Few studies have investigated the risks of subsequent primary neoplasms after adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer. We investigated the risks of specific subsequent primary neoplasms after each of ...16 types of AYA cancer.
The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 200 945 survivors of cancer diagnosed when aged 15–39 years in England and Wales from Jan 1, 1971, to Dec 31, 2006. The cohort was established using cancer registrations from the Office for National Statistics and the Welsh Cancer registry. Follow-up was from 5-year survival until the first occurrence of death, emigration, or study end date (Dec 31, 2012). In this analysis, we focus on the risk of specific subsequent primary neoplasms after 16 types of AYA cancer: breast; cervical; testicular; Hodgkin lymphoma (female); Hodgkin lymphoma (male); melanoma; CNS (intracranial); colorectal; non-Hodgkin lymphoma; thyroid; soft-tissue sarcoma; ovarian; bladder; other female genital; leukaemia; and head and neck cancer. We report absolute excess risks (AERs; per 10 000 person-years) and cumulative incidence of specific types of subsequent primary neoplasm after each type of AYA cancer.
During the 2 631 326 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up 16·8 years, IQR 10·5–25·2), 12 321 subsequent primary neoplasms were diagnosed in 11 565 survivors, most frequently among survivors of breast cancer, cervical cancer, testicular cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. AERs of any subsequent primary neoplasms were 19·5 per 10 000 person-years (95% CI 17·4–21·5) in survivors of breast cancer, 10·2 (8·0–12·4) in survivors of cervical cancer, 18·9 (16·6–21·1) in survivors of testicular cancer, 55·7 (50·4–61·1) in female survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma, and 29·9 (26·3–33·6) in male survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma. The cumulative incidence of all subsequent primary neoplasms 35 years after diagnosis was 11·9% (95% CI 11·3–12·6) in survivors of breast cancer, 15·8% (14·8–16·7) in survivors of cervical cancer, 20·2% (18·9–21·5) in survivors of testicular cancer, 26·6% (24·7–28·6) in female survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma, and 16·5% (15·2–18·0) in male survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma. In patients who had survived at least 30 years from diagnosis of cervical cancer, testicular cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma in women, breast cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma in men, we identified a small number of specific subsequent primary neoplasms that account for 82%, 61%, 58%, 45%, and 41% of the total excess number of neoplasms, respectively. Lung cancer accounted for a notable proportion of the excess number of neoplasms across all AYA groups investigated.
Our finding that a small number of specific subsequent primary neoplasms account for a large percentage of the total excess number of neoplasms in long-term survivors of cervical, breast, and testicular cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma provides an evidence base to inform priorities for clinical long-term follow-up. The prominence of lung cancer after each of these AYA cancers indicates the need for further work aimed at preventing and reducing the burden of this cancer in future survivors of AYA cancer.
Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health Research, Academy of Medical Sciences, and Children with Cancer UK.
CONTEXT Survivors of childhood cancer are at excess risk of developing subsequent primary neoplasms but the long-term risks are uncertain. OBJECTIVES To investigate long-term risks of subsequent ...primary neoplasms in survivors of childhood cancer, to identify the types that contribute most to long-term excess risk, and to identify subgroups of survivors at substantially increased risk of particular subsequent primary neoplasms that may require specific interventions. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study—a population-based cohort of 17 981 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer at younger than 15 years between 1940 and 1991 in Great Britain, followed up through December 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), absolute excess risks (AERs), and cumulative incidence of subsequent primary neoplasms. RESULTS After a median follow-up time of 24.3 years (mean = 25.6 years), 1354 subsequent primary neoplasms were ascertained; the most frequently observed being central nervous system (n = 344), nonmelanoma skin cancer (n = 278), digestive (n = 105), genitourinary (n = 100), breast (n = 97), and bone (n = 94). The overall SIR was 4 times more than expected (SIR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval CI, 3.6-4.2; AER, 16.8 per 10 000 person-years). The AER at older than 40 years was highest for digestive and genitourinary subsequent primary neoplasms (AER, 5.9 95% CI, 2.5-9.3; and AER, 6.0 95%CI, 2.3-9.6 per 10 000 person-years, respectively); 36% of the total AER was attributable to these 2 subsequent primary neoplasm sites. The cumulative incidence of colorectal cancer for survivors treated with direct abdominopelvic irradiation was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.7%-2.6%) by age 50 years, comparable with the 1.2% risk in individuals with at least 2 first-degree relatives affected by colorectal cancer. CONCLUSION Among a cohort of British childhood cancer survivors, the greatest excess risk associated with subsequent primary neoplasms at older than 40 years was for digestive and genitourinary neoplasms.
