolutionary history that shaped the current genetic composition of high mountain populations, and underscores the importance of using a multilocus approach to better infer the dynamics of population divergence.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Antipredator behaviour is an important fitness component in most animals. A co-evolutionary history between predator and prey is important for prey to respond adaptively to predation threats. When ...non-native predator species invade new areas, native prey may not recognise them or may lack effective antipredator defences. However, responses to novel predators can be facilitated by chemical cues from the predators' diet. The red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii is a widespread invasive predator in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, where it preys upon native anuran tadpoles. In a laboratory experiment we studied behavioural antipredator defences (alterations in activity level and spatial avoidance of predator) of nine anurans in response to P. clarkii chemical cues, and compared them with the defences towards a native predator, the larval dragonfly Aeshna sp. To investigate how chemical cues from consumed conspecifics shape the responses, we raised tadpoles with either a tadpole-fed or starved crayfish, or dragonfly larva, or in the absence of a predator. Five species significantly altered their behaviour in the presence of crayfish, and this was largely mediated by chemical cues from consumed conspecifics. In the presence of dragonflies, most species exhibited behavioural defences and often these did not require the presence of cues from predation events. Responding to cues from consumed conspecifics seems to be a critical factor in facilitating certain behavioural responses to novel exotic predators. This finding can be useful for predicting antipredator responses to invasive predators and help directing conservation efforts to the species at highest risk.
Multiple Quaternary glacial refugia in the Iberian Peninsula, commonly known as "refugia within refugia", allowed diverging populations to come into contact and admix, potentially boosting ...substantial mito-nuclear discordances. In this study, we employ a comprehensive set of mitochondrial and nuclear markers to shed light onto the drivers of geographical differentiation in Iberian high mountain populations of the midwife toads Alytes obstetricans and A. almogavarii from the Pyrenees, Picos de Europa and Guadarrama Mountains. In the three analysed mountain regions, we detected evidence of extensive mito-nuclear discordances and/or admixture between taxa. Clustering analyses identified three major divergent lineages in the Pyrenees (corresponding to the eastern, central and central-western Pyrenees), which possibly recurrently expanded and admixed during the succession of glacial-interglacial periods that characterised the Late Pleistocene, and that currently follow a ring-shaped diversification pattern. On the other hand, populations from the Picos de Europa mountains (NW Iberian Peninsula) showed a mitochondrial affinity to central-western Pyrenean populations and a nuclear affinity to populations from the central Iberian Peninsula, suggesting a likely admixed origin for Picos de Europa populations. Finally, populations from the Guadarrama Mountain Range (central Iberian Peninsula) were depleted of genetic diversity, possibly as a consequence of a recent epidemic of chytridiomycosis. This work highlights the complex evolutionary history that shaped the current genetic composition of high mountain populations, and underscores the importance of using a multilocus approach to better infer the dynamics of population divergence.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
According to the current therapeutic guidelines of the WHO physical activity and exercise are recommended as first-line therapy of arterial hypertension. Previous results lead to the conclusion, ...however, that hearts of spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) with established hypertension cannot compensate for the haemodynamic stresses caused by long-term exercise. The current study was initiated to investigate the effects of aerobic exercise on the cardiac remodeling as the sole therapeutic measure before and during hypertension became established.
Beginning at their 6th week of life, six SHR were provided with a running wheel over a period of 6 months. Normotensive Wistar rats served as non-hypertensive controls.
In Wistar rats and SHR, voluntary exercise led to cardioprotective adaptation reactions that were reflected in increased mitochondrial respiration, reduced heart rate and improved systolic function. Exercise also had antioxidant effects and reduced the expression of maladaptive genes (TGF-β1, CTGF, and FGF2). However, at the end of the 6-months' training, the echocardiograms revealed that SHR runners developed a restrictive cardiomyopathy. The induction of lysyl oxidase (LOX), which led to an increased network of matrix proteins and a massive elevation in collagen III expression, was identified as the underlying cause.
Running-induced adaptive mechanisms effectively counteract the classic remodeling of hearts subject to chronic pressure loads. However, with sustained running stress, signaling pathways are activated that have a negative effect on left ventricular relaxation. Our data suggest that the induction of LOX may play a causative role in the diagnosed filling disorder in trained SHR.
This paper addresses a new Mixed-model Assembly Line Sequencing Problem in the Footwear industry. This problem emerges in a large company, which benefits from advanced automated stitching systems. ...However, these systems need to be managed and optimised. Operators with varied abilities operate machines of various types, placed throughout the stitching lines. In different quantities, the components of the various shoe models, placed in boxes, move along the lines in either direction. The work assumes that the associated balancing problems have already been solved, thus solely concentrating on the sequencing procedures to minimise the makespan. An optimisation model is presented, but it has just been useful to structure the problems and test small instances due to the practical problems' complexity and dimension. Consequently, two methods were developed, one based on Variable Neighbourhood Descent, named VND-MSeq, and the other based on Genetic Algorithms, referred to as GA-MSeq. Computational results are included, referring to diverse instances and real large-size problems. These results allow for a comparison of the novel methods and to ascertain their effectiveness. We obtained better solutions than those available in the company.
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