Stratospheric water vapor feedback Dessler, A. E.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Wang, T. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
11/2013, Letnik:
110, Številka:
45
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor ...increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry–climate model to be +0.3 W/(m ²⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause.
Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by ...equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine - EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be -5 to -10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to -5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties.
A single-particle soot photometer (SP2) was flown on a NASA WB-57F high-altitude research aircraft in November 2004 from Houston, Texas. The SP2 uses laser-induced incandescence to detect individual ...black carbon (BC) particles in an air sample in the mass range of approx.3-300 fg (approx.0.15-0.7 microns volume equivalent diameter). Scattered light is used to size the remaining non-BC aerosols in the range of approx.0.17-0.7 microns diameter. We present profiles of both aerosol types from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere from two midlatitude flights. Results for total aerosol amounts in the size range detected by the SP2 are in good agreement with typical particle spectrometer measurements in the same region. All ambient incandescing particles were identified as BC because their incandescence properties matched those of laboratory-generated BC aerosol. Approximately 40% of these BC particles showed evidence of internal mixing (e.g., coating). Throughout profiles between 5 and 18.7 km, BC particles were less than a few percent of total aerosol number, and black carbon aerosol (BCA) mass mixing ratio showed a constant gradient with altitude above 5 km. SP2 data was compared to results from the ECHAM4/MADE and LmDzT-INCA global aerosol models. The comparison will help resolve the important systematic differences in model aerosol processes that determine BCA loadings. Further intercomparisons of models and measurements as presented here will improve the accuracy of the radiative forcing contribution from BCA.
Climate models predict that tropical lower stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state‐of‐the‐art chemistry‐climate models. Under high greenhouse gas ...emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 ppmv over the 21st century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50–80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales; on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.
Key Points
Models all predict water in the stratosphere will increase
Much of this is due to warming of the tropopause
A significant fraction, however, is due to increases in evaporation of convective ice
For almost two decades, the airborne Fast In-situ Stratospheric Hygrometer (FISH) has stood for accurate and precise measurements of total water mixing ratios (WMR, gas phase + evaporated ice) in the ...upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). Here, we present a comprehensive review of the measurement technique (Lyman- alpha photofragment fluorescence), calibration procedure, accuracy and reliability of FISH. Crucial for FISH measurement quality is the regular calibration to a water vapor reference, namely the commercial frost-point hygrometer DP30. In the frame of this work this frost-point hygrometer is compared to German and British traceable metrological water standards and its accuracy is found to be 2-4 %. Overall, in the range from 4 to 1000 ppmv, the total accuracy of FISH was found to be 6-8 %, as stated in previous publications. For lower mixing ratios down to 1 ppmv, the uncertainty reaches a lower limit of 0.3 ppmv. For specific, non-atmospheric conditions, as set in experiments at the AIDA chamber - namely mixing ratios below 10 and above 100 ppmv in combination with high- and low-pressure conditions - the need to apply a modified FISH calibration evaluation has been identified. The new evaluation improves the agreement of FISH with other hygrometers to plus or minus 10 % accuracy in the respective mixing ratio ranges. Furthermore, a quality check procedure for high total water measurements in cirrus clouds at high pressures (400-500 hPa) is introduced. The performance of FISH in the field is assessed by reviewing intercomparisons of FISH water vapor data with other in situ and remote sensing hygrometers over the last two decades. We find that the agreement of FISH with the other hygrometers has improved over that time span from overall up to plus or minus 30 % or more to about plus or minus 5-20 % at < 10 ppmv and to plus or minus 0-15 % at > 10 ppmv. As presented here, the robust and continuous calibration and operation procedures of the FISH instrument over the last two decades establish the position of FISH as one of the core instruments for in situ observations of water vapor in the UT/LS.