CONTEXT Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk of premature mortality compared with the general population, but little is known about the long-term risks of specific causes of death, ...particularly beyond 25 years from diagnosis at ages when background mortality in the general population starts to increase substantially. OBJECTIVE To investigate long-term cause-specific mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer in a large-scale population-based cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a population-based cohort of 17 981 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer before age 15 years between 1940 and 1991 in Britain and followed up until the end of 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs). RESULTS Overall, 3049 deaths were observed, which was 11 times the number expected (SMR, 10.7; 95% confidence interval CI, 10.3-11.1). The SMR declined with follow-up but was still 3-fold higher than expected (95% CI, 2.5-3.9) 45 years from diagnosis. The AER for deaths from recurrence declined from 97 extra deaths (95% CI, 92-101) per 10 000 person-years at 5 to 14 years from diagnosis, to 8 extra deaths (95% CI, 3-22) beyond 45 years from diagnosis. In contrast, during the same periods of follow-up, the AER for deaths from second primary cancers and circulatory causes increased from 8 extra deaths (95% CI, 7-10) and 2 extra deaths (95% CI, 2-3) to 58 extra deaths (95% CI, 38-90) and 29 extra deaths (95% CI, 16-56), respectively. Beyond 45 years from diagnosis, recurrence accounted for 7% of the excess number of deaths observed while second primary cancers and circulatory deaths together accounted for 77%. CONCLUSION Among a cohort of British survivors of childhood cancer, excess mortality from second primary cancers and circulatory diseases continued to occur beyond 25 years from diagnosis.
Summary
Background
Data regarding incidence, prevalence and long‐term outcomes of inflammatory bowel diseases in the UK are limited or outdated.
Aims
To investigate incidence and prevalence of ...Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis and risk of colorectal cancer and all‐cause mortality in these diseases.
Methods
Inflammatory bowel disease cases between 2000 and 2018 were identified from a national primary care database. Inflammatory bowel disease prevalence was forecast until 2025. The association between inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer and all‐cause mortality was investigated using age/sex‐matched retrospective cohort studies. Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking status and body mass index.
Results
Ulcerative colitis prevalence increased from 390 to 570 per 100 000 population from 2000 to 2017. Prevalence of Crohn's disease increased from 220 to 400 per 100 000. In 2017 male Crohn's disease prevalence was 0.35% (95% confidence interval 0.34‐0.36); female prevalence was 0.44% (0.43‐0.45). Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is predicted to be 1.1% by 2025. Incidence of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease was 23.2 (22.8‐23.6) and 14.3 (14.0‐14.7) per 100 000 person‐years respectively. Subjects with ulcerative colitis were more likely to develop colorectal cancer than controls (adjusted Hazard Ratio 1.40 1.23‐1.59). Colorectal cancer rates remained stable in inflammatory bowel diseases over time. Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were associated with increased risk of all‐cause mortality (1.17 1.14‐1.21 and 1.42 1.36‐1.48 respectively).
Conclusions
The UK prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is greater than previous reports suggest and we predict an 11% increase in prevalence by the year 2025. Mortality risk in inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer risk in ulcerative colitis are increased compared to matched controls.
No agreement has been reached on the long-term survival prospects for patients with Cushing's disease. We studied life expectancy in patients who had received curative treatment and whose ...hypercortisolism remained in remission for more than 10 years, and identified factors determining their survival.
We did a multicentre, multinational, retrospective cohort study using individual case records from specialist referral centres in the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria for participants, who had all been in studies reported previously in peer-reviewed publications, were diagnosis and treatment of Cushing's disease, being cured of hypercortisolism for a minimum of 10 years at study entry, and continuing to be cured with no relapses until the database was frozen or death. We identified the number and type of treatments used to achieve cure, and used mortality as our primary endpoint. We compared mortality rates between patients with Cushing's disease and the general population, and expressed them as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). We analysed survival data with multivariate analysis (Cox regression) with no corrections for multiple testing.
