Tourism is shaped by a wide range of factors and forces, including exogenous ones that have no direct link with the tourism sector. Natural disasters and unexpected events are prime examples of such ...determining factors, as they have profound effects on individuals and society, and as a result have the potential to affect tourism flows considerably. Several theoretical arguments exist why natural disasters and unexpected events could influence tourist destination choices. However, empirical research to confirm the nature and extent of impacts of disasters on tourism is lacking. To address this gap, this paper incorporates a dataset on natural and man-made disaster events into a model of international tourism flows to evaluate the effect of different types of disasters on international arrivals at the national level. Findings provide evidence that the occurrence of different types of event change tourist flows to varying degrees. Although in some cases a positive effect is estimated, in general the impacts are negative, resulting in reduced tourist arrivals following an event. Understanding the relationship between disaster events and tourism is helpful for destination managers who make critical decisions in relation to recovery, reconstruction and marketing.
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•First global evaluation of the impact of disasters on international tourism flows.•Tsunamis, Floods and Volcanic Eruptions constitute negative motivators.•Volcanic Eruptions impact most negatively on international tourism flows.•High economic consequences of a disaster impact negatively on tourism.•In line with theory, some disasters can also positively affect flows.
Abstract
Context For some countries, favourable climatic conditions for tourism are often associated with favourable conditions for infectious diseases, with the ensuing development constraints on ...the tourist sectors of impoverished countries where tourism’s economic contribution has a high potential. This paper evaluates the economic implications of eradication of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola on the affected destination countries focusing on the tourist expenditures.
Methods A gravity model for international tourism flows is used to provide an estimation of the impact of each travel-related disease on international tourist arrivals. Next the potential eradication of these diseases in the affected countries is simulated and the impact on tourism expenditures is estimated.
Findings The results show that, in the case of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola, the eradication of these diseases in the affected countries would result in an increase of around 10 million of tourist worldwide and a rise in the tourism expenditure of 12 billion dollars.
Conclusion By analysing the economic benefits of the eradication of Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, and Yellow Fever for the tourist sector—a strategic economic sector for many of the countries where these TRD are present—this paper explores a new aspect of the quantification of health policies which should be taken into consideration in future international health assessment programmes. It is important to note that the analysis is only made of the direct impact of the diseases’ eradication and consequently the potential multiplicative effects of a growth in the GDP, in terms of tourism attractiveness, are not evaluated. Consequently, the economic results can be considered to be skeleton ones.
Tourism has begun to be acknowledged as being a significant contributor to the increase in environmental externalities, especially to climate ch ange. Various studies have started to estimate and ...compute the role of the different tourism sectors that contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These estimations have been made from a sectorial perspective, assessing the contribution of air transport, accommodation or other tourism-related economic sectors. In contrast with this and in order to evaluate the impact of tourism on air pollution from a joint perspective, this paper explores the relationship between daily concentrations of PM10 and the number of tourists in Mallorca (Spain). The results show that the daily stock of tourists is not only a significant predictor of air pollution concentration levels but also a variable whose inclusion improves the standard specification of urban air pollution models that have the common feature of using weather conditions as main explanatory variables. Furthermore, by using a Generalized Additive Model in its semi-parametric form it is shown that a 1% increase in tourist numbers can be related to up to a 0.45% increase in PM10 concentration levels.
•Tourism pressure improves models explaining daily concentration levels of particular matter.•Generalized Additive Model outperform traditional linear estimation of air pollution.•Resident population pressure is higher than tourist population pressure in determining PM10.
This article investigates the effects of security threats, namely terrorism, crime, and corruption, on international tourist flows. We estimate a gravity model to evaluate differences in the ...instability measures between country pairs quantifying not only how security threats in the host country have a negative effect on inbound tourism but also how conditions in the origin country also determine tourism flows to a particular destination. Results show that tourists prefer traveling to countries with similar levels of safety and security as exist in their origin country. Moreover, an asymmetric effect has been found. That is, tourists from stable countries prefer traveling to countries with the same conditions, while tourists from unstable countries are more tolerant with insecurity at the destination country. Finally, we find that greater knowledge about the destination country reduces the negative effect of security threats on inbound tourism.
