Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate ...trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Many infectious diseases are not maintained in a state of equilibrium but exhibit significant fluctuations in prevalence over time. For pathogens that consist of multiple antigenic types or strains, ...such as influenza, malaria or dengue, these fluctuations often take on the form of regular or irregular epidemic outbreaks in addition to oscillatory prevalence levels of the constituent strains. To explain the observed temporal dynamics and structuring in pathogen populations, epidemiological multi-strain models have commonly evoked strong immune interactions between strains as the predominant driver. Here, with specific reference to dengue, we show how spatially explicit, multi-strain systems can exhibit all of the described epidemiological dynamics even in the absence of immune competition. Instead, amplification of natural stochastic differences in disease transmission, can give rise to persistent oscillations comprising semi-regular epidemic outbreaks and sequential dominance of dengue's four serotypes. Not only can this mechanism explain observed differences in serotype and disease distributions between neighbouring geographical areas, it also has important implications for inferring the nature and epidemiological consequences of immune mediated competition in multi-strain pathogen systems.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Bacteriophages represent an avenue to overcome the current antibiotic resistance crisis, but evolution of genetic resistance to phages remains a concern. In vitro, bacteria evolve genetic resistance, ...preventing phage adsorption or degrading phage DNA. In natural environments, evolved resistance is lower possibly because the spatial heterogeneity within biofilms, microcolonies, or wall populations favours phenotypic survival to lytic phages. However, it is also possible that the persistence of genetically sensitive bacteria is due to less efficient phage amplification in natural environments, the existence of refuges where bacteria can hide, and a reduced spread of resistant genotypes. Here, we monitor the interactions between individual planktonic bacteria in isolation in ephemeral refuges and bacteriophage by tracking the survival of individual cells. We find that in these transient spatial refuges, phenotypic resistance due to reduced expression of the phage receptor is a key determinant of bacterial survival. This survival strategy is in contrast with the emergence of genetic resistance in the absence of ephemeral refuges in well-mixed environments. Predictions generated via a mathematical modelling framework to track bacterial response to phages reveal that the presence of spatial refuges leads to fundamentally different population dynamics that should be considered in order to predict and manipulate the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of bacteria-phage interactions in naturally structured environments.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Antibodies are thought to play an essential role in naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Prospective cohort studies have frequently shown how continuous exposure to the malaria parasite Plasmodium ...falciparum cause an accumulation of specific responses against various antigens that correlate with a decreased risk of clinical malaria episodes. However, small effect sizes and the often polymorphic nature of immunogenic parasite proteins make the robust identification of the true targets of protective immunity ambiguous. Furthermore, the degree of individual-level protection conferred by elevated responses to these antigens has not yet been explored. Here we applied a machine learning approach to identify immune signatures predictive of individual-level protection against clinical disease. We find that commonly assumed immune correlates are poor predictors of clinical protection in children. On the other hand, antibody profiles predictive of an individual's malaria protective status can be found in data comprising responses to a large set of diverse parasite proteins. We show that this pattern emerges only after years of continuous exposure to the malaria parasite, whereas susceptibility to clinical episodes in young hosts (< 10 years) cannot be ascertained by measured antibody responses alone.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The required efforts, feasibility and predicted success of an intervention strategy against an infectious disease are partially determined by its basic reproduction number, R0. In its simplest form ...R0 can be understood as the product of the infectious period, the number of infectious contacts and the per-contact transmission probability, which in the case of vector-transmitted diseases necessarily extend to the vector stages. As vectors do not usually recover from infection, they remain infectious for life, which places high significance on the vector's life expectancy. Current methods for estimating the R0 for a vector-borne disease are mostly derived from compartmental modelling frameworks assuming constant vector mortality rates. We hypothesised that some of the assumptions underlying these models can lead to unrealistic high vector life expectancies with important repercussions for R0 estimates.