The census dates on which the data were frozen ranged from Dec 31, 2009, to Dec 1, 2014. We obtained data for 320 patients with 3790 person-years of follow-up from 10 years after cure (female:male ratio of 3:1). The median patient follow-up was 11·8 years (IQR 17-26) from study entry and did not differ between countries. There were no significant differences in demographic characteristics, duration of follow-up, comorbidities, treatment number, or type of treatment between women and men, so we pooled data from both sexes for survival analysis. 51 (16%) of the cohort died during follow-up from study entry (10 years after cure). Median survival from study entry was similar for women (31 years; IQR 19-38) and men (28 years; 24-42), and about 40 years (IQR 30-48) from remission. The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 1·61 (95% CI 1·23-2·12; p=0·0001). The SMR for circulatory disease was increased at 2·72 (1·88-3·95; p<0·0001), but deaths from cancer were not higher than expected (0·79, 0·41-1·51). Presence of diabetes, but not hypertension, was an independent risk factor for mortality (hazard ratio 2·82, 95% CI 1·29-6·17; p=0·0095). We noted a step-wise reduction in survival with increasing number of treatments. Patients cured by pituitary surgery alone had long-term survival similar to that of the general population (SMR 0·95, 95% CI 0·58-1·55) compared with those who were not (2·53, 1·82-3·53; p<0·0001).
Patients with Cushing's disease who have been in remission for more than 10 years are at increased risk of overall mortality compared with the general population, particularly from circulatory disease. However, median survival from cure is excellent at about 40 years of remission. Treatment complexity and an increased number of treatments, reflecting disease that is more difficult to control, appears to negatively affect survival. Pituitary surgery alone is the preferred treatment to secure an optimum outcome, and should be done in a centre of surgical excellence.
None.
Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in childhood cancer survivors cause substantial morbidity and mortality. This review summarizes recent literature on SMN epidemiology, risk factors, ...surveillance, and interventions. Survivors of childhood cancer experience long-term increased SMN risk compared with the general population, with a greater than twofold increased solid tumor risk extending beyond age 40 years. There is a dose-dependent increased risk for solid tumors after radiotherapy, with the highest risks for tumors occurring in or near the treatment field (eg, greater than fivefold increased risk for breast, brain, thyroid, skin, bone, and soft tissue malignancies). Alkylating and anthracycline chemotherapies increase the risk for development of several solid malignancies in addition to acute leukemia/myelodysplasia, and these risks may be modified by other patient characteristics, such as age at exposure and, potentially, inherited genetic susceptibility. Strategies for identifying survivors at risk and initiating long-term surveillance have improved and interventions are underway to improve knowledge about late-treatment effects among survivors and caregivers. Better understanding of treatment-related risk factors and genetic susceptibility holds promise for refining surveillance strategies and, ultimately, upfront cancer therapies.
Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood ...cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality.
BACKGROUND:Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac ...mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.
METHODS:The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends.
RESULTS:Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on.
CONCLUSIONS:Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact.
Survivors of Wilms tumor (WT) are at risk for adverse health and social outcomes but risks beyond 30 years from diagnosis remain uncertain. We investigated the risks of adverse outcomes among 5-year ...survivors of WT, in particular, those between 30 and 50 years from diagnosis.
The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study includes 1,441 5-year survivors of WT. We investigated cause-specific mortality, risk of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs), and, for those who completed a questionnaire, the extent of smoking and drinking, educational achievement, health status, and health service use compared with the general population.
Cumulative risk of death from all causes, excluding recurrence, increased substantially from 5.4% to 22.7% at 30 years and 50 years, respectively, after WT diagnosis-75% of excess deaths beyond 30 years from diagnosis were attributable to SPNs (50%) and cardiac diseases (25%). Digestive cancer, most frequently bowel, accounted for 41% of excess cancers beyond 30 years.
Between 30 and 50 years from diagnosis, survivors of WT are at a substantially increased risk of premature mortality, and 75% of excess deaths were accounted for by SPNs and cardiac diseases. Radiotherapy exposure was a risk factor for both outcomes. The proportion of patients with WT who are exposed to radiotherapy has reduced substantially in recent decades because of initiatives such as the SIOP WT 2001 clinical trial, which sought to reduce late effects; however, the majority of current survivors, who are at least 30 years from diagnosis, received radiotherapy. Surveillance of this group should focus on SPNs, in particular, bowel and breast cancers, and cardiac conditions.
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