Visa policies are among the most important administrative formalities influencing international tourism flows. This study estimates a structural gravity model for tourism demand to quantify the ...effect of different types of visas. Furthermore, the effect of the monetary cost of the visa and changes in visa policies are evaluated. Thus, two novel databases on visa requirements are used. Our empirical analysis considers worldwide tourism movements, including domestic flows, from 194 origin countries to 163 destinations from 2016 to 2021. The results indicate that imposing visa requirements decreases international tourism movements, especially in developed countries, although the effect depends on the type of visa. Moreover, we find a low elasticity for the monetary cost of the visa.
•We estimate a gravity model to analyze visa impacts on international tourism.•We consider worldwide bilateral tourism flows from 2016 to 2021.•Traditional visas yield a larger impact than more flexible electronic ones.•Visas have a larger impact in developed countries.•We estimate a significant but low elasticity for the monetary cost of the visa.
Objects with curved contours are generally preferred to sharp‐angled ones. In this study, we aim to determine whether different presentation times influence this preference. We used images of real ...objects (experiment 1) and meaningless novel patterns (experiment 2). Participants had to select one of two images from a contour pair, curved and sharp‐angled versions of the same object/pattern. With real objects, the preference for curved versions was greatest when presented for 84 ms, and it faded when participants were given unlimited viewing time. Curved meaningless patterns were preferred when presented for 84 and 150 ms. However, in contrast to real objects, preference for meaningless patterns increased significantly in the unlimited viewing time condition. Participants discriminated poorly between the two versions (curved and sharp‐angled) of the meaningless patterns in the 84‐ and 150‐ms presentations (experiment 3). Therefore, in short times with meaningless patterns, participants selected mostly the curved version without being aware of the difference. In conclusion, presentation time, type of stimulus, and their interaction influence preference for curvature.
This study aims to investigate the role of personal income in the income elasticity of tourism demand and, more specifically, the hypothesis that the richest and poorest individuals both tend to ...react less to changes in income than middle-class individuals, who tend to be more sensitive. To that end, this study applies different strategies within the context of a gravity model, using yearly data from 1995 to 2016 and bilateral tourism flows between 192 countries. Results show that income elasticity is determined to a significant extent by per capita income in the origin country and they confirm the inverted-U relationship between income elasticity and personal income. The study indicates that middle-income countries are more elastic than low- and high-income ones, while high-income countries display an inelastic or nonsignificant relationship.
In empirical research, aggregate tourist arrivals and tourist expenditures are often indistinctly used as measures of tourism demand, depending on the aim of the analysis or, simply, on the ...availability of data. However, when a literature review was conducted, we found differences in the estimated elasticities, accordingly to the measure that was used. This article investigates these two measures, exploring the theoretical link between them in the context of tourism demand modelling at a destination level. Having established the theoretical connection between the two variables with implications on the estimated elasticities, we estimate tourism demand models using international arrivals and tourist expenditures for 191 countries from 1998 to 2016, providing evidence for the theoretical connection. Our results show that when both tourist demand measures are used, the estimated elasticities may differ.
This paper explores the relationship between tourism and traffic congestion and hyper-congestion using the case study of Mallorca (Spain), one of the most important resort destinations in the ...Mediterranean. After discussing different proxies to capture the associated problems to road traffic congestion, different time series models are estimated including considering the days of the week, holidays and meteorological determinants jointly with a daily indicator of tourist population pressure. Results show how the tourist pressure variable is an important determinant in explaining the different alternative indicators of traffic congestion and hyper-congestion, for different roads. Hence it is possible to classify the roads in terms of usage by tourists in order to anticipate the levels of traffic intensity, especially during peak periods.
► Tourism is a significant predictor of traffic congestion and hypercongestion. ► It is possible to estimate a daily tourist pressure indicator that can be related to different road congestion measures. ► Using time series models and a tourism pressure indicator, different roads can be classified in terms of their tourist use.
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