Here we used a stochastic, individual-based model which allowed us to directly measure the number of secondary infections arising from one index case under different assumptions about vector mortality. Our results confirm that formulas based on age-independent mortality rates can overestimate R0 by nearly 100% compared to our own estimate derived from first principles. We further provide a correction factor that can be used with a standard R0 formula and adjusts for the discrepancies due to erroneous vector age distributions.
Vector mortality rates play a crucial role for the success and general epidemiology of vector-transmitted diseases. Many modelling efforts intrinsically assume these to be age-independent, which, as clearly demonstrated here, can lead to severe over-estimation of the disease's reproduction number. Our results thus re-emphasise the importance of obtaining field-relevant and species-dependent vector mortality rates, which in turn would facilitate more realistic intervention impact predictions.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. ...Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine.
The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%-25% (all simulations: -3%-34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%-25% (all simulations: 10%- 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines.
Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.
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Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Highlights • there is still a significant degree of uncertainty surrounding not only the action of the Sanofi Pasteur's dengue vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) but also immune interactions between dengue ...serotypes • different immune interactions in the form of short- and long-term cross-protection or cross-enhancement (ADE) have been put forward as important drivers of dengue epidemiology; however, their effect on vaccination impact has not yet been addressed • using an individual-based meta-population model we simulated population-wide introduction of a dengue vaccine under a number of different assumptions regarding dengue immune interactions • in the absence of cross-immunity or cross-enhancement, a routine vaccination campaign based on a CYD-TDV-like vaccine has a limited impact on dengue incidence, which can however be significantly enhanced by performing a one-off catch-up campaign • vaccination impact is crucially dependent on vaccination age and (catch-up) coverage • vaccination can raise the average age of first and second infection • vaccination impact can be markedly reduced when considering immune interaction, in particular ADE and full immunity after two heterologous infections; temporary cross-immunity, on the other hand, does not affect vaccine impact • changes due to immune interaction are independent of dengue's transmission potential (R0), which, on the other hand, can be significantly altered when fitting a model to epidemiological data under different assumptions about cross-immunity • these results thus clearly demonstrate that model-based assumptions about immune-interactions can crucially affect dengue vaccine impact predictions
Microbial virulence is a complex and often multifactorial phenotype, intricately linked to a pathogen's evolutionary trajectory. Toxicity, the ability to destroy host cell membranes, and adhesion, ...the ability to adhere to human tissues, are the major virulence factors of many bacterial pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus. Here, we assayed the toxicity and adhesiveness of 90 MRSA (methicillin resistant S. aureus) isolates and found that while there was remarkably little variation in adhesion, toxicity varied by over an order of magnitude between isolates, suggesting different evolutionary selection pressures acting on these two traits. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and identified a large number of loci, as well as a putative network of epistatically interacting loci, that significantly associated with toxicity. Despite this apparent complexity in toxicity regulation, a predictive model based on a set of significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion and deletions events (indels) showed a high degree of accuracy in predicting an isolate's toxicity solely from the genetic signature at these sites. Our results thus highlight the potential of using sequence data to determine clinically relevant parameters and have further implications for understanding the microbial virulence of this opportunistic pathogen.
In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of ...dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.
At any given age, men are more likely to die than women, but women have poorer health at older ages. This is referred to as the "male-female, health-survival paradox", which is not fully understood. ...Here, we provide a general solution to the paradox that relies on intralocus sexual conflict, where alleles segregating in the population have late-acting positive effects on male fitness, but negative effects on female health. Using an evolutionary modelling framework, we show that male-benefit, female-detriment alleles can spread if they are expressed after female reproduction stops. We provide support for our conflict based solution using experimental Drosophila data. Our results show that selecting for increased late-life male reproductive effort can increase male fitness but have a detrimental effect on female fitness. Furthermore, we show that late-life male fertility is negatively genetically correlated with female health. Our study suggests that intralocus sexual conflict could resolve the health-survival paradox.
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