In the framework of the SI2N (SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)/IO3C (International Ozone Commission)/IGACO-O3 (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations ...- Ozone)/NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change)) initiative, several long-term vertically resolved merged ozone data sets produced from satellite measurements have been analysed and compared. This paper presents an overview of the methods, assumptions, and challenges involved in constructing such merged data sets, as well as the first thorough intercomparison of seven new long-term satellite data sets. The analysis focuses on the representation of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends for the period 1984-2011, which is common to all data sets. Overall, the best agreement amongst data sets is seen in the mid-latitude lower and middle stratosphere, with larger differences in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the upper stratosphere globally. In most cases, differences in the choice of underlying instrument records that were merged produced larger differences between data sets than the use of different merging techniques. Long-term ozone trends were calculated for the period 1984-2011 using a piecewise linear regression with a change in trend prescribed at the end of 1997. For the 1984-1997 period, trends tend to be most similar between data sets (with largest negative trends ranging from -4 to -8% decade-1 in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere), in large part due to the fact that most data sets are predominantly (or only) based on the SAGE-II record. Trends in the middle and lower stratosphere are much smaller, and, particularly for the lower stratosphere, large uncertainties remain. For the later period (1998-2011), trends vary to a greater extent, ranging from approximately -1 to +5% decade-1 in the upper stratosphere. Again, middle and lower stratospheric trends are smaller and for most data sets not significantly different from zero. Overall, however, there is a clear shift from mostly negative to mostly positive trends between the two periods over much of the profile.
We examine the Earth's energy balance since 1950, identifying results that can be obtained without using global climate models. Important terms that can be constrained using only measurements and ...radiative transfer models are ocean heat content, radiative forcing by long‐lived trace gases, and radiative forcing from volcanic eruptions. We explicitly consider the emission of energy by a warming Earth by using correlations between surface temperature and satellite radiant flux data and show that this term is already quite significant. About 20% of the integrated positive forcing by greenhouse gases and solar radiation since 1950 has been radiated to space. Only about 10% of the positive forcing (about 1/3 of the net forcing) has gone into heating the Earth, almost all into the oceans. About 20% of the positive forcing has been balanced by volcanic aerosols, and the remaining 50% is mainly attributable to tropospheric aerosols. After accounting for the measured terms, the residual forcing between 1970 and 2000 due to direct and indirect forcing by aerosols as well as semidirect forcing from greenhouse gases and any unknown mechanism can be estimated as −1.1 ± 0.4 W m−2 (1σ). This is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's best estimates but rules out very large negative forcings from aerosol indirect effects. Further, the data imply an increase from the 1950s to the 1980s followed by constant or slightly declining aerosol forcing into the 1990s, consistent with estimates of trends in global sulfate emissions. An apparent increase in residual forcing in the late 1990s is discussed.
Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of ...total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer's dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.
This study investigates the potential contribution of observed changes in lower stratospheric water vapour to stratospheric temperature variations over the past three decades using a comprehensive ...global climate model (GCM). Three case studies are considered. In the first, the net increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) from 1980–2010 (derived from the Boulder frost‐point hygrometer record using the gross assumption that this is globally representative) is estimated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to ∼0.2 K decade−1 in the global and annual mean; this is ∼40% of the observed cooling trend over this period. In the Arctic winter stratosphere there is a dynamical response to the increase in SWV, with enhanced polar cooling of 0.6 K decade−1 at 50 hPa and warming of 0.5 K decade−1 at 1 hPa. In the second case study, the observed decrease in tropical lower stratospheric water vapour after the year 2000 (imposed in the GCM as a simplified representation of the observed changes derived from satellite data) is estimated to have caused a relative increase in tropical lower stratospheric temperatures by ∼0.3 K at 50 hPa. In the third case study, the wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex (again using a simplified representation of the changes seen in a satellite dataset) is estimated to cause a relative warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere by up to 1 K at 100 hPa from July–October. This is accompanied by a weakening of the westerly winds on the poleward flank of the stratospheric jet by up to 1.5 m s−1 in the GCM. The results show that, if the measurements are representative of global variations, SWV should be considered as important a driver of transient and long‐term variations in lower stratospheric temperature over the past 30 years as increases in long‐lived greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion.
PDF
