U.K. HiGEM Shaffrey, L. C.; Stevens, I.; Norton, W. A. ...
Journal of climate,
04/2009, Letnik:
22, Številka:
8
Journal Article
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This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office ...Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations.
Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology.
Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We use a highly complete subset of the Galaxy And Mass Assembly II (GAMA-II) redshift sample to fully describe the stellar mass dependence of close pairs and mergers between 108 and 1012 M⊙. Using ...the analytic form of this fit we investigate the total stellar mass accreting on to more massive galaxies across all mass ratios. Depending on how conservatively we select our robust merging systems, the fraction of mass merging on to more massive companions is 2.0–5.6 per cent. Using the GAMA-II data we see no significant evidence for a change in the close pair fraction between redshift z = 0.05 and 0.2. However, we find a systematically higher fraction of galaxies in similar mass close pairs compared to published results over a similar redshift baseline. Using a compendium of data and the function γ
M
= A(1 + z)
m
to predict the major close pair fraction, we find fitting parameters of A = 0.021 ± 0.001 and m = 1.53 ± 0.08, which represents a higher low-redshift normalization and shallower power-law slope than recent literature values. We find that the relative importance of in situ star formation versus galaxy merging is inversely correlated, with star formation dominating the addition of stellar material below
$\mathcal {M}^*$
and merger accretion events dominating beyond
$\mathcal {M}^*$
. We find mergers have a measurable impact on the whole extent of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF), manifest as a deepening of the ‘dip’ in the GSMF over the next ∼Gyr and an increase in
$\mathcal {M}^*$
by as much as 0.01–0.05 dex.
Autoantibodies directed against cytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A have been identified in many patients with inclusion body myositis. This retrospective study investigated the association between ...anticytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A antibody status and clinical, serological and histopathological features to explore the utility of this antibody to identify inclusion body myositis subgroups and to predict prognosis.
Data from various European inclusion body myositis registries were pooled. Anticytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A status was determined by an established ELISA technique. Cases were stratified according to antibody status and comparisons made. Survival and mobility aid requirement analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression.
Data from 311 patients were available for analysis; 102 (33%) had anticytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A antibodies. Antibody-positive patients had a higher adjusted mortality risk (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.11 to 3.21, p=0.019), lower frequency of proximal upper limb weakness at disease onset (8% vs 23%, adjusted OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.68, p=0.005) and an increased prevalence of excess of cytochrome oxidase deficient fibres on muscle biopsy analysis (87% vs 72%, adjusted OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.17 to 6.66, p=0.020), compared with antibody-negative patients.
Differences were observed in clinical and histopathological features between anticytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A antibody positive and negative patients with inclusion body myositis, and antibody-positive patients had a higher adjusted mortality risk. Stratification of inclusion body myositis by anticytosolic 5'-nucleotidase 1A antibody status may be useful, potentially highlighting a distinct inclusion body myositis subtype with a more severe phenotype.
8000 years ago, prior to Neolithic agriculture, Europe was mostly a wooded continent. Since then, its forest cover has been progressively fragmented, so that today it covers less than half of ...Europe's land area, in many cases having been cleared to make way for fields and pasture-land. Establishing the origin of Europe's current, more open land-cover mosaic requires a long-term perspective, for which pollen analysis offers a key tool. In this study we utilise and compare three numerical approaches to transforming pollen data into past forest cover, drawing on >1000
C-dated site records. All reconstructions highlight the different histories of the mixed temperate and the northern boreal forests, with the former declining progressively since ~6000 years ago, linked to forest clearance for agriculture in later prehistory (especially in northwest Europe) and early historic times (e.g. in north central Europe). In contrast, extensive human impact on the needle-leaf forests of northern Europe only becomes detectable in the last two millennia and has left a larger area of forest in place. Forest loss has been a dominant feature of Europe's landscape ecology in the second half of the current interglacial, with consequences for carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity.
We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model ...developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.
A new coupled general circulation climate model developed at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre is presented, and aspects of its performance in climate simulations run for the Intergovernmental Panel on ...Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) documented with reference to previous models. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1) is built around a new atmospheric dynamical core; uses higher resolution than the previous Hadley Centre model, HadCM3; and contains several improvements in its formulation including interactive atmospheric aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, biomass burning, and sea salt) plus their direct and indirect effects. The ocean component also has higher resolution and incorporates a sea ice component more advanced than HadCM3 in terms of both dynamics and thermodynamics. HadGEM1 thus permits experiments including some interactive processes not feasible with HadCM3. The simulation of present-day mean climate in HadGEM1 is significantly better overall in comparison to HadCM3, although some deficiencies exist in the simulation of tropical climate and El Niño variability. We quantify the overall improvement using a quasi-objective climate index encompassing a range of atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice variables. It arises partly from higher resolution but also from greater fidelity in modeling dynamical and physical processes, for example, in the representation of clouds and sea ice. HadGEM1 has a similar effective climate sensitivity (2.8 K) to a CO₂ doubling as HadCM3 (3.1 K), although there are significant regional differences in their response patterns, especially in the Tropics. HadGEM1 is anticipated to be used as the basis both for higher-resolution and higher-complexity Earth System studies in the near future.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Please cite this paper as: Hawkins T, Roberts J, Mangos G, Davis G, Roberts L, Brown M. Plasma uric acid remains a marker of poor outcome in hypertensive pregnancy: a retrospective cohort study. BJOG ...2012 2012;119:484–492.
Objective To examine the relationship between hyperuricaemia, haemoconcentration and maternal and fetal outcomes in hypertensive pregnancies.
Design Retrospective analysis of a database of hypertensive pregnancies.
Setting St George Hospital, a major obstetric unit in Australia.
Population A cohort of 1880 pregnant women without underlying hypertension or renal disease, referred for management of pre‐eclampsia or gestational hypertension.
Methods Demographic, clinical and biochemical data at time of referral and delivery were collected for each pregnancy. Women were grouped according to diagnosis (pre‐eclampsia or gestational hypertension) and logistic regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between uric acid, haemoglobin, haematocrit and adverse outcomes; an α level of P < 0.01 was used for statistical significance.
Main outcome measures Composites of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes.
Results In women with ‘benign’ GH (without proteinuria or any other maternal clinical feature of pre‐eclampsia) gestation‐corrected hyperuricaemia was associated with increased risk of a small‐for‐gestational‐age infant (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.3–4.8) and prematurity (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.4–7.2), but not with adverse maternal outcome. In the whole cohort of hypertensive pregnant women (those with pre‐eclampsia or gestational hypertension) the risk of adverse maternal outcome (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6–2.4) and adverse fetal outcome (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.5–2.1) increased with increasing concentration of uric acid. Hyperuricaemia corrected for gestation provided additional strength to these associations. Haemoglobin and haematocrit were not associated with adverse pregnancy outcome.
Conclusions Hyperuricaemia in hypertensive pregnancy remains an important finding because it identifies women at increased risk of adverse maternal and particularly fetal outcome; the latter, even in women with gestational hypertension without any other feature of pre‐eclampsia.
Current strategies to treat pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia rely on risk stratification algorithms using categorical data. We investigated whether using continuous variables assigned different ...weights would improve risk stratification. We developed and validated a multivariable Cox model for relapse-free survival (RFS) using information from 21199 patients. We constructed risk groups by identifying cutoffs of the COG Prognostic Index (PI
) that maximized discrimination of the predictive model. Patients with higher PI
have higher predicted relapse risk. The PI
reliably discriminates patients with low vs. high relapse risk. For those with moderate relapse risk using current COG risk classification, the PI
identifies subgroups with varying 5-year RFS. Among current COG standard-risk average patients, PI
identifies low and intermediate risk groups with 96% and 90% RFS, respectively. Similarly, amongst current COG high-risk patients, PI
identifies four groups ranging from 96% to 66% RFS, providing additional discrimination for future treatment stratification. When coupled with traditional algorithms, the novel PI
can more accurately risk stratify patients, identifying groups with better outcomes who may benefit from less intensive therapy, and those who have high relapse risk needing innovative approaches for cure.
A coupled system of wind, wind wave, and coastal circulation models has been implemented for southern Louisiana and Mississippi to simulate riverine flows, tides, wind waves, and hurricane storm ...surge in the region. The system combines the NOAA Hurricane Research Division Wind Analysis System (H*WIND) and the Interactive Objective Kinematic Analysis (IOKA) kinematic wind analyses, the Wave Model (WAM) offshore and Steady-State Irregular Wave (STWAVE) nearshore wind wave models, and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) basin to channel-scale unstructured grid circulation model. The system emphasizes a high-resolution (down to 50 m) representation of the geometry, bathymetry, and topography; nonlinear coupling of all processes including wind wave radiation stress-induced set up; and objective specification of frictional parameters based on land-cover databases and commonly used parameters. Riverine flows and tides are validated for no storm conditions, while winds, wind waves, hydrographs, and high water marks are validated for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Executive Summary Surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) can be performed without additional risk of operative mortality or major morbidity, and is recommended at the time of concomitant ...mitral operations to restore sinus rhythm. (Class I, Level A) Surgical ablation for AF can be performed without additional operative risk of mortality or major morbidity, and is recommended at the time of concomitant isolated aortic valve replacement, isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and aortic valve replacement plus coronary artery bypass graft operations to restore sinus rhythm. (Class I, Level B nonrandomized) Surgical ablation for symptomatic AF in the absence of structural heart disease that is refractory to class I/III antiarrhythmic drugs or catheter-based therapy or both is reasonable as a primary stand-alone procedure, to restore sinus rhythm. (Class IIA, Level B randomized) Surgical ablation for symptomatic persistent or longstanding persistent AF in the absence of structural heart disease is reasonable, as a stand-alone procedure using the Cox-Maze III/IV lesion set compared with pulmonary vein isolation alone. (Class IIA, Level B nonrandomized) Surgical ablation for symptomatic AF in the setting of left atrial enlargement (≥4.5 cm) or more than moderate mitral regurgitation by pulmonary vein isolation alone is not recommended. (Class III no benefit, Level C expert opinion) It is reasonable to perform left atrial appendage excision or exclusion in conjunction with surgical ablation for AF for longitudinal thromboembolic morbidity prevention. (Class IIA, Level C limited data) At the time of concomitant cardiac operations in patients with AF, it is reasonable to surgically manage the left atrial appendage for longitudinal thromboembolic morbidity prevention. (Class IIA, Level C expert opinion) In the treatment of AF, multidisciplinary heart team assessment, treatment planning, and long-term follow-up can be useful and beneficial to optimize patient outcomes. (Class I, Level C expert opinion)
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